M10:00
不错的企业，买一个整体组合。
Fine businesses, get a cross-section.
在我看来，对大多数人来说，最好的做法就是持有 S&P 500 index fund。
In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 index fund.
别人会想办法卖给你别的东西，因为那样他们能赚更多钱。
People will try and sell you other things because there's more money in it for them if they do.
我不是说那是他们有意识的，呃，行为。
And I'm not saying that that's a conscious, uh, act on their part.
大多数、大多数优秀的销售人员，自己都相信自己那套说辞。
Most, most good salespeople believe their own baloney.
我是说，这本来就是成为一个优秀销售人员的一部分。
I mean, that's part of being a good salesperson.
我相信我这辈子肯定也干过不少这种事，但这很人性化，如果你把一件事反复说得够多。
And I'm sure I've done plenty of that in my life too, but it's, it's very human if you keep repeating something often enough.
这就是为什么律师会让证人把一些话一遍又一遍地重复，这样，呃，等到他们上证人席的时候，他们就会，呃，不管一开始是不是真的，自己都会相信了。
That's why lawyers have the witnesses keep saying things over and over again that, uh, by the time they get on the witness stand, they'll, they'll, uh, they'll believe it whether it was true in the first place or not.
但是这个，那个，呃——在我看来，你面对的是一件从根本上有利的事情。
But the, the, uh— you are dealing with something fundamentally advantageous in my view.
那就是持有普通股。
In owning common stocks.
我这辈子剩下的时间都会押注 America，我也希望 Berkshire 未来接班的人也这么做。
I will bet on America the rest of my life, and I hope my successors at Berkshire do it.
现在，我们是用两种不同的方式来做这件事。
Now, we do it in 2 different ways.
我们要么买下整个企业，要么买企业的一部分。
We do it by buying entire businesses, and we buy parts of businesses.
我想，呃，强调一下——嗯，我想给你们看几个数字，这和我们第一季度的操作，还有我们四月份做的事情，呃，都能对应起来。
And I would like to, uh, emphasize that— well, I'd like to give you a few figures that, uh, will tie in from our, uh, activities in the first quarter and also what we've done in April.
我们并不是总能看对——我们确实会尽量挑那些我们认为自己看得懂的企业。
We are not right about— we do try to pick businesses that we think we understand.
我们不买 S&P 500，不过，呃，我们在买的时候，更喜欢把整个企业买下来。
We don't buy the S&P 500, but, uh, and we like to buy the entire businesses when we buy them.
呃，但这种机会并不是经常有。
Uh, but we don't get a chance to do that very often.
大多数最好的企业都不会整体拿出来卖，但我们完全不介意买企业的部分权益。
Most of the best businesses are not available for sale in their entirety, but we don't mind in the least buying partial interests in businesses.
而且我们更愿意持有一家很棒公司的百分之六、七，或者八，你知道，就把它本质上看成我们在那家公司里的合伙权益，呃，而我们可以通过 marketable securities 得到这样的机会。
And we would rather own 6 or 7 or 8%, you know, of a wonderful company, and regard it as a partnership interest essentially in that company, uh, and that we get an opportunity to do that through marketable securities.
有时候这样的机会多一些，有时候少一些。
And sometimes we get more opportunities than others.
说到这里，我希望我已经说服你去，呃，去押注 America。
And with that, I hope I've convinced you to, uh, to bet on America.
我不是说现在就是买股票的正确时机，如果你说的正确，是指它们接下来会上涨而不是下跌，那我不知道它们明天、下周、下个月或者明年会怎么走；但我希望我至少懂得一点——嗯，嘿，我觉得我可以买一个整体组合，然后在二十年或三十年的时间里获得不错的结果。
I'm not saying that this is the right time to buy stocks, if you mean by right that they're going to go up instead of down, I don't know where they're going to go in the next day or week or month or year, but I hope I know enough to know— well, hey, I think I can buy a cross-section and do fine over 20 or 30 years.
而且，呃，你也许会觉得，对于一个八十九岁的人来说，这种看法有点太乐观了，呃，但是——呃，我真心希望每个人买股票的时候，都把它当成是在买企业的合伙权益，而不是把它们看成可以来回倒腾、赌涨赌跌的筹码。
And, uh, you may think that's kind of, for a guy 89, that optimistic viewpoint, uh, but, uh— uh, I hope that really everybody would buy stocks with the idea that they're buying partnerships in businesses, and they wouldn't look at them as chips to move around, uh, up or down at.