1998年股东大会 · 巴菲特：为了好的投资机会，我可以无限期等待 — 文稿

M10:00

我叫 Hubert Vos。

My name is Hubert Vos.

我来自 California 的 Santa Barbara。

I'm from Santa Barbara, California.

今天早些时候，你提到过一句，说如果市场下跌，你花在互联网上的时间就会更少，因为你会非常忙。

Earlier this morning, you made a comment that if the market fell, you would be spending less time on the internet because you'd be very busy.

这也让我更加强化了一个印象，就是 Berkshire Hathaway 的现金流非常庞大，不过可能在过去十二个月里，你们的投资比起之前要少了。

And this has reinforced an impression I have had that the cash flows of Berkshire Hathaway are enormous, but that possibly in the last 12 months you've been investing less than you had previously.

如果真是这样，如果这个判断没错，那这对于等待有吸引力的估值意味着什么呢？

And if so, if this is correct, what does that say about waiting for attractive values?

你愿意等多久？

How long are you willing to wait?

这对普通投资者自己的投资习惯，又说明了什么？

And what does that say to the investment public in their own habits?

M20:46

嗯，你说得对，我们已经有好几个月没有在股票这边找到什么值得一提的机会了。

Well, you're correct that we have not found anything to speak of in equities in a good many months.

至于我们会等多久——我们会无限期地等下去。

And the question of how long we wait— we wait indefinitely.

我们不会为了买点什么而去买。

We are not going to buy anything just to buy something.

只有当我们觉得买到的东西确实有吸引力时，我们才会出手。

We will only buy something if we think we're getting something attractive.

还有，顺便说一句，就算价格便宜百分之五——或者百分之十——也不会从根本上改变什么。

And that— and incidentally, if things were 5% cheaper, that would— or 10% cheaper, that wouldn't change anything materially.

所以，如果回报率继续维持在现在这个水平，我们也不会觉得自己特别错过了什么，因为就算事实证明现在这个水平没问题，在我们看来，从这里往后也还是不可能带来很出色的回报。

So— we won't feel we've missed anything particularly if returns stay where they are, because if it turns out that these levels are okay, they still will not produce great returns from here in our view.

这并不是说短期内市场不可能出现非常火热的行情，或者类似的情况。

That doesn't mean you couldn't have a tremendous market in the short term or something of the sort.

市场什么都可能发生。

Markets can do anything.

我是说，你去看看市场的历史，就会发现什么样的情况都出现过。

I mean, you look at the history of markets and you just see everything under the sun.

但我们不会——你知道——我们没有什么时间表。

But we will not, you know, we have no— we have no time frame.

如果钱不断堆积起来，那就让它继续堆积。

If the money piles up, the money piles up.

一旦我们看到有道理、讲得通的机会，我们愿意动作非常快，而且下手非常大。

And when we see something that makes sense, we're willing to act very fast, very big.

但对那些在我们看来站不住脚的东西，我们是不愿意行动的。

But we're not willing to act on anything that doesn't check out in our view.

这里没有——频繁行动本身是赚不到钱的。

There's no— you don't get paid for activity.

你只有在判断正确的时候，才会赚到钱。

You only get paid for being right.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M32:06

对。

Yeah.

在寻找新的买入机会时，偶尔会有一段沉闷期。

An occasional dull stretch for new buying.

在一个人的投资生涯里，这并不是什么大悲剧，而且在这样的时期，也可能还有别的事情可以做。

This is no great tragedy in an investment lifetime, and other things may be possible in such an era too.

我的意思是，我们手里的箭袋又不是只有一支箭。

I mean, it isn't like we have a quiver with only one arrow.

M22:24

我们以前也经历过这样的阶段。

We sat through periods before.

我是说，最典型的一次，就是六十年代末到七十年代初那段时间。

I mean, the most dramatic one being the early '70s, late '60s and early '70s.

有很长一段时间，看起来——现在回头看，好像也没那么久。

For a long time, it seemed— doesn't seem so long when you look back on it.

经历的时候会觉得很漫长，不过这就像拔牙之类的事。

Seems long when you're going through it, but it's like having a tooth pulled or something.

但是，你知道，这种事你又能怎么办呢？

But it's, you know, what can you do about it?

你光是因为自己心里发慌，觉得非得买点什么，这些企业将来也不会就因此表现得更好。

The businesses aren't going to perform better in the future just because you got antsy and decided you had to buy something.

嗯，我们会一直等，等到找到我们喜欢的东西。

Well, we will wait till we find something we like.

不过，等到我们能大手笔出手的时候，我们会很开心。

We'll love it when we can swing in a big way, though.

这就是我们的风格。

That's our style.

Area 1？

Area 1?