1999年股东大会 · 巴菲特：互联网对零售业有怎样的影响？ — 文稿

M10:00

大家早上好。

Good morning.

我叫 Ronald Towell。

My name is Ronald Towell.

我来自纽约 Brooklyn，也非常感谢你们作为东道主，为我们安排了这个美好的周末。

I'm from Brooklyn, New York, and very appreciative of your graciousness as a host for this wonderful weekend.

我的问题和——我的问题和零售行业有关，特别是百货公司和大型综合零售商。

My question has to do with the— My question has to do with the retailing industry, particularly the department stores and mass merchants.

我的问题分两部分。

My question has 2 parts.

不针对具体公司发表评论的前提下，我想请教一下，您怎么看这个行业群体长期的增长和盈利前景？

Without resorting to comments about specific companies, may I ask your opinion as to the long-term prospects for growth and profitability of this industry group.

我问题的第二部分是，考虑到现在无论是看报纸，还是作为投资者，都会不断被各种说法轰炸，说 internet 电子商务，尤其是直接面向消费者的模式，可能会带来指数级增长，而且还可能侵蚀这些零售商的收入；并且即便我们假设它的影响相对较小，比如说只造成百分之五到百分之十的营收下滑，再考虑到收入增长对任何企业都至关重要，尤其是那些固定成本占比很高的线下实体零售商，那么您会给这类公司的 CEO 什么建议？

The second part of my question is, given the fact that it is difficult to pick up a newspaper or to be an investor without being bombarded by what is purported to be the potential for exponential growth in the internet e-business, particularly directly to consumers, which could possibly eat into the revenues of these retailers, and if— even if we assume a relatively low impact of, say, 5% to 10% revenue reductions, and given the fact that top-line growth is critical to any business, especially the bricks-and-mortar retailers with their high proportions of fixed overhead, what advice could you give to a CEO of such a company?

另外，基于刚才这个情景，您对这个行业中期和长期的前景又会怎么看？

And in turn, based on the preceding scenario, what would be your opinion of the medium- and long-term prospects for this industry?

M21:19

嗯，这也是个好问题。很显然，internet 会对零售业产生重要影响。

Well, that's a good question too, and obviously the internet is going to have an important impact on retailing.

它会对某些零售业态产生巨大影响，改变它们，甚至可能彻底颠覆它们。

It will have a huge impact on some forms of retailing, change them and maybe revolutionize them.

我认为还有一些领域受到的影响会小一些。不过，我们每次投资一家企业，或者说这些年来每次投资时，都会试着去想，五年、十年、十五年之后，这门生意会是什么样子。

I think there are some other areas where the impact will be less, but anytime we buy into a business, and anytime we've bought in for some time, we have tried to think of what that business is going to look like in 5 or 10 or 15 years.

我们也意识到，在很多零售领域里，internet 很可能会构成一种威胁，威胁大到让我们根本不想进入这个行业。

And we recognize that the internet, in many forms of retailing, is likely to pose such a threat that we simply wouldn't want to get into the business.

我的意思是——并不是说我们能把它精确衡量出来，但我们认为有不少零售业务正面临威胁；不过我们不认为家具零售是这种情况，而我们在这方面有三项非常重要的业务。

I mean, it— not that we can measure it perfectly, but there are a number of retailing operations that we think are threatened, and we do not think that's the case in furniture retailing, and we have 3 very important operations there.

当然我们也可能错了，但到目前为止，嗯，这就是我的判断：家具零售不会因此受到伤害。

We could be wrong, but so far, that, you know, that would be my judgment, that furniture retailing will not be hurt.

你已经能在其他一些零售形式里看到，internet 开始产生一些渗透了，不过这才刚刚开始。

You've seen other forms of retailing where you're already starting to see some inroads being made, but it's just started.

internet 会在很多领域成为一股巨大的力量，但它在零售业里肯定也会是一股巨大的力量。

The internet is going to be a huge force in many arenas, but it'll certainly be a huge force in retailing.

当然，在某些领域，它也可能会让我们受益。

Now, it may benefit us in certain areas.

我预计 internet 会在很大程度上让 Borsheims 受益。

I would expect the internet to benefit Borsheims in a very big way.

你们在那段影片里也注意到了，我们提到 Borsheims.com 会在五月上线。

And you noticed in the, in the movie that we talked about Borsheims.com coming online in May.

现在网站上已经有一些内容了，不过大概一个月左右，你们会看到一个全新的版本。

There's something up there now, but you'll see a new format within a month or so.

现在你可能会说，在珠宝零售这个领域，未来十年里，面对几百万种可以点开的商品，到底谁会变得重要呢？

Now you might say, in jewelry retailing, you know, with millions of things that you can click onto, 10 years from now, you know, who is going to be important?

我是说，在珠宝的线上零售方面。

In terms of online retailing of jewelry.

我会说，有两家公司一开始就拥有巨大的优势。

I would argue that 2 firms have an enormous advantage going in.

我会说，Tiffany 就有这样的优势。

I would argue that Tiffany has such an advantage.

我们没有持有任何 Tiffany 的股份，但我之所以这么说，是因为它的名字；当你面前真的有成千上万种选择时，品牌会变得非常非常重要。

We don't own any Tiffany, but I would say that because of their name, brand names are going to mean very, very much when you have literally, you know, thousands and thousands of choices.

人们不可能——他们必须信任某个人。

People can't— they have to trust somebody.

我认为，Tiffany 这个名字是人们会信任的，我也认为 Borsheim's 这个名字是人们会信任的，而且 Borsheim's 卖的珠宝要比 Tiffany 便宜得多。

And I think that Tiffany has a name that people would trust, and I think Borsheim's has a name that people would trust, and Borsheim's sells jewelry a whole lot cheaper than Tiffany's.

所以我会说，那些对价格敏感、同时又希望和自己完全信任的珠宝商打交道的人，会越来越多地找到 Borsheim's。

So I would say that people who are price-conscious, but also want to deal with a jeweler that they trust implicitly, will find their way to Borsheim's in increasing numbers.

通过 internet，我还会说，那些喜欢那个蓝盒子的人，嗯，随着时间推移，也会去找 Tiffany's，当然他们也会花更多的钱。

Over the internet, and I would say that people that like the blue box, you know, are going to find their way to Tiffany's over time, and they'll pay more money.

但我不认为他们会在 internet 上买高端珠宝时，去选择什么 Brand X。

But I don't see them going for Brand X in buying fine jewelry over the internet.

所以我觉得，凭 Borsheims 这个品牌，再加上对这个品牌的精心培育—— 我们旗下还有别的一些公司，说实话我会担心，我会担心它们会以各种方式受到伤害。

So I think that with the brand that Borsheims has, and with careful nurturing of that brand— There are other of our companies I worry about, you know, I can worry about them being hurt in various ways.

GEICO 会是互联网的一个大受益者。

GEICO is going to be a big beneficiary of the internet.

我们已经通过它发展出了相当可观的业务。

We already are developing substantial business through it.

但是—— 如果让我去买任何零售业务，不管是买它的股票，还是把整个企业买下来，我都会非常认真地去想，人们会通过互联网对这门生意做些什么。

But I— if I were to buy into any retailing business, whether I was buying the stock of it or buying the whole business, I would think very hard about what people are going to be trying to do to that business through the internet.

而且，你知道，这也会影响到那些专门用于零售的房地产。

And, you know, it affects— it affects real estate that is dedicated to retailing.

如果有百分之五的零售销售额转到互联网上，而在那里，房地产基本上等于是免费的。

If you substitute 5% of the retail volume via the internet where real estate is essentially free.

他们—— 你知道，他们—— 通过互联网，你可以在世界上每一个城镇都开一家店，而且完全不用付租金。

They're, you know, they're— you can have a store in every town in the world through the internet without having any rental expense.

所以如果我持有很多零售出租物业的话，我会非常认真地考虑这个问题。

So I would be think— I would give a lot of thought to that if I were owning a lot of retail rental space.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M35:26

嗯，我觉得，要预测技术变化到底会不会摧毁某些生意，这件事很棘手。

Well, I think it is, it's tricky predicting that technological change either will or won't destroy some business.

我年轻的时候，百货商店有一大堆某种近似垄断的优势。

When I was young, the department stores had a bunch of sort of monopolistic advantages.

第一，它们都在市中心，正好是有轨电车线路交汇的地方。

A, they were downtown where the streetcar lines met.

第二，它们在提供循环信贷这件事上，某种程度上有垄断地位。

B, they had sort of a monopoly on extending revolving credit.

第三，不管什么天气，你都可以在那里一站式买到各种东西。

And C, they had one-stop shopping in all kinds of weather.

别人都做不到这一点。后来它们这三项优势全都失去了，但从那以后，很多百货商店还是很多年都经营得不错。

And nobody else did, and they lost all 3 of those advantages, and yet they've done well, a lot of them, for many decades since.

但也有别的时候，变化一来，你就直接被摧毁了。

At other times you get a change and you just get destroyed.

我们的 trading stamp 业务，就是被经济环境的变化摧毁的；而我们的 World Book 业务，也被 personal computer、CD-ROM 之类的东西严重冲击了。

Our trading stamp business was destroyed by changes in the economic world, and our World Book business has been seriously hurt by the personal computer and the CD-ROM and so forth.

我同意这是个很大的风险，但要做出那种让你非常有把握的预测，并不容易。

I agree it's a big risk, but it's not easy to make predictions in which you have great confidence.

M26:37

对，如果你到这里的 16th and Farnam 去看看，当年有轨电车轨道交叉的地方，那曾经是城里最好的地段。人们在那里一签就是一百年、五十年的租约，看起来没有什么比那更安全了，因为他们不可能把有轨电车线路搬走。

Yeah, if you go down to 16th and Farnam here where the streetcar tracks used to cross, that was the best real estate in town, and people signed 100-year, 50-year leases on it, and it looked like there was nothing more safe because they weren't going to move the streetcar lines.

唯一的问题是，他们后来真的把有轨电车搬走了。

The only thing was that they moved the streetcars.

他们干脆把那些车拆了，变成废铁。

They just took them, converted them into junk.

而这一切原本看上去都像是会永久存在的。

And it seemed very permanent.

但是，大型百货商店的优势，像 Chicago 的 Marshall Field's，或者 New York 的 Macy's，就在于它们商品品类宽得惊人。

But the advantage of the big department store, the Marshall Field's in Chicago or the Macy's in New York, was this incredible breadth of merchandise.

你走进去，能找到三百种不同的线轴，或者五百种不同的—— 你能看到五百件不同的婚纱，或者别的什么东西。

You could go and you could find 300 different types of spools of thread, or 500 different— you could see 500 different wedding dresses, or whatever.

你有这种一百万平方英尺、甚至两百万平方英尺的市中心大店，它们就像巨大的购物殿堂。

And you had these million-square-foot and even 2-million-square-foot downtown stores, and they were these huge emporiums.

后来购物中心出现了，当然，购物中心实际上等于创造了一家由很多家店组成的大店。

And then the shopping center came along, and of course the shopping center created, in effect, a store of many stores.

所以现在你又有了几百万平方英尺的空间，而且—— 而且你仍然能提供这种惊人的商品多样性。

And so you had millions of square feet now, and, and, but you still had this incredible variety being offered.

互联网则变成了你—— 你电脑里的一家商店，而且它提供的商品种类同样多得惊人。

The internet becomes a store in your, you know, in your computer, and it has an incredible variety of, of offerings too.

在我看来，有些东西似乎并不太适合通过这种方式来零售，而另外一些则很适合。

Some of them don't lend themselves very well, it seems to me, to retailing, and, you know, and others do.

不过 Charlie 说得对，很难准确预测最后到底会怎么发展。

But Charlie's right, it's hard to predict exactly how it will turn out.

我觉得，我觉得，你知道，汽车零售会在一些重要的方面发生变化，而且其中有相当大、非常大的一部分，会受到 Internet 的影响。

I would expect, I would expect, you know, automobile retailing to change in some important ways, and in part, in very significant part, influenced by the Internet.

但我不会，你知道，我没法准确预测这到底会怎么发生，不过我觉得，再过十年或者十五年，它看起来不会还是现在这个样子。

But I wouldn't, you know, I can't predict exactly how that'll happen, but I don't think it'll look the same 10 or 15 years from now.

六区？

Zone six?