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1998年股东大会 · BIll Ackman 比尔艾克曼在1998年股东大会上的提问

46 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:48
M1
M10:00

好的,来自纽约的 Bill Ackman。

Yes, Bill Ackman from New York.

有没有什么价格,会让一家公司用自己的资本去回购股票变得不合适?

Is there a price at which it's inappropriate for a company to use its capital to buy back its stock?
M2
M20:11

你再说一遍。

Give me that again.
M1
M10:11

比如说,Coca-Cola 的市盈率到四十倍的时候,那还是个聪明的资本配置方式吗?

For example, Coca-Cola at 40 P/E, is that a smart place for Coke to deploy capital?
M2
M20:18

嗯,如果你用市盈率来说,按那样的倍数去回购股票,听起来确实是个很高的价格。

Well, it sounds like a very high price when you name it in terms of a P/E to buy back the stock at that sort of number.

不过我会这么说,Coca-Cola 到现在已经存在一百一十二年了,在这一百一十二年里,很少有哪个时候——如果真有的话——是不适合 Coca-Cola 回购自己股票的。

But I would say this, Coca-Cola has been around 112 years now, and there are very few times in that 112 years, if any, when it would not have been smart for Coca-Cola to be repurchasing its shares.

在我能理解的那些企业里,Coca-Cola 在我看来,可能是世界上最好的大型企业。

Coca-Cola is probably, in my view, among businesses that I can understand, it's the best large business in the world.

我的意思是,这是一门非常了不起的生意。

I mean, it is a fantastic business.

而且,呃,Coke 回购股票我们是很喜欢的,因为我们的持股比例会提高。

And, uh, we love it when Coke repurchases shares and our interest goes up.

我们一九八八年买入的时候,持有 Coca-Cola 百分之六点三的股份。

We owned 6.3% of Coca-Cola in 1988 when we bought in.

实际上,几年之后我们还稍微增持了一点。

We actually increased that a little bit a few years later.

但如果他们当时没有回购股票,我们现在大概只会持有 Coke 百分之六点七或者百分之六点八。

But if they had not repurchased shares, we probably would own about 6.7% or 6.8% of Coke now.

而实际上,通过回购,我们现在持有的是略高于百分之八。

As it is, we own a little over 8% through repurchases.

今天,全世界大概会卖出十亿份八盎司的 Coke——或者说 Coca-Cola 的产品。

There are going to be about 1 billion 8-ounce servings of Coke sold around the world—or Coca-Cola products sold around the world today.

其中百分之八就是八千万份,百分之六点八就是六千八百万份。

8% of that is 80 million, and 6.8% is 68 million.

所以,等于说,Berkshire Hathaway 这个账户在全球范围内多卖出了额外的一千二百万份。

So there are 12 million extra servings for the account of Berkshire Hathaway being sold around the world.

而且他们每卖一份能赚略高于一美分,所以,你知道,这会让我有点兴奋。

And they're making a little over a penny a serving, so, you know, that gets me kind of excited.

所以我想——我能告诉你的就是,我赞成 Coke 回购股票。

And I think it—all I can tell you is I approve of Coke repurchasing shares.

我当然更希望他们是在十五倍市盈率的时候回购,但当我去看资本的其他用途时,我依然觉得这是一种非常好的资本使用方式。

I'd a lot rather have them repurchasing shares at 15 times earnings, but when I look at other ways to use capital, I still think it's a very good use of capital.

也许有一天,他们能在二十倍市盈率的时候买回来。

And maybe the day will come when they can buy it at 20 times earnings.

如果真能那样,我希望他们出去借很多钱,在那样的价格上大量回购。

And if they can, I hope they go out and borrow a lot of money to buy a ton of it at those prices.

而且我觉得,如果 Coke 采取一种持续一致的回购策略,那我们二十年后会过得更好。

And I think we will be better off 20 years from now if Coke follows a consistent repurchase approach.

我不认为这对很多公司都成立。

I do not think that is true for many companies.

我的意思是,我觉得回购现在已经变成一种时髦做法了,而且很多回购的理由都很荒唐。

I mean, I think that repurchases have become in vogue and done for a lot of silly reasons.

所以我并不认为每家公司回购股票都是经过充分理性思考的。

And so I don't think everybody's repurchase of shares is well-reasoned at all.

你知道,我们看到有些公司成吨成吨地发放期权,然后又在更高的价格上回购股票。

You know, we see companies that issue options by the ton and then they repurchase shares much higher.

我六岁的时候就开始读投资方面的东西了,我想我读到的第一条原则就是,你知道,低买高卖。

You know, I started reading about investments when I was 6, and I think the first thing that I read was, you know, buy low, sell high.

但这些公司呢,通过他们的期权操作,你知道,他们是低价卖出,然后高价买回。

But these companies, through their options, you know, they sell low and then they buy high.

他们这套公式,跟我当年学到的可不一样。

And they've got a different formula than I was taught.

所以,这里面有不少做法是我们不赞成的。

So there are a number that we don't approve of.

但是,当我们持有一家很棒的公司的股票时,我们是喜欢回购这个想法的,哪怕价格高得都让你流鼻血。

But when we have— when we own stock in a wonderful business, we like the idea of repurchases, even at prices that may give you nosebleeds.

一般来说,结果往往证明这是一项相当不错的政策。

It generally turns out to be a pretty good policy.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M33:30

嗯,我觉得答案是,在任何一家公司里,股价都可能高到一个程度,高到公司再回购自己的股票就很愚蠢了。

Well, I think the answer is that in any company, the stock could get a price so high it would be foolish for the corporation to repurchase its shares.
M2
M23:39

当然。

Sure.
M3
M33:41

而且甚至还可能出现非常严重的滥用。

And you can even get into gross abuse.

在股灾之前,Enserch 这些公用事业公司曾经疯狂回购自己的股票,把这当成一种把股价往上推的办法。

Before the crash, the Enserch utilities were madly buying their own shares as a way of promoting the stock higher.

到最后,这就像一个巨大的 Ponzi scheme。

It was like a giant Ponzi scheme at the end.

所以,各种各样的过度行为都是有可能发生的;但是,真正伟大的公司,就算是在很高的市盈率下回购,也可能是明智的。

So there's all kinds of excess that's possible, but the really great companies that buy at high price-earnings ratios, that can be wise.
M2
M24:08

我们在 GEICO 的持股比例,从百分之三十三涨到了百分之五十,而我们一分钱都没掏,因为 GEICO 一直在回购自己的股票。

Our interest in GEICO went from 33% to 50% without us laying out a dime because GEICO was repurchasing its shares.

我们从中受益很大;不过很显然,在价格更低的时候,我们受益要大得多。

And we benefited substantially, but we benefited a lot more, obviously, when prices were lower.

我是说,这些年来,我们在 Washington Post Company 的持股,已经从百分之九点几涨到了百分之十七点几。

I mean, we would— our interest in the Washington Post Company has gone from 9 and a fraction percent to 17 and a fraction percent.

而这整个过程中,我们一股都没买。

Over the years without us buying a single share.

但是,不管是 Post、还是 Coke,还是很多别的公司,现在做回购,已经没有过去那种捡便宜的机会了。

But the Post or Coke or any number of companies don't get the bargain in repurchasing now that they used to.

不过我们仍然认为,在很多情况下,这大概还是资金最好的、最好的用途。

We still think it's probably the best, best use of money in many cases.

八区。

Zone 8.