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1996年股东大会 · 巴菲特:我是如何阅读公司年报的

43 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:47
M1
M10:00

Buffett 先生,我叫 Hutch Vernon。

Mr. Buffett, my name is Hutch Vernon.

我来自 Maryland 的 Baltimore。

I'm from Baltimore, Maryland.

我知道您会读非常非常多的年报,我很好奇,您读这些年报到底是在找什么,如果您愿意跟我们分享的话。

I know that you read lots and lots of annual reports, and I'm curious what you are reading for, if you would share that with us.

不过我更好奇的是,因为我觉得我大概知道您是在读什么:您是否希望公司在财务报告里披露更多内容,或者希望 SEC 在财务报告、委托投票书,或者其他和股东沟通的材料里,要求更多披露?

But I'm more curious, because I think I know what you're reading for, if there are any disclosures, any further disclosures that you would like to see companies make in their financial reporting, or that the SEC require in financial reporting or proxies or other communications with their shareholders.

这个问题是问你们两位的,对吗?

And that would be for both of you?
M2
M20:33

对,他们在年报里没法强制要求的一点,主要就是——我真的很希望知道,越多越好,关于经营这家公司的人,他是怎么思考这门生意的,以及这门生意里到底真实发生了什么。

Yeah, the main thing that they can't mandate in annual reports is, I really like to have—I like to know as much as I can about the person that's running it and how they think about the business and what's really going on in the business.

换句话说,我理想中的报告应该是这样:假如我拥有一家公司一半的股权,但我离开了一年,另一半由我的合伙人持有,那我回来以后,我希望看到的报告,就应该把这一年里发生了什么、接下来要发生什么,诸如此类的事情,都原原本本告诉我。

In other words, I would like to have a report that would be identical to what—if I were to have a report that would be identical to what if I owned half of a company but was away for a year and I had a partner who owned the other half, when I came back, what was all coming up and all of that.
M1
M11:09

我——

I—.
M2
M21:09

这才是我想要的那种报告。现在 SEC 确实要求披露很多信息,而且——

Of the report is, now the SEC mandates a lot of information and—.
M1
M11:13

洞见,是吧?

Insight, huh?
M2
M21:16

其中有些是有帮助的,但报告背后其实是有意图的。

Some of that is helpful, but there's an intent behind the report.

我的意思是,如果它本质上是一份销售宣传材料,那我,你知道,我就没那么感兴趣了。

I mean, if it's a sales document, I'm, you know, I'm less interested.

我也看不出有什么办法能把我说的这种东西强制规定下来,但这就是我在寻找的那种报告。

And I don't see any way to mandate what I'm talking about, but that's the kind of report I'm looking for.

我在读报告的时候,想做的第一件事,就是大体上弄明白各种各样的生意到底在发生什么。

What I'm trying to do as I read reports, A, I like to understand just generally what's going on in all kinds of businesses.

如果我们持有某个行业里一家公司 的股票,而这个行业里还有另外 8 家公司,那我也想持有、或者至少进入另外那 8 家公司的年报邮寄名单,因为如果我不了解另外那 8 家在做什么,我就没法理解我们这家公司到底做得怎么样。

If we own stock in a company in an industry and there are 8 other companies that are in the same industry, I want to own or be on the mailing list for the reports for the other 8 because I can't understand how my company is doing unless I understand what the other 8 are doing.

我需要有一个整体视角,比如市场份额怎么样,生意里发生了什么,它们的利润率如何,利润率的趋势如何,还有很多很多事情;如果我不了解这些,我就得不到这种视角。

I want to have the perspective of, in terms of market share or what's going on in the business or their margins or the trend of margins or all kinds of things that I can't get unless I know.

如果我不知道发生了什么,我就不可能成为一个聪明的企业所有者。

I can't be an intelligent owner of a business unless I know what's going on.

也就是这个行业里其他所有企业都在做什么。

What all the other businesses in that industry are doing.

所以,我会努力从报告里把这些信息挖出来。

And so, I try to get that information out of a report.

如果我在考虑投资某一家具体的公司,我就会尽量评估它的业务,以及经营这家公司的人。

If I'm thinking about investing in a specific company, I try to size up their business and the people that are running it.

这些年来,我发现大量阅读报告,对 Berkshire 做商业决策非常有用。

And over the years, I found reading a lot of reports to be quite useful in terms of making business decisions at Berkshire.

如果我们全资拥有一家企业,我也希望持有它所有竞争对手的股份,这样就能持续跟踪到底发生了什么。

If we own all of a business, I want to own shares in all of the competitors just to keep track of what's going on.

而且我希望能够有判断力地评估我们的经理人做得怎么样;如果我不了解他们所处的行业背景,我就做不到这一点。

And I want to be able to intelligently evaluate how our managers are doing, and I can't do that unless I know the industry backdrop against which they're working.

你知道,在投资这件事上,靠我所谓的外部信息,其实往往都能做得相当好,这真是很令人惊讶。

It's amazing, you know, how well you can do in investing really with what I would call outside information.

至于内幕信息,我都不太确定那到底有多大用处;但外部信息——关于企业的各种信息,到处都是。

I find inside information, I'm not sure how useful that is, but outside information, there's all kinds of information around as to businesses.

而且你不需要把它们全都弄懂。

And you don't have to understand all of them.

你只需要弄懂那些你正在考虑进入的。

You just have to understand the ones that you're thinking about getting in.

只要你真去做,你是能做到的——只是不会有人替你做。

And you can do it if you just—but nobody will do it for you.

你没法——至少在我看来——靠读 Wall Street 的报告读出什么真正有价值的东西。

You can't read—in my view, you can't read Wall Street reports and get anything out of them.

你得自己动手,自己把它彻底搞明白。

You have to do it yourself and get your arms around it.

我觉得啊,四十年来,我们大概从来没有因为 Wall Street 的报告得到过什么点子。

I don't think we've ever gotten an idea, you know, in 40 years from a Wall Street report.

但我们确实从 annual report 里得到过很多想法。

But we've gotten a lot of ideas from annual reports.
M1
M13:43

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M23:43

我的感觉是,就算是一家相对简单的企业,读 annual report 也得花很长时间。

What I find is that it takes a long time to read the annual report, even if it's a comparatively simple business.

换句话说,如果你真的是想把它搞明白,这一点都不容易。

In other words, if you really are trying to understand it, it's not a bit easy.

对,我会说,平均下来,对一家我们真的感兴趣的企业,就算我们某种程度上已经知道哪些可以跳过、哪些该重点看,一份报告也还是要花四十五分钟到一个小时;如果这个行业里有六家到八家公司,那可能就得花六到八个小时。

Yeah, I would say that on average, in a business we're really interested in, even though we know what to skip to some extent, what to read, I mean, it's going to be 45 minutes or an hour on a report, and if there are 6 or 8 companies in the industry, that's going to be 6 or 8 hours perhaps.

然后还有 quarterly reports,还有很多别的——我的意思是,你了解一家企业的方式,就是不断吸收关于它的信息,去思考,判断什么重要、什么不重要,再把一件事和另一件事联系起来。

And then there are quarterlies and a lot of other— I mean, the way you learn about businesses is by absorbing information about them, thinking it, deciding what counts and what doesn't count, relating one thing to another.

而且,你知道,这就是这份工作。

And, you know, that's the job.

你不可能靠看图表上一堆小数字上上下下地跳动——你懂的——或者靠读期刊里的市场评论之类的东西,就获得这些。

And you can't get that by looking at a bunch of little numbers on a chart bobbing up and down about a— you know, or— or reading, you know, market commentary in periodicals or anything of the sort.

那样就是不行。

That just won't do it.

你必须得真正理解这些企业。

You've got to understand the businesses.

所有事情的起点和终点都在这儿。

That's where it all begins and ends.

Zone 5?

Zone 5?