M20:24
嗯，我忘了是哪一章——我想是《The General Theory》的第十二章。Charlie，你记得吗，还是第——不，不。
Well, I forget which—I think it's Chapter 12 of The General Theory. Do you remember, Charlie, or is it chapter— No, no.
《The General Theory》里有一章，是讲市场、市场心理、市场参与者的行为之类的。我觉得，除了 Ben Graham 在《The Intelligent Investor》里的第八章和第二十章之外，你会发现，在所有投资著作里，读那一章能得到的智慧，跟任何一本比都毫不逊色。
There's one chapter in The General Theory that relates to markets and the psychology of markets and the behavior of market participants and so on, that probably, aside from Ben Graham's two chapters, 8 and 20, in The Intelligent Investor, I think you'll find get as much wisdom from reading that as anything written in investments.
你在《The General Theory》里看到它的时候，就会知道我说的是哪一章。
And you'll know it when you see it in The General Theory.
就是那种一看到就会特别跳出来、明显是在讲 securities 之类内容的一章。
It's a chapter that jumps out to you about securities and so on.
可能是第十二章，不过我也可能记错了。
It could be Chapter 12, but I may be wrong on that.
不过我建议你去读一读。
But I would recommend reading that.
Keynes 和 Graham 虽然出发点非常不同，但在三十年代前后、差不多同一时期，他们对长期来看最稳妥的投资方式，得出了相同的结论。
Keynes and Graham, from vastly different starting points, came to the same conclusion, uh, at about the same time in the '30s as to the soundest way to invest over time.
不过他们在分散投资这个问题上的想法还是有一些不同。
They differed some on their ideas on diversification.
Keynes 认为，分散化的程度应该比 Graham 主张的少得多。
Keynes believed in diversifying far less than did Graham.
但我会说，Keynes 在二十年代一开始的理论其实是错的，他当时基本上是在试图预测商业周期和市场；到了三十年代，他转向了对企业做基本面分析，而且做得非常出色。
But Keynes started off with the wrong theory, I would say, in the '20s, and essentially tried to predict business cycles and markets, and then shifted to fundamental analysis of businesses in the '30s and did extremely well.
差不多就在那个时候，Graham 也在写他最早的一些材料——我记得 Janet Lowe 在她写 Ben Graham 的那本书里，实际上还收录了一点 Keynes 和 Ben 之间的通信。
And about the same time Graham was writing his first material—I think Janet Lowe, in her book on Ben Graham, actually has a little correspondence that took place between Keynes and Ben.
所以我建议你去读读那些内容。
So I would advise you to read that.
还有他的一些信——也就是 Keynes 的信——是他写给一些 life insurance societies 和 colleges 的共同受托人的，我觉得你可能也会觉得很有意思。
And there's some letters of his—that is, of Keynes's—that he wrote to co-trustees of life insurance societies and colleges and so on that I think you'd find interesting too.
现在是一点十五分了，我和 Charlie 得去参加 Berkshire 的董事会会议，大概十五分钟后开始。
It's 1:15, and Charlie and I have to go to our directors' meeting at Berkshire, which starts in about 15 minutes.
所以，感谢大家今天过来。
So we thank you all for coming.
谢谢。
Thank you.