The Big Story: What Singapore's biggest en bloc shake-up in 30 years could mean for your home — 文稿

F10:17

欢迎收看 The Big Story。

Welcome to The Big Story.

我是 Hwang Bin Jung。

I'm Hwang Bin Jung.

新加坡的 collective sale 规则很快可能迎来近 30 年来最大的一次大改。

Singapore's collective sale rules could soon see their biggest overhaul in nearly 30 years.

Ministry of Law 提议把较老的私人住宅发展项目进行 en bloc 所需的同意门槛，从目前的 80% 下调到：楼龄 40 到 59 年的项目降到 70%，楼龄 60 年及以上的降到 65%。

The Ministry of Law has proposed lowering the consent threshold required for older private residential developments to go en bloc from the current 80% to 70% for estates aged 40 to 59 years, and 65% for those aged 60 years and above.

同时，提议加强对少数业主的保障，包括在集体出售出价失败后，采取措施抑制反复发起集体出售尝试。

At the same time, it is proposing stronger safeguards for minority owners, including measures to discourage repeated collective sale attempts after failed bids.

所以，这些变化会给新加坡的 en bloc 市场注入新活力吗？

So will these changes breathe new life into Singapore's en bloc market?

它们又会对屋主、开发商，以及新加坡未来的住房格局意味着什么？

And what could they mean for homeowners, developers, and the future of Singapore's housing landscape?

那么，现在加入我们一起拆解这些问题的是 Mogul.sg 的 Chief Research Officer Nicholas Mak。

Well, joining us now to break it all down is Nicholas Mak, Chief Research Officer at Mogul.sg.

嗨，Nick。

Hi, Nick.

欢迎来到节目。

Welcome to the show.

M11:08

谢谢邀请。

Thank you for having me.

F11:09

非常感谢你来跟我们聊。

Thank you so much for joining us.

那么，Nick，你对这些有关 en bloc 的提议，第一反应是什么？

Well, Nick, what are your immediate reactions to these proposed changes regarding en bloc?

我的意思是，你觉得这是在正确的时间做出的正确举措吗？

I mean, do you see this as the right move at the right time?

M11:21

我觉得第一反应是看到政府把业主同意门槛从 80% 降到了 70%。

Well, I think the immediate reaction is seeing that the government has lowered the hurdle from the owners' consent from 80% to 70%.

我有点担心少数业主，因为即使在 80% 的情况下，基本上也就是有五分之一业主的权利被削弱了一点。

I'm a bit worried for the minority owners because even at 80%, well, basically, one-fifth of the owners' rights are a bit eroded.

现在有句话说，man's home is his castle。

Now, there's a saying, a man's home is his castle.

所以在新加坡，en bloc 出售的监管其实相当明确。

So in Singapore, en bloc sale regulation is quite well defined.

而且在其他一些国家，比如香港，en bloc 出售要通过，仍然需要 100% 业主同意。

And also in some other countries, like for example in Hong Kong, they still need 100% of the owners to agree for an en bloc sale to go through.

在这里，等这项新法例通过后，一些比较老的公寓，比如楼龄超过 40 年的，只要 70% 业主同意，en bloc 出售就能通过。

Here with this new legislation, when it gets passed, some of the older condos, like those more than 40 years old, only 70% of the owners need to agree for the en bloc sale to go through.

这意味着大约三分之一业主的声音可能会被压下去。

That means about one-third of the owners' voice may be silenced.

F12:14

那你为什么觉得政府决定现在出手？

Then why do you think the government has decided to act now?

M12:17

这是自 1999 年以来，collective sale 规定最重大的几项变化之一。那时候，政府把业主同意比例从 100% 降到了 80%。

Well, this is one of the most major changes to the collective sale regulations since 1999, when the government lowered the owners' consent level from 100% to 80%.

我觉得政府现在想这么做，可能有几个原因。

And I think there's a few reasons why the government may want to do that now.

我先说其中三个。

Let me just mention three of them.

其中一个是，政府一直在提供很多住宅土地。从 2023 年初到今年，政府一共已经卖出或者计划出售大约 66 个住宅地段，平均每年是 16.5 宗地块。

One of them is that the government has been supplying a lot of residential land. Since the start of 2023 to this year, the government has sold or planned to sell a total of about 66 residential sites, and that's an average of 16.5 land parcels annually.

现在，说到住宅发展用地的供应，GLS，也就是 Government Land Sales Programme，一直承担了很大一部分工作。

Now, when it comes to the supply of residential development land, the GLS, Government Land Sales Programme, has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

所以，要保持这样的土地供应速度其实很难，因为每卖出一块地给私人开发商，就少了一块可以留给公共住房或其他用途的地。

So it's difficult to keep up this pace of land supply because every piece of land that is sold to a private developer is one fewer piece of land for public housing or other uses.

所以，私人土地出售市场就必须被带动起来。

So the private land sale market has to be activated.

第二个原因是为了城市更新，因为这些公寓有些可能已经很老了，维修成本也可能在不断上升。

Secondly is for urban renewal, because some of these condominiums may be getting very old and the maintenance cost could be rising.

但这并不总是适用于他们所有人。

But that does not always apply to every one of them.

他们当中有些其实保养得还是相当不错的。

Some of them are still quite well maintained.

第三，是让一些业主如果愿意的话，能够把土地价值上涨带来的收益变现。

And thirdly is to allow some of the property owners to capitalize on the growth in the land value if they choose to do so.

所以，en bloc sale 的价格溢价通常至少比单个住宅单位的公开市场价格高出百分之四十到五十，这样就能让业主做到这一点。

So en bloc sale, with its price premium of at least 40% to 50% above the open market price of individual housing units, would allow the owners to do so.

F13:46

我的意思是，新加坡上一次大规模的 en bloc 热潮是在二零一七年和二零一八年，那时候完成了六十多宗 collective sales，总额接近二百亿新元。

I mean, Singapore's last major en bloc boom was in 2017 and 2018, when more than 60 collective sales worth nearly S$20 billion were completed.

但你觉得单靠这个，足以现在重新带动 en bloc 市场吗？

But do you think that alone is enough to revive the en bloc market now?

那地价、重建成本，或者开发商的兴趣呢？这些是不是更大的障碍？

What about land prices, redevelopment costs, or developer appetite? Are they bigger hurdles?

M14:10

嗯，确实有几个主要障碍。我觉得开发商的兴趣，其实也跟市场情绪，还有开发商对市场的前景判断有关。

Well, there's a few major hurdles, and I think developers' appetite, well, that goes with the market sentiments and developers' outlook for the market.

不过，障碍确实不少。

But there's a few hurdles.

即使 en bloc sale 规定有了新的调整，业主，也就是潜在卖家，还是会面对其中一些障碍。

Even with the new changes to the en bloc sale regulations, owners, potential sellers, still face some of these hurdles.

其中一个就是替代住房价格在上涨，因为有些项目，尤其是在郊区的，大多数业主都是自住业主。

And one of them is the rising prices of the replacement homes, because some of these developments, especially if they are in the suburban areas, majority of the owners are owner occupiers.

所以如果房产通过 collective sale 卖掉，他们就必须很快去买一套替代住房。

So if the property is sold through a collective sale, they have to very quickly buy a replacement home.

而他们看到的是，附近其他房子的价格都在上涨。

And what they see is that the prices of those other homes nearby are rising.

所以他们就会要求更高的价格，这样你才可以补偿他们去买替代住房的成本。

And so they will demand a higher price so that you can compensate them for buying a replacement home.

而这些更高的价格其实可能会让 en bloc sale 告吹。

And these higher prices could actually derail the en bloc sale.

第二个障碍是，私人土地的 plot ratio 在过去二十七年里其实都没有提高，尽管 master plan 已经修订了大约五次。

The second hurdle is that the plot ratio on privately owned land has not actually increased in the last 27 years, even though the master plan has undergone about 5 revisions.

如果政府把所有这些私人公寓，包括那些比较老的公寓的 plot ratio 提高，我觉得这会自动带来更多 en bloc sales。

And if the government were to increase the plot ratio of all these private condominiums, including the older ones, I think this will automatically lead to more en bloc sales.

第三个障碍，是政府售地计划持续供应住宅地段，这些地段其实是在跟 en bloc sale 市场竞争。

And the third hurdle is the steady supply of government land sale residential sites, which are competitors to the en bloc sale market.

第四个障碍，是针对外国人征收的百分之六十 ABSD。

And the fourth hurdle is the 60% ABSD imposed on foreigners.

现在，在一些比较老的高档公寓里，尤其是在第九、第十和第十一区，有相当一部分单位是外国人持有的，外国人就不太愿意卖，因为如果他们把单位卖掉，又想买一套替代住房，他们就得为替代住房价格的百分之六十支付 ABSD。

Now, in some of the older prime condos, especially in District 9, 10, 11, where a significant proportion of the units are owned by foreigners, the foreigners are reluctant to sell because if they were to sell the units and they want to buy a replacement one, they will have to pay 60% of the price of the replacement home as ABSD.

所以他们会抵制 en bloc sale。

And so they will resist the en bloc sale.

F16:01

有道理。

Makes sense.

那既然这样，我就得问一下，我的意思是，哪些发展项目会在新规则下成为 en bloc 的候选项目？

Well, then in that case, I've got to ask, I mean, which developments will become en bloc candidates under the new rules?

你知道，有没有一些一再差一点没成功的项目，现在会有第二次机会？

Are there, you know, projects that have repeatedly fallen short that could now get a second chance?

M16:14

嗯，我觉得比较有机会的候选项目，应该是那些已经超过四十年的。

Well, I think that some of the more prime candidates would be those that are above 40 years old.

而且土地面积也不能太大。

And also the land area is not very large.

如果土地面积非常大，比如说 Redhill View 或者 Mandarin Gardens，这些都是例子。

If the land area is very huge, like for example, Redhill View or Mandarin Gardens, those are some examples.

首先，单位很多，所以会有不同意见。

Firstly, there are many units, so there will be opposing views.

其次，整块地的价格总额可能会超过十五亿新元，甚至可能到二十亿新元。

And secondly is that the price quantum of the land parcel could exceed $1.5 billion or maybe even $2 billion.

所以对一些开发商来说，这个金额可能太贵了，或者说太大一笔了，不太容易消化。

So that might be a bit too expensive or too huge a sum for some developers to digest.

F16:51

那么，虽然重新发展可以让老旧屋苑焕然一新，但这也意味着有些业主即使反对这笔交易，也可能会被迫出售。

Well then, while redevelopment could rejuvenate aging estates, it also means some owners could be forced to sell despite objecting to the deal.

所以，到底谁会从这些改革中获益最多呢？

So who exactly stands to benefit the most from these reforms?

M17:06

嗯，很明显，最可能受益的会是投资者，因为对他们来说，房产就只是一个投资资产。

Well, obviously, the ones that would benefit most could be investors, because to them, the property is just an investment asset.

他们不住在里面，也不住在那里，不会和邻居、和住在那里的居民建立友情。

They don't live in it, they don't live there, they don't form friendships with their neighbors, with the residents who live there.

所以他们可能会是大赢家之一。

So they could be one of the big winners.

不过在任何一次 en bloc 出售过程中，业主通常会分成三组。

But in any en bloc sale process, the owners are typically divided into three groups.

有支持 en bloc 的人，有因为各种原因反对 en bloc 出售的人，还有就是持观望态度、两边都不站的人。

You have the pro-en bloc people, you have those who oppose the en bloc sale for various reasons, and then you have those who sit on the fence.

所以我觉得，虽然 en bloc 出售成功之后，每个人都会拿到自己应得的那份收益，但还是会有一些人觉得，他们刚刚失去了自己的社交网络，失去了一个社区，也失去了和邻居之间的友情。

So I think although when the en bloc sale goes through, everybody gets their fair share of the proceeds, but there will be some people who may feel that they have just lost their social network, they lost a community and the friendships with their neighbours.

F17:51

那反过来说，谁会吃亏呢？

Then on the flip side, who loses out?

少数业主，尤其是在这些屋苑里住了几十年的年长居民，会不会也有被施压出售的风险？

Is there a risk minority owners, especially elderly residents living in these estates for decades, could feel pressured into selling as well?

M18:01

我认为，因为其中一项条例变化是，收集签名的期限——过去是十二个月——现在会缩短到原来的一半。

I think that because one of the changes to the regulations is that the time period to collect the signature—in the past, it used to be 12 months—will now be shortened to half of that.

而这实际上可能会促使支持 en bloc 出售的业主加大力度，包括使用一些高压手段，试图让其他人同意出售。

And that might actually cause the pro-en bloc sale owners to step up their efforts, including using some high-pressure tactics to try to get others to sell.

我觉得吃亏的人，不一定只是那些可能对这套 condo 有感情依恋的年长人士。

And I think one of the people who lose out may not necessarily be older people who might have sentimental attachment to the condo.

是的，确实会有这样的人，但整体来说，消费者也会受到影响。

Yes, there will be some of those people, but also consumers on the whole.

因为假设那处房产、那座 condo 维护得很好，它可能楼龄比较旧，但保养良好，地段也好，而且单位面积更大，这其实会给整体消费者更多选择。

Because if let's say that property, that condo is well maintained, it could be old but well maintained and well located, and they have bigger units, it actually gives consumers on the whole more choices.

你可以选择买一个比较新的 condo 单位，但房间很小；也可以选择买一个较旧、但房间更大的单位。

You can either buy a newer condo unit that has very small rooms, or you can buy an older one with bigger rooms.

对吧。

Right.

所以，让消费者有更广的选择，包括让这些较旧的 condo 继续留在市场上，其实对整个市场来说是好事。

And so letting consumers have wider choices, including letting some of these older condos remain on the market, is actually good for the market on the whole.

F19:01

当然。

Definitely.

我的意思是，虽然较低的同意门槛让重新发展变得更容易，但这也意味着有些业主可能会在投票中被多数压过。

I mean, while the lower consent threshold makes redevelopment easier, it also means some owners could be outvoted.

现在，政府已经作出回应，包括提高反对者的赔偿上限，缩短签名收集期，并让反复失败的尝试更难一直拖下去。

Now, the government has responded by increasing compensation limits for objectors, shortening the signature collection period, and making it harder for repeated failed attempts to drag on.

但你觉得这些措施有没有取得合适的平衡？

But do you think these measures strike the right balance?

现在这个平衡，是不是已经过度偏向多数一方，或者少数一方了？

Has the balance now tipped too far in favor of either the majority or the minority?

M19:29

我觉得，政府对规则已经做的、或者提议要做的这些调整，效果会怎么样，我们接下来会慢慢看到。

I think that what the government has done or proposed to do to the rules is something that we have seen what the effects will be like in due course.

但至少，他们正在回应少数业主的一些担忧。

But at least they are addressing some of the concerns of the minority owners.

不过整体来说，我想还是要让时间来证明，因为这以前从来没有这样试过。

But on the whole, I guess time will tell because this has never been tried out before.

你知道，不过我觉得这算是比较有分寸的做法。

You know, but I think it's a bit measured.

而对一些少数业主来说，我想，也需要有一个渠道，让他们至少可以表达自己的一些担忧。

And for some of the minority owners, I guess, there also needs to be a venue where they can at least voice some of their concerns.

但我前面提到的那些障碍，比如说替代住房价格上涨，这些措施修订其实并没有真正解决。

But those hurdles that I mentioned earlier, like, for example, rising prices of replacement homes, those amendments to the measures have not really addressed.

F110:09

好的。

Okay.

我的意思是，分析师估计，像 Braddell View、Laguna Park 和 Pine Grove 这些老旧项目，在现有规划下，合起来可以重建成多出几千套住宅。

I mean, analysts estimate that ageing developments like Braddell View, Laguna Park, and Pine Grove could collectively be redeveloped into thousands more homes under current plans.

如果更多老旧住宅区能够成功重建，未来五到十年，这会怎样重塑 Singapore 的私人住宅格局呢？

If more ageing estates are successfully redeveloped, how could this reshape Singapore's private housing landscape over the next 5 to 10 years?

M110:29

嗯，一方面，假设你刚才提到的那些项目当中，有一些占地面积非常大，比一般政府卖地的地块要大很多。

Well, on one hand, if let's say some of those projects that you mentioned sit on very large land parcels compared to the typical government land sales parcels.

如果它们被重建，那也要看新的发展项目会被分配到什么样的 plot ratio。

If they are redeveloped, it also depends on what the plot ratio is going to be assigned for the new development.

理想情况下，新的 plot ratio 应该比现在这块地上已有的更高，这样新的项目就可以有更多总楼面面积，也能提供更多住宅单位，来满足人口增长的需求。

Ideally, it should be a higher plot ratio than what is existing on the land right now, so that the new development can have more gross floor area and more housing units to meet the needs of a growing population.

所以一方面，我们可能会看到这些地块上出现更密集、更高的建筑。

So on one hand, we could be seeing more densely packed and taller buildings on some of these sites.

但这也意味着，你刚才提到的那些地点，会失去一些原本的地标。

But it also means a loss of some of the landmarks in those locations that you mentioned.

F111:14

那这样一来，最终会不会也有助于改善住房供应，并让私人住宅价格趋于平稳呢？

Well, then could this also eventually help improve housing supply and moderate private home prices?

不过，这种影响会不会太慢，买家其实感觉不到？

But will any impact be too gradual for buyers to notice?

M111:25

嗯，我认为这肯定会增加住房供应，但我不确定它会不会让私人住宅价格放缓，因为这要取决于开发商买下地块时的地价，也取决于未来某个时候新项目推出时的经济状况和市场情绪。

Well, I think it will definitely increase the housing supply, but I'm not sure if it will moderate private home prices because that will depend on the land price that the developer acquired the site, as well as the economic conditions and market sentiment when the new project is launched sometime in the future.

开发商总是会尽量把产品定在市场能够承受的最高价格。

Developers will always try to price the product at the maximum price that the market is able to afford to buy.

所以未来的地价，其实是政府和私人开发商都很难控制的东西。

So future land prices actually is something that's difficult for the government and also for private developers to control.

F112:02

明白。

I see.

这些提案也是在政府刚刚放宽修订后的 ABSD remission rules、给开发商更多时间完成大型 en bloc 项目之后，才过了几天就提出的。

Well, these proposals also come just days after the government gave developers more time to complete large en bloc projects under revised ABSD remission rules.

把这些最新提案放在一起看，我们是不是正在看到一个大得多的策略，用来加快城市更新？

Taken together with these latest proposals, are we seeing a much, much bigger strategy to accelerate urban renewal?

M112:21

我认为是的。

I think so.

我觉得所有这些都应该放在一起看，包括修订后的 ABSD remission rules，还有政府取消私人住宅业主购买 HDB 转售组屋之前的十五个月等待期。

I think everything should be taken together, including the revised ABSD remission rules and also the government removing the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners to buy HDB resale flats.

所以这可能也是政府在上周宣布之前考虑到的另一个原因，也就是说，政府希望通过 en bloc sales 推出更多项目之后，一些业主在 en bloc 出售后，也可以选择购买或者降级搬到 HDB 组屋。

So that is another possible reason that the government has in mind before they made the announcement last week, which is that by hoping more projects can be launched through en bloc sales, some of the owners also have the option to buy or downgrade to HDB flats after the en bloc sale.

F112:57

不过，即使 Parliament 通过了这项法案，成功与否仍然取决于屋主是否能在价格上达成一致，以及开发商是否相信项目在商业上仍然可行。

Well, even if Parliament passes the bill, success still depends on, you know, homeowners agreeing on price and developers believing projects remain commercially viable.

除了同意门槛之外，在今天的市场里，最终决定一宗 en bloc 交易能否成功的因素是什么？

Beyond the consent threshold, what will ultimately determine whether an en bloc deal succeeds in today's market?

我的意思是，价格预期仍然是最大的卡点吗？

I mean, is price expectation still the biggest sticking point?

M113:17

是的，绝对是。

Yes, most definitely.

因为你看，从业主的角度来说，没有人想在某种意义上承受损失。

Because you see, from the perspective of the owners is that nobody wants to make a, in a way, a loss.

这里说的损失，是指生活水平下降。

A loss in the sense of a downgrading in their standard of living.

假设现在这套房产在公开市场上可以卖三百万美元，通常他们会期望价格比公开市场价高出百分之四十到百分之五十，这样他们才会觉得通过 collective sale 出售这套房产是值得的，然后也许把一部分收益留下来做退休规划，再去买另一套房间数量差不多的单位，尤其是有孩子的家庭，或者多代同堂的家庭。

If let's say right now the property can be sold on the open market for $3 million, typically they will expect a price premium of 40% to 50% above the open market price to make it worthwhile for them to sell that property through a collective sale, keep some of the proceeds perhaps for retirement planning, and then to buy another unit that has roughly the same number of rooms, especially for families with children or multi-generation families.

他们需要三间卧室，有些人甚至可能需要四间卧室。

They need 3 bedrooms and some of them maybe even 4 bedrooms.

所以他们需要买一套卧室数量相同的替代住房。

So they'll need to buy a replacement home with the same number of bedrooms.

没有人愿意卖掉自己现在这种比较老、但单位面积通常相当大的项目，然后再去买一套小很多的房子。

Nobody wants to sell their existing older development, which tends to be fairly large units, and then buy something that is much smaller.

到最后，他们可能还得额外掏更多钱，才能买到较新的单位。

And in the end, they still might have to fork out more money to buy the newer units.

嗯，这其实就是会让交易谈不成的关键问题。

Well, that is a deal breaker, actually.

F114:21

明白。

I see.

那如果你现在是一个，比如说四十年或五十年楼龄的 condo 的业主，你应该考虑些什么呢？

Well, if you're the owner of, say, a 40 or 50-year-old condo today, what should you be thinking about?

这是应该欢迎的事情吗？

Is this something to welcome?

他们是不是也应该注意其中的取舍？

Should they also be mindful of the trade-offs?

M114:34

嗯，我觉得他们确实应该注意这些取舍，即使是那些真的在考虑 en bloc sale 的业主也一样。因为首先，他们必须确保自己有足够的人数，也就是有足够多愿意支持的业主。

Well, I think they should be mindful of the trade-offs, even those who are really thinking of en bloc sale, because firstly, they must make sure they do have the numbers, the number of owners who are willing to support it.

而且这些规则也把责任放在支持 en bloc sale 的业主身上，要他们确保如果要尝试发起 en bloc sale，他们的尝试次数是有限的。

And because the rules also put the burden on these pro-en bloc sale owners to make sure that if they were to try to launch their en bloc sale, they have a limited number of tries.

如果失败了，就会有一个冷静期。

If they were to fail, there's a cooling-off period.

所以只有在你相当确定成功机会比较高的时候，才应该去做。

So do it only if you are quite certain chances of success is fairly high.

F115:05

好的，你刚才分享了很多很有价值的见解。

All right, some great insights from you there.

非常感谢你今天加入我们，Nick。

Thank you so much, Nick, for joining us today.

M115:10

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thank you for inviting me.

F115:11

谢谢。

Thank you.

刚才是 Mogul.sg 的 Chief Research Officer，Nicholas Mak。

That was Nicholas Mak, Chief Research Officer at Mogul.sg.

这里是 The Big Story，我是 Hongbin Zhang。

This has been The Big Story with me, Hongbin Zhang.

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