M20:55
我们，嗯，给出这些数字，是因为我们觉得它们很重要，既包括每股投资额，也包括每股 operating earnings，不把投资带来的 earnings 算进去，另外也不把保险承保的利润或亏损算进去，因为我们觉得最差也就是打平，但它们每年确实会上下波动。
We, um, we give those figures because we think they're important, both the, uh, investments per share and the operating earnings per share, excluding the earnings that come from the investments and, uh, and leaving out insurance underwriting profits or losses because we think at worst they'll break even, but they do bounce around from year to year.
这些 operating earnings 的数字是税前的，所以我不确定你用的折现因子是针对税前还是税后，但我们觉得这些数字很重要。
Uh, those figures are pre-tax on the operating earnings, uh, so I'm not sure whether you're applying your discount factor to pre-tax or after-tax, but we think they're important.
而且我预计——嗯，operating earnings，你知道，几乎肯定
And I would expect that— well, the operating earnings, you know, are almost certain,
会增长。
Uh, to increase.
至于增长多少，谁也说不准，但这个数字大概率会上升。
Uh, how much, you know, who knows, but that number is likely to go up.
投资这块目前和年底时差不多，不过它可能会上升，也可能会下降，这要看我们能不能再买到更多 operating businesses。
The investments are still about the same, uh, as at year-end, but that— they could go up or down based on whether we're able to buy more operating businesses.
我们的目标是，我们的目标是在某种程度上把这两个数字都做大。
Our goal is, our goal is to build both numbers to some extent.
但我们的首要目标，是把 operating earnings 这个数字做大。
But our primary goal is to build the operating earnings figures.
我们从来不会——如果现在让 Charlie 和我当场把我们认为 Berkshire 内在价值是多少写在信封里，那我们俩谁都不会只写一个具体数字。
We never— if Charlie and I had to stick a number in an envelope right now in front of us as to what we thought the intrinsic value of Berkshire was, well, neither one of us would stick a figure.
我们会写一个区间，因为给出一个单一、精确的数字是很荒唐的。
We'd stick a range because it would be ridiculous to come up with a single specific number.
因为这里面不仅包括我们现在拥有的这些业务，也包括未来我们要怎么运用这些资本。
Which encompasses not only the businesses we own but what we're going to do with the capital in the future.
不过，即便是我们各自给出的区间，差异也只会比较小，而且我今天的看法和明天的看法也许会有一点不同，但绝不会差得很大。
But even our ranges, uh, would differ modestly, that, uh, and they might, might differ tomorrow in terms of how I would feel versus today, but not, not dramatically at all.
不过我想这么说，我觉得我当然——嗯，你们其实已经收到过一两次信号了。
Uh, I would say this, uh, I think I certainly, uh— Well, you've received signals once or twice.
当我们说我们会回购自己的股票时，很明显，那是因为我们认为它的交易价格低于我们对内在价值所做的保守区间的下限。我们几年前这么做过一次。
When we said we would buy in our stock, we obviously thought that it was selling below the bottom of a conservative range of intrinsic value, and we did that once some years ago.
但我们这么一说，股价当然就涨上去了，所以结果我们一股都没买到。
And by saying so, of course, the stock went up, and so we never got any stock bought.
所以，用我们这种方式来处理这件事，某种程度上会有点自我挫败，因为我们等于是明明白白告诉大家，我们回购股票的唯一原因，就是因为我们觉得它便宜。
And so there's sort of a self-defeating factor about taking the kind of approach to it that we do in terms of really telling people that the only reason we'll buy in stock is because if we think it's cheap.
这在美国企业界根本不是标准做法。
That is not standard practice in corporate America at all.
事实上，美国企业某种程度上往往是在股价高的时候更积极地回购，而不是在股价低的时候。
In fact, corporate America to some extent buys in their stock more aggressively when it's high than when it's low.
不过，也许他们脑子里有某种计算公式，是我这个脑子理解不了的。
But, uh, they may have some equation in their mind that escapes my reasoning power.
不过，呃，我会——我们并不认为 Berkshire 的股价被高估了。
But the, uh, I would— we do not regard Berkshire as overpriced.
我会说，呃，我们，我们就在非常近的一段时间里，遇到过一家非常非常大的国际公司，呃，它很可能有兴趣和 Berkshire 做点什么。
And I would say that, uh, we, we had very fairly— very recently, we had a very, very large international company that, uh, might well have been interested in doing something with Berkshire.
那是一家非常非常好的公司，但它的规模大到我们没法接，除非我们要动用很多股票。
And it's a very, very nice company, but it's bigger than we can handle unless we would use a lot of stock.
而我们不会用股票。
And we won't use the stock.
我们会——我们，我们，嗯，就是觉得那样一来，我们的股东最后会吃亏。
We would— we, we, um, we just think our shareholders would come out behind.
那会是一家很棒的公司，而且，你知道，会制造很多头条新闻，但到头来，我们的股东会变得更穷，因为我们的股票是一种货币，而如果它没有被充分定价，那么，那么，那么，呃，把它当货币来用就是个大错误。
Be a wonderful company and, you know, make a lot of headlines, but in the end, our shareholders would be poorer because our stock is a currency, and, and unless it's fully valued, it's, it's, it's, uh, a big mistake to use it as a currency.
当然，我们在 Burlington 那笔交易里用过一些股票，但我们用了更多得多的现金，实际上，股票只占了百分之三十，而且那样做是值得的，但还是很痛苦。
Now, we used some in the Burlington deal, but we used a whole lot more cash, and in effect, we only used 30% for stock, and it was worth doing, but it was painful.
如果 Lubrizol 想做一笔涉及股票的交易，我们就不会做。
And if Lubrizol wanted to do a deal involving stock, we would not have done it.
我一开始就把这话告诉 James Hambrick 了。
I, I told, uh, James Hambrick that right off the bat.
所以，如果是要用股票来买的话，我们对收购 Lubrizol 完全没兴趣。
So we had absolutely no interest in buying Lubrizol.
我们非常愿意拿出接近九十亿美元的现金，而且，在我看来，我们拿到了与这笔钱相称的价值。
We were perfectly willing to give, you know, close to $9 billion in cash, and we, in my view, we are getting our money's worth.
但我们不会用 Berkshire 的股票来支付其中相当大的一部分，因为那等于是在送出我们已经拥有的那些企业的一部分。
But we would not have given a significant portion of it in Berkshire stock because we would be giving away part of the businesses that we already own.
而我们喜欢 Burlington，我们喜欢 See's Candy，我们，我们喜欢 Iscar。
And we like Burlington, and we like See's Candy, and we, we like Iscar.
为了得到另一家很好的企业，就把这些企业的一部分送出去，从财务上说，对我们的股东并不合理。
And to give away a portion of those, even to get another very good business, would not make financial sense for our shareholders.
所以，你们可以从这番话里，自己推断我们对内在价值是怎么算的。
So you can draw your own deductions about our calculations of intrinsic value from that statement.
Charlie？
Charlie?