← 返回任务列表

2004年股东大会 · 伯克希尔没有投资沃尔玛的“损失”有多大?

37 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:00
M1
M10:00

我叫 David Farlow,来自 Minnesota 的 Minneapolis。

My name is David Farlow from Minneapolis, Minnesota.

谢谢你,Warren,还有 Charlie。

Thank you, Warren and Charlie.

几分钟前,你提到了向历史学习的重要性。

A few minutes ago, you mentioned the importance of learning from history.

对于过去这几年那些你们本来可以投、但最后没有投的项目,你们从中学到了什么?哪些是你们现在回头看,会后悔当初没有出手的?

What have you learned from the investments you did not make over the last few years that you now regret refraining from?
M2
M20:20

嗯,我们犯过的错误——而且我们确实犯过,有些还相当严重——大致有两类。

Well, the mistakes we made, and we made them, some of them big time, are of two kinds.

一种是,对某些我们看得懂、而且价格也便宜的东西,我们压根就没有投资。也许是因为我们连把整张清单仔细看完都没有足够用功,或者是出于这样那样的原因,我们就是——我们就是没有采取行动。

One is when we didn't invest at all in something that we understood that was cheap, maybe because we weren't even working hard enough at looking at the whole list, or because for one reason or another we just didn't—we didn't take action.

第二种,是我们开始买入某个本来可能成为非常大规模投资的东西,却没有把它做到最大化。

And the second was starting in on something that could have been a very large investment and not maximizing it.

Charlie 非常相信一个理念,就是你不能坐在那里光发呆、犹豫不决;一旦有该做的机会来了,你就应该全力扑进去。

Charlie is a huge believer in, in the idea that you don't sit around sucking your thumb when you can—when something comes along that should be done, that you, you pour into it.

而这也基本上就是我们一直努力在做的事。

And, and that's generally what we've tried to do.

但是,呃,确实有一些时候——通常都是我开始以 X 的价格买入某样东西,结果它涨到 X 加八分之一,或者类似这种让我无法忍受的小幅上涨,我就停手了,或者等它回落。结果在有些案例里,我们少赚了几十亿美元。原因就在于,我实际上被最初那个价格给锚定住了,觉得后面不能出更高的价,但其实之后就算多付一点,也根本无关紧要。

But, but, uh, there have been times, and it's usually happened when I've started buying something at X and it went up to X plus an eighth or some intolerable amount like that, and I quit or waited for it to come back, and we missed, in some cases, billions of dollars of profit because of the fact that I'd gotten anchored, in effect, to some initial price when I could have paid more subsequently, and it really was inconsequential.
M3
M31:35

你还有比 Walmart 更糟的事要坦白吗?

Do you have anything worse to confess than Walmart?
M2
M21:40

没有,Walmart 这件事,到现在已经让我们少赚大概一百亿美元了。

No, Walmart, I cost us about—it's up to $10 billion now.

我让我们少赚了大概一百亿美元。

I cost us about $10 billion.

我当时本来打算在 Walmart 拆股前、每股大概二十三美元的时候,买入一亿股。Charlie 说,这听起来不像是我提过的最糟糕的主意。对他来说,我是说,这已经算是高得离谱的表扬了。

I set out to buy 100 million shares of Walmart pre-split at about $23, and Charlie said it didn't sound like the worst idea I ever came up with, which is, from him, I mean, it's just ungodly praise.

后来你知道,我们先买了一点,然后它又稍微涨了一点。

And then, you know, we bought a little, and then it moved up a little bit.

然后我就想,嗯,也许它会跌回来吧,或者怎么着。

And I thought, well, y'know, maybe it'll come back, or what.

谁知道我当时到底在想什么?

Who knows what I thought?

我是说,你知道,可能只有我的精神科医生才能告诉我。

I mean, y'know, only my psychiatrist could tell me.

就是这种坐在那里犹豫不决、不肯多付一点点钱的毛病,到现在的代价大概就在一百亿美元这个量级。

And that thumb-sucking reluctance to pay a little more, ah, the current cost is, is, is in the area of, of, of, of $10 billion.

而且这样的例子还不止这一个。

And there have been other examples, too.
M1
M12:36

啊,啊。

Ah, ah.
M2
M22:38

而且很遗憾,未来大概还会有更多这样的例子。

And there will probably be more examples in the future, unfortunately.

不过换个角度说,这事也不会真的困扰我们。

But that is—that's—on the other hand, it doesn't bother us.

我的意思是,你知道,稍微拿出来讲一讲,也许还是有点启发意义的,我也很高兴回答这个问题。

I mean, you know, it, uh, it's, it's maybe instructional to talk about it just a little, and I'm glad to respond to the question.

但归根到底,我们在 Berkshire 还会犯很多错误;过去犯过,未来也还会犯。

But in the end, we're going to make a lot of mistakes at Berkshire, and we've made them in the past, we'll make them in the future.

你知道,这就像打高尔夫一样——如果你每一杆都直接一杆进洞,那这个游戏很快也就没什么意思了。

You know, it—if every shot you hit in golf was a hole-in-one, it wouldn't be—you know, the game would soon lose interest.

所以你偶尔总得把几杆打进树林里,这样才会——才会稍微更有意思一点。

So you have to hit a few in the woods occasionally just to make it, make it a little more interesting.

我们会尽量别太频繁地这么干。

We'll try not to do that too often.

但这会是我们犯的那一类错误。

But those will be the kind of mistakes we make.

我们大概不会犯那种会让我们损失特别多钱的错误,虽然我们以前也犯过——像 Dexter Shoe 那次就是——但今后大概不会再犯那一类了。

We probably won't make the kind of mistakes, although we have, we made one with Dexter Shoe, but we probably won't make the kind that would cost us a ton of money.

我觉得你们以后会发现,更多会是因为没做而犯的错,而不是因为做了而犯的错。

There'll be much more of omission than commission, I think you'll find in the future.

Charlie,你还想再补充一点吗?

Charlie, you want to add any more?
M3
M33:31

对,至少我们会一直反复想过去那些我们错失机会的时候。

Yeah, at least we are constantly thinking about the past occasions when we blew opportunities.

因为这些不会出现在财务报表里,那些你本来有、但没有抓住的机会,大多数人其实不会太费心去想。

Since those don't hit financial reports, the opportunities you had but didn't accept, most people don't bother thinking about them very much.

至少这一类错误,我们不会犯。

And at least that is a mistake we don't make.

我们会逼着自己直面那些因为错失机会而犯下的错误,就像我们刚才做的这样。

We rub our own noses in our mistakes in blowing opportunities, as we just did.
M2
M23:59

好,第二个问题。

Okay, number 2.