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2018年股东大会 · 芒格谈人工智能对人类会产生怎样的影响

36 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:23
M1
M10:00

嗨,Warren 和 Charlie。

Hi, Warren and Charlie.

感谢你们所做的一切。

Thank you for everything.

我是来自上海 JNQ Global 的 David,我们是一家投资管理机构。

I'm David from JNQ Global, an investment manager in Shanghai.

我来这里已经八年了。

I've been here for 8 years.

如果把投资当成奥运会里的一个项目,你们就是我们的冠军队。

If investment is a sport in the Olympics, you are our champion team.

所以我的问题是,面对快速发展的 machine intelligence,你们怎么看这种新的竞争在未来会怎样影响资本配置的效率?

So my question is, facing the fast-growing machine intelligence, how do you see the new competition impact the capital allocation productivity in the future?

想请问 Charlie,从更广义的经济利益角度来看,资本配置的第一原则是什么?

For Charlie, what is the first principle of capital allocation from general economic interest points of view?

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:38

嗯,这是两个问题。

Well, 2 questions.

machine intelligence。

Machine intelligence.

恐怕我唯一有的 intelligence,还是来自某种不是机器的东西,而且我觉得我也不会去学 machine intelligence。

I'm afraid the only intelligence I have is, is being provided by something that's not a machine, and I don't think I'm going to learn machine intelligence.

如果你问我怎么靠我自己的 intelligence 去赢围棋,我做不到,而且我觉得我这个年纪也太大了,不适合再去学 computer science 了。

If you ask me how to beat the game of Go with my own intelligence, I couldn't do it, and I think it's too old for me to learn computer science.

总的来说,我认为 machine intelligence 确实已经起作用了。

Generally, I think that the machine intelligence has worked.

毕竟,现在机器已经能打败最顶尖的人类围棋选手了。

After all, a machine now can beat the best human player of Go.

但我觉得,这个领域里的炒作成分,比它真正可能取得的成就要多。

But I think there's more hype in that field than there is probable achievement.

所以我不认为 machine intelligence 会把这个世界改变得那么大。

So I don't think the world is going to be changed that much by machine intelligence.

会有一些影响,但不会特别巨大。

Some, but not hugely.

另一个问题是什么来着?

And what was the other question?

嗯,一个是 machine intelligence。

Well, one was machine intelligence.
M3
M31:41

我觉得他想问的是资本配置。

I think he was getting at capital allocation.

哦,对。

Oh yeah.
M2
M21:44

那是个太宽泛的问题了。

That's such a general question.

一般来说,我们始终都在努力找最好的东西,找值得买的东西。

Generally speaking, we're always trying to get the best, to get something that's worth buying.

如果你待在 academia 里,人脑其实会排斥这种做法,因为你完全可以在学期一开始先讲一句宣告式的话,接下来剩下的时间就什么都不用干了。

And the human mind rejects that if you're in academia, because you could come in and make one declaratory sentence at the opening of the semester and you wouldn't have anything to do for the rest of the— of your time.

所以人们总想找出某种公式。

So people want to find some formula.

这就是我说的 physics envy。

It's what I call physics envy.

这些人希望世界能像 physics 一样运转,但除了 physics 本身之外,这个世界并不是那样的,而那种虚假的精确性除了给你惹麻烦之外,没有任何用处。

These people want the world to be like physics, but the world isn't like physics outside of physics, and that false precision just does nothing but get you in trouble.

所以我会说,你必须掌握那些普遍性的理念,而且你得像我们其他人一样,通过长期努力慢慢提升自己的判断力。

So I would, I would say you've got to master the general ideas, and you've got to work to improve your judgment slowly, the way all the rest of us had.

而且我觉得,对大多数个人来说,想靠 machine intelligence 获得很多个人收益,希望并不大。

And I don't think most individuals have much hope of individual gain from machine intelligence.
M3
M32:49

对,我也这么认为。

No, I don't.

机器要是能下赢围棋之类的,或者甚至能赢国际象棋,不管是什么,我确实会觉得挺厉害。

I'm impressed when machines beat Go or something of the sort, or even win at chess or whatever it may be.

但说到资本配置或者投资这方面,我真不觉得它们能带来多少东西。

I don't really think they bring much to the table in terms of capital allocation or investing.

当然,也可能是我完全漏掉了什么,你知道,也许我只是没看见外面到底有什么。

And then I may be missing something entirely, you know, maybe I'm just blind to what's out there.
M2
M23:14

你漏掉的是一大堆很能赚手续费的废话。

You're missing a lot of very remunerative fee-earning twaddle.
M3
M33:18

对,好吧,好吧,那这事就算说完了。

Yeah, well, well, that takes care of that.

那我们继续,进入第八站。

So we'll go on to station 8.