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1999年股东大会 · 芒格坦承,伯克希尔的接班人很难比巴菲特做的更好

37 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:16
M1
M10:00

大家好,我叫 Elias Canter,来自 New York City。

Hello, my name is Elias Canter and I am from New York City.

Buffett 先生,感谢您整个周末的安排。

Mr. Buffett, thank you for this entire weekend.

我周六在球赛上见过您,昨天又在 Gorat's 见到了您。

I met you at the ballgame on Saturday and at Gorat's yesterday.

每一次对我来说,都是非常大的荣幸。

It was a great honor for me each time.
M2
M20:16

谢谢。

Thank you.
M1
M10:17

我的问题是这样:Buffett 先生,您会不会培养一位更年轻的男性或女性,作为您明确的接班人?如果会的话,您大概会在什么时候这样做?

My question is this: Mr. Buffett, will you groom a younger man or woman as your heir apparent? If so, when might you do this?

我说的更年轻,是指比您年轻十五到二十岁的人。

When I say younger, I mean a person 15 to 20 years younger than yourself.

当然,我不是在抱怨。

Of course, I'm not complaining.

您是全世界最厉害的。

You're the best in the world.
M2
M20:39

嗯,比我年轻十五到二十岁这件事,现在可比以前容易多了。

Well, 15 or 20 years younger is a lot easier to do than it used to be.

现在全世界有很大一部分人口都符合这个条件了。

A large percentage of the world's population is now eligible.

这个,呃,我们今天已经有可以接管 Berkshire 的人了,这方面完全没有问题。

The, uh, we have today the people to take over Berkshire, there's no problem about that at all.

他们的名字已经写在董事们持有的信里,而且这些人都已经到位了。

They have been named in letters that the directors have, and they are in place.

当然,最后具体是哪两个人——或者也可能是一个人。

Exactly who the two people will be, of course— or it could be one person.

对。

Yeah.

这要看 Charlie 和我是在什么时候退出舞台。

Will depend on when Charlie and I are out of the picture.

我的意思是,呃,如果我们十年前写那封信,里面的人选可能会和今天不一样。

I mean, it, uh, if we'd written the letter 10 years ago, it might have been different than today.

再过十五年,也可能又不一样。

It might be different 15 years from now.

所以,呃,我们去世或者失去工作能力的时间点,会决定那封信里当时写着的,具体会是哪一个人。

So, uh, our death or incapacity, the timing of it, will determine exactly who, who will be the current person in that letter.

但我们已经把这些人安排好了。

But we have those people in place.

从现在开始,他们不需要再专门培养了。

They're— they don't need to be groomed from this point forward.

他们已经在那里了。

They exist.

他们已经准备好了。

They're ready.

他们明天一早就可以接手管理 Berkshire,而且我觉得,你们会对他们做出来的成绩相当满意。

They'd be ready to run Berkshire tomorrow morning, and I think you'd be quite pleased with the, the job they did.

这也是为什么我并不担心——我有百分之九十九又四分之三的净资产都放在 Berkshire 里,而且,呃,你知道,我不希望卖掉任何一部分。

And that's why I don't worry about having— I've got 99¾% of my net worth in Berkshire, and, uh, you know, I don't want any of it sold.

如果我知道自己下周会去世,我也不希望在这——在接下来这一周里把它卖掉;我死了以后,我也不希望它被卖掉。

If I knew I was going to die next week, I would not want it sold in this— in the coming week, and I don't want it sold after I die.

对于我们现在拥有的这些业务、这些经理人,以及未来接班的最高管理层,我心里非常踏实。

I feel very comfortable with the businesses and the managers and the successor top management that we have.

在 Berkshire 是这样,不过我只是不希望他接手得太早。

At Berkshire, but I just don't want him to take over too early.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M32:16

对,我其实认为,Berkshire 的公司文化——如果我们确实有一种公司文化的话——它延续下去的可能性,比大多数其他大型上市公司的公司文化延续下去的可能性都更高。

Yeah, I actually think that the prospects for continuity of corporate culture, to the extent we have one at Berkshire, is higher than prospects for continuity of corporate culture at most other large public companies.

我,我觉得就算 Warren 今晚突然去世,Berkshire 的经营方式也不会改变。

I, I don't see Berkshire changing its way of operating even if Warren were to expire tonight.

不过我觉得,在资本配置上,那些新进来的现金,分配得可能就没那么好了。

And I think that the capital, the fresh cash, would be allocated less well.

但我以前在股东大会上也说过,嗯,那也真是没办法。

But as I've said at past shareholder meetings, well, that's too damn bad.
M2
M23:02

所以我们才没有公共关系部门。

That's why we don't have a public relations department.
M3
M33:07

顺便说一句,我不觉得这份工作会被做砸。

By the way, I don't think the job would be ill done.

我只是觉得,做得不会像 Warren 做得那么好。

I just don't think it would be done quite as well as Warren does it.
M2
M23:15

好,Zone 13。

Okay, Zone 13.