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1996年股东大会 · 巴菲特给普通投资者的建议:不要做空

29 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 2:08
M1
M10:00

谢谢。

Thank you.

我是来自 Ohio 州 Cincinnati 的 Howard Winston。

Howard Winston from Cincinnati, Ohio.

一个问题。

One question.

你担不担心 NASDAQ 市场上不断升高的估值?那里的公司交易看的不是盈利倍数,而是营收倍数。

Are you concerned about the rising valuations on the NASDAQ market where companies trade at multiples of revenues instead of multiples of earnings?
M2
M20:13

你刚才说的什么价值在上升?

The rising value of what did you say?
M1
M10:15

NASDAQ 市场。

The NASDAQ market.

哦。

Oh.

那里的股票按营收的十倍、甚至更高,三十倍营收在交易,而不是十倍市盈率。

Where they trade at 10 times revenues or more, 30 times revenues instead of 10 times earnings.
M2
M20:23

对。

Yeah.

这个嘛,我们不太关注那个,因为在 Charlie 和我整个投资生涯里,一直都有几百个、甚至几千个例子,东西被定得荒唐地高,假的股票炒作,还有轻信的人被带着去相信一些根本不可能成真的事。

Well, we don't pay much attention to that because there are— throughout the careers Charlie and I have had in investing, there have always been hundreds of cases or thousands of cases of things that are ridiculously priced and phony stock promotions and the gullible being led into— to believe in things that just can't come true.

所以,这种事一直都在发生。

So, that's always gone on.

以后也一直会发生。

It always will go on.

而且这对我们没什么影响。

And it doesn't make any difference to us.

我的意思是,我们不是在试图预测市场。

I mean, we are not trying to predict markets.

我们以后也永远不会去预测市场。

We never will try and predict markets.

对。

Right.

我们是在努力找出色的企业,而市场里有一部分有点离谱、你知道,这个——这对我们不重要。

We're trying to find wonderful businesses and the fact that a part of the market is kind of screwy, you know, that is— that's unimportant to us.

我们年轻无知的时候,也试过几次去做空那类东西,但就算是做空那些一眼就看得出来的骗局,也很难赚到钱,而这种明显的骗局确实是有一些。

We tried a few times shorting some of those things in our innocence of youth and it's very tough to make money shorting even the obvious frauds and there are some obvious frauds.

真的很难。

It really is.

倒不是说——倒不是那么难找出明显的骗局。

It's not tough to— it's not so tough to find the obvious frauds.

而且从十年的时间来看,判断对了也不难,但要靠做空它们赚到钱就非常难,虽然我们很多年前确实试过几次。

And it's not tough to be right over 10 years, but it's very tough to make money being short them, although we tried a few times way back.

这个——我们不会去看整体股票市场发出的各种信号,也不会看市盈率、市销率,或者别的东西在干什么。

It's— we don't look at indicia from stocks in general or from P/Es or price-sales ratios or what other things are doing.

我们真的就只专注于企业本身。

We really just focus on businesses.

我们不在乎有没有股票市场。

We don't care if there's a stock market.

我的意思是,如果 Coca-Cola 和 Gillette 说,你知道,我们持有 Coca-Cola 的百分之八、Gillette 的百分之十一,如果他们说我们要把股票摘牌,而且以后都不——你知道,二十年后再重新开放交易,你说我们还想不想持有?

I mean, would we want to own Coca-Cola, the 8% we own of Coca-Cola, the 11% of Gillette, if they said, you know, we're just going to delist the stock and we're never going to— you know, we'll open it again in 20 years?

对我们来说完全没问题。

It's fine with us, you know.

而且如果它因为消息下跌了,我们还会继续买更多。

And if it goes down on the news, we'll buy more of it.

所以我们关心的是企业本身做得怎么样。

So we care about what the business does.

对。

Yes.