M20:58
嗯,我觉得这是条非常非常宽的护城河,但我也认为,你说的那些趋势确实正在发生。
Well, I think it's an enormously wide moat, but I think it's also true that the trends you described are happening.
不过你知道,今天全世界会消费掉十九亿份八盎司装的 Coca-Cola 产品——不是 Coca-Cola 这一款,而是 Coca-Cola 旗下的产品。
But, you know, there will be 1.9 billion 8-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products—not Coca-Cola, but Coca-Cola products—consumed in the world today.
我不觉得你会看到什么革命性的变化,但我认为,所有食品和饮料公司都会随着时间推进,去调整自己,以适应消费者明确表达出来的偏好。
And I don't think you're going to see anything revolutionary, and I think you will see all food and beverage companies adjust to the expressed preferences of the consumers as they go along.
任何一家公司,如果无视自己的消费者,都不可能做得好。
No company ever does well ignoring its consumers.
但是我预测,二十年后,人口会更多,Coca-Cola 饮料箱的消费量也会比现在更多,而且会多出相当一截。
But there will be—I would predict 20 years from now, there will be more people, there will be more Coca-Cola cases consumed than there are now by some margin.
早在上世纪三十年代末,Fortune 就发表过一篇文章,说 Coca-Cola 的增长已经结束了。
Back in the late 1930s, Fortune ran an article saying that the growth of Coca-Cola was all over.
而我们在一九八八年买入 Coca-Cola 股票的时候,你知道,人们对这个产品的增长前景其实也没有那么兴奋。
And when we bought our Coca-Cola stock in 1988, you know, people were not that enthused about growth possibilities for the product.
我现在坐在这里,作为一个人在过去三十年里,自己摄入的全部热量当中,有四分之一都来自 Coca-Cola。
I sit here as somebody who, for the—in the last 30 years, one-quarter of all the calories I've consumed come from Coca-Cola.
这可不是夸张。
And that is not an exaggeration.
我有四分之一都是 Coca-Cola。
I am one-quarter Coca-Cola.
我也不确定是哪四分之一,不过——你知道,如果你真要说的话——我不认为这里面真有什么非此即彼的选择。
I'm not sure which quarter, but—and, you know, if you really—I don't think there is this choice.
我觉得,开心地做自己在做的事,这一点有很多值得说的地方。
I think there's a lot to be said about being happy with what you're doing.
如果我这一辈子吃的都是 broccoli、Brussels sprouts 之类的东西,我觉得我反而活不了这么久。
If I'd been eating broccoli and Brussels sprouts and all that all my life, I don't think I'd live as long.
你知道,那样的话,我每次吃饭都会觉得,嗯,简直像去坐牢一样。
You know, every meal I would approach thinking, you know, it's like going to jail or something.
不,我觉得 Charlie——Charlie 已经九十一岁了,他的习惯跟我也没差太多。
No, I think Charlie—Charlie's 91, and his habits aren't that different than mine.
是稍微好一点,不过——这一点是毫无疑问的。
They're slightly better, but—there's no question about it.
按我的看法,糖是一种特别有帮助的物质。
The way I look at it is sugar is an enormously helpful substance.
它能防止动脉过早软化。
It prevents premature softening of the arteries.
而我的看法是,就算我因此稍微早死一点,那也不过是少经历几个月在养老院里流口水的日子。
And the way I look at it is that if I die a little sooner, that'll just be avoiding a few months of drooling in a nursing home.
Charlie 和我几乎享受过我们吃过的每一顿饭,唯一的例外,大概就是我在我祖父家吃饭、他逼我吃那些该死的绿色蔬菜的时候。
Charlie and I have enjoyed every meal we've ever had, virtually, except when I was eating at my grandfather's and he made me eat those damn green vegetables.
显然,人们的偏好确实在发生一些变化,不过这个领域里的很多产品,生命力之持久还是很惊人的。
There obviously are some shifts in preferences, although it's remarkable how durable items are in this field.
我记得 Berkshire Hathaway 大概从一九八一年前后到一九八四年,一直是 General Foods 的最大股东,后来这家公司被 Philip Morris 收购了。
Berkshire Hathaway, I believe, was the largest shareholder of General Foods from about 1981 or thereabouts to about 1984, when it was bought by Philip Morris.
那已经是三十多年前的事了。
And that's 30-plus years ago.
而那些同样的品牌,先是经历了 Philip Morris,后来被分拆成 Kraft,再后来 Kraft 又被拆成了两部分。
And those same brands, they went through Philip Morris, they got spun out as Kraft, they broke Kraft into two pieces.
但现在我们要拥有这些品牌了,而且它们都是非常棒的品牌。
But now we're going to own those brands and they're terrific brands.
Heinz 可以追溯到一八六九年。
Heinz goes back to 1869.
番茄酱是稍微晚一点才出来的;他们当时其实还破过产,那时候他们主要指望的是 horseradish 之类的东西,不管具体是什么。
The ketchup came out a little later; they went bankrupt actually when they were counting on horseradish or whatever it was.
不过番茄酱在十九世纪七十年代推出了,而 Coca-Cola 则可以追溯到一八八六年。
But the ketchup came out in the 1870s, and Coca-Cola dates to 1886.
所以,相当有把握的一点是,未来还会有非常非常多的人喜欢同样的东西。
And it's a pretty good bet that an awful lot of people are going to like the same thing.
而且你知道,当我把喝 Coca-Cola 跟别人想在 Whole Foods 卖给我的那些东西相比的时候,
And when I compare drinking Coca-Cola, you know, to something that somebody would sell me at Whole Foods.
我也说不好。
I don't know.
我反正在 Whole Foods 顾客的脸上看不到笑容。
I don't see smiles on the faces of people at Whole Foods.
所以 Andrew,我喜欢我们正在买入的这些品牌。
So I like the brands we're buying, Andrew.
好。
Okay.