M10:42
对，Charlie 和我根本不去理会宏观预测。
Yeah, Charlie and I don't pay any attention to macro forecasts.
你知道，我们一起共事已经五十四年了，我想不出有哪一次，我们在对一只股票或者一家公司做决定的时候，是基于什么宏观层面的讨论——也就是说，我们会去谈宏观；而且，你知道，我们根本不清楚未来具体会是什么样。
You know, we have worked together now for 54 years, and I can't think of a time when we made a decision on a stock or on a company where a macro discussion—where we've talked about macro, and, you know, we don't know, you know, what things are going to look like in any precise way.
顺便说一句，很自然地，我们觉得如果连我们都不知道，那别人也不知道。
And incidentally, naturally, we think if we don't know, nobody else knows.
这算是我们的一点小自负吧。
That's a little conceit that we have.
所以，你知道，为什么要花时间去谈那些你其实根本不了解的东西呢？
And so we, you know, why talk—why spend time talking about something you really don't know anything about?
我的意思是，人们整天都在这么做，但这并没有什么成效。
You know, I mean, people do it all the time, but it's not very productive.
所以我们聊的是企业本身。
So we talk about the businesses.
还有，呃，我喜欢 Bill Gross。
And, uh, I like Bill Gross.
这听起来有点像 Lloyd Bentsen 当年那句“他是我的朋友”，你知道。
Sounds like Lloyd Bentsen, you know, back in the—he's a friend of mine.
呃，不过，他对未来怎么想，对我一点影响都没有。
Uh, but I don't—it doesn't make any difference to me what he thinks about the future.
任何经济学家怎么想，对我也一点影响都没有。
It doesn't make any difference to me, you know, what any economist thinks about it.
我大体上觉得，美国会继续运转得很好。而且你知道，在我整个成年的人生里，甚至在那之前，始终都有各种各样的观点，在说今年会发生什么、明年会发生什么，诸如此类，但其实没人知道。
I have a general feeling that America will continue to work well, and I don't—you know, that there's all—throughout my adult lifetime and before that, there's always been all kinds of opinions that, you know, about what's going to happen this year, next year, or anything like that, and nobody knows.
但在我看来，有些事你是可以非常非常有把握地知道的，比如说，十年后、二十年后，BNSF 运送的车皮数量会更多；他们提供的服务不会有替代品；西部会有两家重要的铁路公司，东部也会有两家重要的铁路公司；而且他们拥有的资产，重置价值高得惊人。
What you do know, with a very high degree of certainty in my view, is that BNSF will be carrying more carloads 10 years from now, 20 years from now, that there will be no substitute for the service that they provide, that there will be 2 important railroads in the West and 2 important railroads in the East, and that they will have an asset that has incredible replacement value.
没有人能再造出这样的东西，而且他们提供这些服务，也会得到合理的回报。
Nobody could turn out something like it, and that they'll get paid fairly for what they do.
这其实并不复杂。
And it's not very complicated.
因为那些你不知道、别人也不知道的预测，而去忽视你明明知道的东西，在我们看来，简直就是愚蠢。
And to ignore what you know because of predictions about what you don't know and what nobody else knows, in our view, is just plain silly.
所以，我们并不反对别人谈什么 new normal、old normal，或者介于两者之间的 normal，但这些对我们没有任何意义。
So we don't have anything against somebody talking about a new normal or an old normal or an in-between normal, but it doesn't mean anything to us.
我自己的判断是，只要别买得太贵，持有好企业的人，不管是持有十年、二十年，还是三十年，结果都会非常不错。
My own guess is that people will do very well owning good businesses if they don't pay too much for them, you know, whether they hold them for 10 years or 20 years or 30 years.
但如果他们试图通过听各种关于商业前景的预测，来挑时机买入卖出，那他们最后会让自己的 broker 赚得很好，而自己就没那么好了。
And if they try and time their purchases in some way by listening to forecasts about what's going to happen in business and try and buy and sell them, they're going to do very well for their broker and not so well for themselves.