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2001年股东大会 · 如果有一天伯克希尔没有公司可买了怎么办?

58 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 6:03
M1
M10:00

大家下午好。

Good afternoon.

我是来自 Virginia 州 Alexandria 的 Jim Hayes。

I'm Jim Hayes from Alexandria, Virginia.

我想感谢你,还有 Mr. Justin,把他的杰作带进 Berkshire 这个大家庭。

I'd like to thank you and Mr. Justin for bringing his masterpiece into the Berkshire family.

不过问题来了,符合收购标准、而且规模又足够大的私人持有公司,你们会不会很快就买完了?那样的话,Berkshire 还能不能继续保持回报呢?

But the question arises, will you soon run out of privately held firms that meet the criteria for acquisitions of sufficient size to continue the returns to Berkshire?
M2
M20:25

嗯,这是个好问题,因为卖给我们的人,其实可以选择把私人企业卖给别家,或者去上市。

Well, that's a good question, because people that sell to us have the option of private business selling elsewhere or going public.

看起来还是有足够多这样的人,他们用心经营企业经营了五十年或者一百年,他们的父母、祖父母在他们之前也是这样,确实会在意企业最终会走向哪里,而不只是想着在当天多拿到最后一块钱。

There seem to be enough people that have built businesses lovingly over 50 or 100 years, and their parents before them and grandparents, that really do care about the eventual disposition of them in some way beyond getting the last dollar that day.

所以我们时不时还是会有这类企业的来源。

That we have a supply from time to time of those businesses.

而且我觉得,以后我们还会继续看到这样的机会。

And I think we'll continue to see them.

不过你确实提了一个很有意思的问题。

You do raise an interesting question.

像这样的企业,在整个经济体里,到底有多少家是值十亿美元或者更多的?

How many businesses like that are worth, you know, $1 billion or more in the whole economy?

嗯,看起来还是有一些的。你知道,我希望能再多一点,不过现在也够。

Well, there seem to be, you know, I wish there were more, but there are enough.

所以我觉得,我们大概平均一年还是会买两家左右,差不多就是这个量级。

So I think we will probably buy, on average, maybe 2 a year, something of that sort.

真正特别大的那种——我的意思是,我们最想做的,其实是一笔一百亿到一百五十亿美元的收购,而符合这个级别的私人公司会非常少。

The really big ones—I mean, what we'd love to make is a $10 or $15 billion acquisition, and there would be very few private companies that would be in that category.

而且就算在这个级别里,你还得找到那种不会搞拍卖的人。

And then from the ones that are in that category, you have to find somebody that is not going to conduct an auction.

我们对拍卖完全不感兴趣。

We just are not interested in auctions.

如果有人想把自己的企业拿去拍卖,我们就没那么有兴趣参与,因为我们买下来以后还需要有人继续来经营它。

If somebody wants to auction their business, we're not that excited about getting in with them because we need people to run it after we buy it.

如果他们是用那种方式看待自己的企业,那我们遇到的不愉快意外,可能就会比过去按照我们一贯标准挑选时要多得多。

And if that's the way they look at their business, we may get more unpleasant surprises than we've tended to get in the past with the kind of criteria we've used.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:04

对,这里面有两个方面。

Yeah, there are 2 aspects of that situation.

一个是,未来会不会有足够多这样的企业?

One is, are there going to be enough businesses?

第二个是,我们会面对其他买家多大的竞争?

And 2, how much competition are we going to get from other buyers?

对我们有利的一点是,如果你是那种喜欢今天这个会场里这种文化的企业主,那就没有别人跟我们一样。

One thing we do have going for us is that if you are the kind of a business owner that likes the culture that's in this room today, there isn't anybody else like us.

其他所有人走的都是不同的路,带着不同的文化。

Everybody else is off on a different path with a different culture.

所以,你看看在场的各位。

So, and look at all you.

我的意思是,这种文化是很受欢迎的,至少对某一群人来说是这样;而且可以肯定的是,未来还会像过去一样,继续有别人会喜欢这种文化,并且觉得把他们的公司并入这里是件很合适的事。

I mean, this culture is popular, at least with a certain group, and surely there'll be other people who like this culture in the future, as in the past, and who will feel right about joining it with their companies.
M2
M22:56

到目前为止,我们在国际上还没什么收获,不过我们希望这种情况能改变。

We haven't had any luck internationally so far, but we would hope that that could change.

大概一个月前我去了 Europe,那边很多次都有人问我,比如说,我们会不会成为 Europe 那些企业的一个潜在选择。

I was over in Europe about a month ago, and I got asked the question a lot of times about whether we would be a prospect for businesses in Europe, for example.

答案是,会的。

The answer is yes.

然后他们就说,那你知道,为什么你们一家公司都还没买呢?

And then they said, well, you know, why haven't you bought any?

我就说,电话从来没响过。

And I said, the phone's never rung.

我也不知道他们觉得那是不是个很聪明的回答,不过他们——不过你知道,我在很多地方都留了我的电话号码。

I don't know whether they thought that was a brilliant answer or not, but they— But I left my phone number a lot of places, you know.

每次我一有机会,我就这么回答。

Every time I got a chance, I gave that answer.

说不定电话就会响。

And maybe the phone will ring.

我得相信,如果过去五年里,我们在欧洲也像在美国这样进入大家的视野,我们本来应该已经买下两三家公司了。

I've got to believe that if we were on the radar screen the same way in Europe over the last 5 years that we have been in the United States, we would have bought a couple of companies.

只是他们没想到我们。

It's just, they don't think of us.

而且在美国,也有很多人不会想到我们,不过现在想到我们的人,确实比五年或十年前多了。

And a lot of people don't think of us in the United States either, but more do now than did 5 or 10 years ago.

而且实际上——我们相当一部分收购机会,都是直接或者间接来自我们过去做过的其他收购,因为当时的卖方对结果很满意。

And we have actually— A reasonable percentage of our acquisitions come directly or indirectly because we've made another acquisition in the past where the seller was happy.

你很难找到谁会说,跟我们打交道让他不满意,而他们又会和自己行业里的其他人,或者别的什么圈子里的人,是朋友。

It's very hard to find anybody that's been unhappy dealing with us, and they're friends with other people in their industry or whatever it may be.

所以现在我们更经常能听到一些机会,因为外面实际上已经有一支你可以说是替我们招揽机会的队伍,就是那些以前跟我们做过生意的人。

So, we hear about things now more often because we actually have what you might call a recruiting force out there of people that have already done business.

这点上很像 NetJets。

It's very much like NetJets that way.

我是说,我们在 Executive Jet、也就是 NetJets 服务上花了很多钱做广告,但即便这样,我们大概百分之七十的生意,还是来自已经在用我们服务的客户。

I mean, we spend a lot of money advertising at Executive Jet, the NetJets service, but still, 70% or so of our business comes from owners who are with us.

他们毫无疑问是我们最好的销售员。

They're by far the best salespeople we have.

顺便说一句,我自己当初也是这样被介绍到这个业务里的。

And incidentally, that's the way I was introduced to the business.

今天也在这个会场里的 Frank Rooney,大概是一九九五年一月左右,跟我讲了他使用 NetJets 的良好体验。

Frank Rooney, who's in this room today, told me about his good experience with NetJets back in January or so of 1995.

然后我就是那时候加入的。

And that's when I joined in.

如果 Frank 当时没告诉我,可能——六年之后,我可能都不会去了解这个业务。

And if Frank hadn't told me, I might— 6 years later, I might not have ever looked into it.

我的意思是,你知道,我可能就直接翻过去那些广告页了。

I mean, you know, I might have just turned the pages past the ads.

但是 Frank 跟我说,你应该去了解一下这个,我就真的去看了。

But when Frank said, you ought to look into this, I did.

嗯,这就是我们希望在收购这件事上能成为我们优势的东西。

Well, that's what we hope we have going for us on the acquisition front.

而且我觉得,在某种程度上,我们确实已经有了。

And I think we do to some degree.

不过我们希望这种优势能更强一些,也希望它在地域上能比现在分布得更广。

But we'd like it to be greater, and we'd like it to be more widespread geographically than it is.
M3
M35:25

我当律师的时候,常说一句话:对任何律师来说,最能带来生意的,就是他桌上已经在做的那些案子。

When I was a lawyer, I used to say the best business getter any lawyer has is the work that's already on his desk.

类似地,对 Berkshire Hathaway 来说,最能带来新生意的,大概也是,呃,我们桌上已经有的这种经营方式。

And similarly, probably the best business getter that Berkshire Hathaway has is the, uh, the business practice that's already on our desk.

对吧,就是这个在把新业务吸引进来。

That's what's driving the new businesses in, right?
M1
M15:52

对,对。

Sure, sure.
M3
M35:53

所以这是个很老派的思路。

So it's a very old-fashioned idea.

你只要把手头已经有的事情做好,同样类型的机会就会不断进来。

You just do well with what you already have, and more of the same comes in.
M2
M26:02

请三号区提问。

Zone 3, please.