← 返回任务列表

1999年股东大会 · 股东提问:我今年30岁,要怎么才能像你一样赚到300亿

40 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:51
M1
M10:00

下午好,Buffett 先生,Munger 先生。

Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger.

我叫 Grant Morgan。

My name is Grant Morgan.

我从 New York City 来。

I'm here from New York City.

刚才您提到过,跟您刚开始的时候相比,今天的投资和商业环境要难得多。

Earlier you had acknowledged that it is a more difficult investment and business environment today than it was when you first started out.

我的问题是,如果您今天重新开始,在三十出头这个年纪,面对现在这样的环境,您会有哪些做法跟以前不一样,哪些又会一样,才能复制您的成功?

My question is, if you were starting out again today in your early 30s, what would you do differently or the same in today's environment to replicate your success?

简单说,Buffett 先生,我怎么才能赚到三百亿美元?

In short, Mr. Buffett, how can I make $30 billion?
M2
M20:31

早点开始。

Start young.

Charlie 一直都说,最关键的一点是,我们很早就开始在一座很长很长的山坡顶上,滚这个小雪球。

Charlie's always said that the big thing about it is we, we started building this little snowball on top of a very long hill.

所以我们是在非常年轻的时候就开始把雪球往下滚了。当然,雪球——复利的本质就像一个会粘雪的雪球一样,越滚越大;诀窍就是你得有一条很长的坡,这就意味着,要么你很年轻就开始,要么你得活得非常——得活到很老。

So we started at a very early age in rolling the snowball down, and of course the snowball—the nature of compound interest is it behaves like a snowball of sticky snow, and the trick is to have a very long hill, which means either starting very young or living very—to be very old.
M3
M31:00

这个——

The—.
M2
M21:01

我啊,你知道,如果我是在投资世界里重新来一遍,我会完全照原样做。

I, you know, I would do it exactly the same way if I were doing it in the investment world.

我的意思是,如果我今天刚毕业,手上有一万美元可以投资,我会从 A 开始。

I mean, if I were getting out of school today and I had $10,000 to invest, I'd start with the A's.

我会一家一家公司这样看过去,而且我大概会更关注小公司,因为我操作的资金也比较小,而那样更有机会发现被忽略的东西。

I would start going right through companies, and I probably would focus on smaller companies because I would be working with smaller sums, and there's more chance that something is overlooked.
M1
M11:22

对。

Right.
M2
M21:22

在那个领域里。

In that arena.

而且就像 Charlie 刚才说的,这不会像一九五一年那样,当时你随便翻一翻,就能找到各种各样一眼就从纸面上跳出来的机会。

And as Charlie has said earlier, it won't be like doing that in 1951 when you could leaf through and find all kinds of things that, that just leapt off the page at you.

但这是唯一的做法。

But that's the only way to do it.

我的意思是,你必须买企业,或者说买企业的一小部分,也就是股票;你必须在有吸引力的价格买入,而且你得买进好企业。从投资的角度来说,这个建议一百年后也一样成立。

I mean, you have to buy businesses, and you—or little pieces of businesses called stocks, and you have to buy them at attractive prices, and, and you have to buy them, and you have to buy into good businesses, and that advice will be the same 100 years from now in terms of investing.

事情的核心就是这个。

That's what it's all about.

你不能指望别人替你做这件事。

And you can't expect anybody else to do it for you.

我的意思是,人们不会——他们不会把那些很棒的小投资机会告诉你。

I mean, people will not—they will not tell you about wonderful little investments.

投资行业本来就不是这么运作的。

It's not the way the investment business is set up.

一九五一年一月我第一次去 GEICO 的时候,那一整年里,

When I first visited GEICO in January of 1951, the rest of that year.

后来我又去了 Blyth and Company,实际上还去了另一家很有名的公司,一个在保险领域非常领先的分析机构——A. M. Best and Company。

I subsequently went down to Blyth and Company and actually to one other firm that was a leading firm, that was a leading—A. M. Best and Company—that was a leading analyst in insurance.

你知道,我觉得自己发现了一个特别棒的东西,所以我想看看这些专门研究保险股的大型投资机构是怎么说的。

And, you know, I thought I discovered this wonderful thing and I'd see what these great investment houses that specialized in insurance stocks said.

结果他们说我根本不知道自己在说什么。

And they said I didn't know what I was talking about.

你知道,这对他们来说根本没什么兴趣。

You know, it wasn't of any interest to them.

你得遵循你自己的判断——你得弄清楚自己知道什么,不知道什么。

You've got to follow your own—you've got to learn what you know and what you don't know.

而在你真正懂的那个范围里,你必须非常积极地去追踪,一旦发现机会就要行动。

And within the arena of what you know, you have to pursue it very vigorously and act on it when you find it.

而且你不能老想着到处找人来同意你。

And you can't look around for people to agree with you.

你不能老是四处看,指望别人甚至能知道你在说什么。

You can't look around for people to even know what you're talking about.

你得自己思考。

You have to think for yourself.

你要是这么做了,就会发现一些东西。

And if you do, you'll find things.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M33:06

对,大多数人在这个过程中最难的一关,是第一个十万美元。

Yeah, the hard part of the process for most people is the first $100,000.

如果你是白手起家,从零开始,那攒到十万美元,对大多数人来说都是一场很漫长的挣扎。

If you have a standing start at zero, getting together $100,000 is a long struggle for most people.

而且我想说,那些相对比较快做到的人,如果他们对保持理性这件事很有热情,就会得到帮助。

And I would argue that the people who get there relatively quickly are helped if they're passionate about being rational.

他们会非常积极、善于抓机会,而且会长期把自己的花销压得远低于收入。

Very eager and opportunistic and steadily underspend their income grossly.

我觉得这三个因素都非常有帮助。

I think those 3 factors are, are very helpful.
M2
M23:51

那第六位。

So on six,