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2009年股东大会 · 芒格:我为什么要投资比亚迪

49 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 6:40
M1
M10:00

这个问题其实是在午饭前,通过 BlackBerry 刚刚发过来的,我想应该是一位现场观众提的。

This question actually just came across the BlackBerry before lunch from what I think is an audience member.

来自 New York 的 Josh Wolf 写道:BYD 看起来更像是一笔 venture capital 式的投机性投资,而不是 value investment。

Josh Wolf of New York writes the following: BYD appears to be more like a venture capital speculative investment than a value investment.

你们二位能不能解释一下这笔投资、你们背后的逻辑,以及你们对它的预期?

Would you both explain that investment, your logic behind it, and your expectations for it?
M2
M20:23

这个我马上交给 Charlie 来回答,不过 Charlie 和我都认为,投资其实只有一种,那就是 value investment。

I'm going to turn that over to Charlie in just one second, but Charlie and I think there is no other kind of investment than a value investment.

换句话说,我们根本不知道,怎么会有人去做一种非 value 的投资。

In other words, we don't know how anybody would invest in a non-value investment.

所以一直以来,我们都对“value”这个说法有点困惑,好像它是和 growth 或者别的什么相对立似的。

And so we've always been puzzled by the term value and saying that contrasts with growth or anything.

所谓 value,说到底,就是看你今天付出的东西,相对于未来可预期的现金流,能不能拿到很多。

Value relates to getting a lot for the expectable flow of cash in the future in terms of what you're laying out today.

所以一直以来——每次有人把我们说成是 value investors,我们总会反问一句:那还能有别的哪种投资人呢?

So we've always— every time somebody characterizes us as value investors, we always ask them, what other kind can there be?

不过在 BYD 这件事上,Charlie 算是我们团队里的负责人,而且他一讲起来就特别激动,所以我可能得稍微管着点他。好,Charlie,你来吧。

But Charlie is our team leader here on BYD, and he gets very excited, so I may have to control him, but go to it, Charlie.
M3
M31:10

对,嗯,当然了,BYD 虽然它的创始人现在只有四十三岁,但它可不是什么早期阶段的 venture capital 公司。

Yes, well, of course, BYD, although its founder is only 43 years old, is not some early-stage venture capital company.

BYD 是全球 rechargeable lithium battery 的主要制造商之一,而这个地位,是在创始人 Wang Chuanfu 的带领下,从零开始硬生生做出来的。

BYD is one of the main manufacturers in the world of the rechargeable lithium battery, and it achieved that position from a standing start at zero under the leadership of the founder, Wang Chuanfu.

后来他们又进入了 cell phone components 领域,也做到了非常大的规模。

And they went on into cell phone components and developed a huge position.

再后来,Wang Chuanfu 做成了这么几件几乎像奇迹一样的事之后,还是不满足,于是决定进入 automobile business。

And then finally, not satisfied with having worked a couple of miracles, Wang Chuanfu decided he would go into the automobile business.

据我所知,他在汽车方面几乎是零经验。

As nearly as I can tell, with zero experience in automobiles.

然后他从零起步,靠着非常少的资本,呃,很快,呃,就造出了中国销量最高的单一车型。

And from a standing start at zero and with very little capital, uh, he rapidly, uh, was able to create the best-selling single model in China.

而他的竞争对手,是中国那些和全球所有主要汽车公司合资的企业,技术惊人,资本也多得多,等等。

And that's against competition that was Chinese joint ventures with all the major auto companies of the world, technological marvels with way more capital and so on.

这可不是什么还没被验证、风险极高的投机性项目。

This is not some unproven, highly speculative activity.

这根本就是个该死的奇迹。

What it is is a damn miracle.
M2
M22:52

我提醒过你们了。

I warned you.
M3
M32:58

当然,Wang Chuanfu 还招了 一万七千 名 engineering graduates。

And of course, Wang Chuanfu has hired 17,000 engineering graduates.

而这些 engineering graduates,是从中国 十三亿 人口里选出来的,他招的还是每届最顶尖的学生。

And those engineering graduates are selected from 1 billion 300 million people in China, and he's hiring at the top of the classes.

所以,你就会看到一种非常了不起的人才聚集。

And, and so you get a remarkable aggregation of, of human talent.

再加上中国人本身具备的那种基本素质——只要不被错误类型的政府束缚住,比如说,错误类型的皇帝。

And then you've got the basic quality of the Chinese people, which, when unfettered from the wrong kind of government, for instance, the wrong kind of emperor.

中国人就会取得非常巨大的成功。

The Chinese people succeed mightily.

当年他们作为苦力、奴隶来到这个国家,后来离开的时候,很快就会变成镇上最重要的人物。

When they came to this country as coolies, slaves, they would leave and soon be the most important people in the town.

所以这是一群非常有天赋的人,从某种意义上说,现在这个时期,可能就是属于中国的时代。

So this is a very talented group of people, and in a sense, this particular period may be the Chinese day.

当然,这些电池,这些 lithium batteries,在世界未来的发展里是绝对必需的。

And of course, these batteries, these lithium batteries, are totally needed in the future of the world.

America 的每一家 utility company 都需要它们。

We need them in every utility company in America.

全世界的每一家 utility company 都需要它们。

We need them in every utility company of the world.

而且我们必须利用太阳的直接能量。

And we have to use the direct power of the sun.

没有了不起的电池,这事做不成,而 BYD 在这方面正好占在最有利的位置上。

Can't do that without marvelous batteries, and BYD is in the sweet spot on that stuff.

而且,而且我知道这看起来像个奇迹,也看起来像是 Warren 和我都疯了,但我觉得我们没有。

And, and I know it looks like a miracle, and it looks like Warren and I have gone crazy, but I don't think we have.
M2
M24:42

呃,嗯,我们俩里头最多也就一个人疯了。

Uh, well, one of us at most.
M3
M34:46

还有,呃,你们等会儿会在附厅看到的那辆车,我觉得那车上除了玻璃和橡胶,其他东西他们全都是自己做的。

And, uh, that car you're going to see in the annex, I think they make everything in that car except the glass and the rubber.

当然,可能也有一两个很小的例外。

There may be a couple of small exceptions.

这简直是前所未闻。

That's unheard of.

有谁进入汽车行业以后,能把每一个零部件都自己做出来,还把车做成畅销产品的?

Whoever went into the automobile business and made every part and made the automobile a best-selling thing?

这可不正常。

This is not normal.

我是说,这个,这个太不寻常了。

I mean, this is, this is very unusual.

而且说到底,当你真正去看这件事的时候,我觉得 Berkshire 能和一家努力去做这么多、而且对全人类都这么重要的事情的公司联系在一起,是一种荣幸。

And I regard it as a privilege to have Berkshire associated with a company that is trying to do so much that's so important for humanity when you get right down to it.

因为它也许现在还是一家小公司,但它的雄心很大;而且我不想去跟 Wang Chuanfu 带领的一万七千名中国工程师作对赌,再加上十万名更有才华的中国人,在一个全新的领域里,按他们想要的方式来打造这一切。

Because it may be a small company, but its ambitions are large, and I don't want to bet against 17,000 Chinese engineers led by Wang Chuanfu, plus 100,000 more talented Chinese in a brand new area constructed the way they want it.

如果这里没有发生伟大的事情,我会非常惊讶。不过考虑到体量,我觉得它在财务上未必会对 Berkshire 重要到那种程度。

I, I will be amazed if great things don't happen here. I don't think, given the size, it can be all that important to Berkshire financially.

但我这辈子从来没有像现在这样,因为能和某件事情有关联而感到这么荣幸,呃,我说的就是 BYD。

But I have never in my life felt more privileged to be associated with something than, uh, than I feel about BYD.
M2
M26:25

顺便说一句,BYD 是 Charlie 去年挑的。

BYD was Charlie's last year.

那些 Irish banks 是我挑的。

The Irish banks were mine.

所以他,他赢了。

So he's, he's the winner.

顺带一提,BYD 一年的营业额有四十亿美元。

BYD, incidentally, does $4 billion a year of business.

我的意思是,所以它并不是一家小生意,而且它很可能还会大得多。

I mean, so it is not a small business, and it will probably get a lot larger.

我们来看 Area 2。

Let's go to Area 2.