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2005年股东大会 · 巴菲特:对大部分人来说,投资什么都不如投资自己

34 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:57
M1
M10:00

我的问题还是跟美国贸易逆差这个话题有关,以及它对美元未来价值的影响。

My question is related to the issue of US trade deficit again and its implications on the future value of the dollar.

你觉得,在美国这边的个人或者企业主,是不是应该担心自己未来以美元计价的收入或者储蓄的购买力,然后把自己的一部分投资分散到非美元计价的证券里?

Do you think an individual or a business owner here in US should be concerned about the purchasing power of his future dollar earnings or savings and diversify his or her investments in non-dollar-based securities?
M2
M20:24

我觉得这对个人来说非常难。

I think it's very tough for individuals.

不管是挑选个股,选择进场时机,还是选择货币。

To either select individual stocks, select individual times to enter the markets, select currencies.

我的意思是,我就是觉得,他们往往会在错误的时间对这个游戏产生兴趣。

I mean, I just, I think that's a game that they tend to get interested in at the wrong time.

在那些平时不仔细跟踪股票的人什么时候开始对股票感兴趣这件事上,某种程度上是有一种逆向选择的。

There's some adverse selection in terms of when people who are, who do not follow stocks carefully get interested in stocks.

而且我觉得,你知道,对大多数人来说,最好的投资,最好的投资其实是投在你自己的能力上。

And I, I think that, you know, the best, the best investment you can have for most people is in your own abilities.

我的意思是,我跟学生聊天的时候,你知道,我会愿意给一个学生——很多情况下,我会很乐意先直接付给他们十万美元现金,来换他们未来全部收入里的百分之十。

I mean, when I talk to students, you know, I would pay a student— in many cases, I would, I would be glad to, you know, pay them $100,000 cash up front for, for 10% of all their future earnings.

所以如果我愿意花十万美元买他们的百分之十,那我就是在给这个人整体估值一百万美元,就这个人站在我面前的资本价值来说。

So if I'm willing to pay $100,000 for 10% of them, I'm valuing the whole person at $1 million, just capital value standing there in front of me.

而且——你为了提升自己能力所做的任何事,很可能都会——或者说,你为自己的生意所做的事,很可能都比开始琢磨自己单独去做外汇投资,对你更有成效。

And those— anything you do to develop your own abilities is probably going to be— or your own business is probably going to be more productive for you than starting to think about individually making commitments into foreign exchange.

如果你在这个国家有一门不错的生意,用美元赚钱,你会过得不错的。

If you have a good business in this country earning money in dollars, you'll do okay.

我的意思是,也许二十年后,你会生活在这样一个世界里:GDP 里有百分之几要拿去偿付我们现在因为这些逆差而形成的债务和所有权成本,但你在 America 还是会过得很好。

I mean, you may, you may live in a world 20 years from now where a couple percent of the GDP is going to service the debts and the ownership that we've created now by, by running these deficits, but you'll do fine in America.

所以我,我不会太担心这个。

So I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't worry about that much.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:05

嗯,如果你看看 Berkshire,你会发现我们其实并不怎么做传统意义上按类别来分配资产。

Well, if you look at Berkshire, you will find that it really doesn't do much of conventional asset allocation to categories.

我们是在寻找机会,而不太在乎这些机会属于什么类别。

We are looking for opportunities, and we don't much care what category they're in.

而且我们当然也不希望,我们寻找机会这件事,被某一套事先设定好的人为分类所左右。

And we certainly don't want to have our search for opportunities governed by some predetermined artificial bunch of categories.

从这个意义上说,我们跟现代投资管理完全不合拍,但我们认为他们错了。

In this sense, we're totally out of step with modern investment management, but we think they're wrong.
M2
M22:38

对了,顺便说一句,我们有百分之八十,或者更多,远远超过百分之八十的资金,是绑在这个国家和美元上的。

Yeah, and incidentally, we, we have 80% of our money or more, well over 80%, tied to, tied to this country and to the dollar.

所以,这可不是说,你知道,我们已经离开这个国家了,或者类似那种情况。

So it's, uh, it's, it's not like, you know, we've left the country or anything of the sort.
M3
M32:53

不过你们什么时候做过一次大的资产配置战略?

But when have you done a big asset allocation strategy?
M2
M22:58

从来没有。

Never.

对,对,我们最后形成的资产组合常常都挺特别的。

Yeah, yeah, we end up with peculiar asset mixes.

我的意思是,如果当年 junk bond 那件事再持续久一点,我们投在里面的可能就不是七十亿美元了,而可能是三百亿美元。

I mean, if, if the junk bond thing had gone on a little longer, instead of having $7 billion in there, we might have had $30 billion in it.

但我们那么做,纯粹是因为那个机会在对我们大声呼喊。

But we were doing that simply based on the fact that it was screaming at us.

我们做股票也是一样。

And we do the same thing with equities.

我是说,很多年前有很长一段时间,我们持有的股票仓位甚至超过了 Berkshire 的净资产,不过那是因为它们很便宜。

I mean, back for many years, we had more than the net worth of Berkshire in equity positions, and— but they were cheap.
M3
M33:24

而且在你们做这种资产配置的时候,我想让你们记住我最喜欢的一句话之一:一件事如果根本不值得做,那也就不值得把它做好。

And I want you to remember one of my favorite sayings as you do this asset allocation: if a thing's not worth doing at all, it's not worth doing well.
M1
M13:37

对。

Yeah.
M2
M23:37

你们也就明白,为什么 Ben Franklin 把衣钵传给 Charlie 了。

You can see why Ben Franklin turned the mantle over to Charlie.

我们现在要休息一下,大家可以出去,到隔壁房间轻松一下,顺便吃午饭。

We're going to take a break now so you can all go out there and enjoy yourself in the adjoining room and have lunch.

我们会在十二点四十五分回到这里。

And we'll be back here at 12:45.

另外房间里的各位,到时候也可以回到这边来,因为我想午饭后这里应该有足够的座位给大家。

And those in the other room might come back to this area because I think we'll have enough seats for everybody after lunch.

谢谢大家,我们十二点四十五分见。

Thank you, and I'll see you at 12:45.