2008年股东大会 · 巴菲特：为什么我不用股票期权策略 — 文稿

M10:00

早上好。

Good morning.

我是 Joe Hudson，来自 Indiana 州 Culver 的一名股东。

I'm Joe Hudson, a shareholder from Culver, Indiana.

你能不能讲讲，当你们想进入或者退出一家上市公司的持仓时，会怎么使用股票期权？

Could you please comment on how you use stock options when trying to enter or exit a position in a public company?

M20:11

对，我们之前好像有过一次，卖出了 Coca-Cola 的 put，想法是如果它被行权了，那我们会非常乐意持有更多 Coca-Cola。

Yeah, we've—I think there was one time we sold a put on Coca-Cola with the idea that if it got exercised, we were very happy to own more Coca-Cola.

结果它没有被行权。

It didn't get exercised.

如果当时我们直接买股票，其实会更划算。

We would have been better off if we just bought the stock.

通常来说，如果你想买进或卖出一只股票，你就应该直接买进或卖出那只股票。

Usually, if you want to buy or sell a stock, you should buy or sell the stock.

如果你用期权技巧，呃，比如买一只股票的 call，而不是直接把股票买下来，想着这样能稍微便宜一点，那大概五次里有四次你会是对的，但到第五次，股票可能更早就已经涨上去了，然后，然后，然后，你就会，呃，错过你本来想完成的那笔交易。

And using an option technique, uh, to buy a call on a stock, uh, instead of buying the stock outright, with the idea that you get it a little cheaper that way, means that about 4 times out of 5 you'll be right, and the 5th time the stock will have moved earlier, and, and, and, and you'll have, uh, you'll have missed, you know, the transaction you wanted to have.

所以我们几乎从来没有，呃，把期权当成建立仓位或者退出仓位的方式，我也非常怀疑，呃，我们以后会不会这么做。

And so we, we virtually have never, uh, used options as a way to enter a position or exit a position, and I would doubt, uh, very much if, if, if we do.

我们也用过——我们卖出过那些 equity long-term equity put options，昨天的新闻稿里提到了，年报里也写了，不过那是另外一回事。

We've used—we've sold these equity long-term equity put options that are described in the press release yesterday and were described in the annual report, but that's a different sort of thing.

如果我们想买什么，我们就会直接开始买；如果我们想退出，呃，我们就会开始卖。

If we want to buy something, we'll just start buying it, and if we want to get out of it, uh, we'll start selling it.

我们不会去搞什么花哨的技巧。

Then we won't get involved in any fancy techniques.

M31:36

嗯，如果我没记错的话，当时监管部门在决定我们是不是该设立 option exchanges 的时候，

Well, if I remember right, you wrote a letter when the public authorities were deciding whether we should have option exchanges.

是针对股票的。

For stocks.

那时候 Warren 几乎是唯一一个公开反对的人，他写了一封信，说他认为国家用这种方式把 margin rules 给扔掉，不会带来任何好处。

And Warren was all alone at that time, and he wrote a letter saying that he didn't think it would do any good at all for the country to throw out the margin rules in, in this fashion.

我一直都觉得 Warren 说得完全对。

I've always thought that Warren was totally right.

我们——本质上就是把金融市场变成赌场，好让荷官赚更多的钱，

We—it's the idea of turning financial markets into gambling parlors so the croupiers can make more money.

这种事对我们来说从来都没什么吸引力。

Has never been very attractive to us.

M22:20

对我来说很有意思的是，我跟这些 MBA 学生聊天的时候，

Yeah, it's very interesting to me when I talk to these MBA students.

其中有一个是 University of Chicago 的，几年前他问我的第一个问题就是：我们现在学的东西里，什么是错的？

One of them from the University of Chicago, the very first question I got a few years ago, he says, what are we being taught that's wrong?

我特别喜欢这种问题。

I love questions like that.

以后我得提前安排几个这样的问题。

I have to plant them in the future.

商学院里花了那么多时间——现在也许少一点了——去教什么 option pricing 之类的东西。

The amount of time spent at business schools—maybe it's a little less now—but teaching things like option pricing and that sort of thing.

这完全是胡扯。

It's totally nonsense.

我的意思是，商学院里你其实只需要两门课。

I mean, you need 2 courses in a business school.

一门是怎么给企业估值，另一门是怎么理解股市波动。

One is how to value a business, and how to think about stock market fluctuations.

但你要把这么多时间都花在各种公式上——当然，问题在于老师懂这些公式，而你在他们来上课之前并不懂，所以他们总得找点内容来把时间填满。

But the idea that you would spend all of this time with formulas—but the problem, of course, is that the instructors know the formulas and you don't when they come, and so they've got something to fill the time.

好讲给你听。

Explaining to you.

你知道，这事一点都不好玩。我的意思是，如果你教的是 biblical studies，而你又能用五种不同的语言，把三四本最重要的宗教经典从头到尾、倒背如流地读下来，你肯定不愿意告诉别人，其实归根结底就是 Ten Commandments。

And, you know, it is no fun if you—I mean, if you were teaching biblical studies, you know, and you could read 3 or 4 of the most important religious tomes forward and backward in 5 different languages, you would hate to tell somebody that it all comes down to the 10 Commandments.

我的意思是，这种事随便哪个笨蛋都能做到。

I mean, any damn fool can do that.

所以，金融圈里那些权威人士特别想教你那些他们懂、你不懂的东西，那些是他们花了很长时间学来的，而且可能还需要不少数学。

So there's a great desire of the priesthood in finance to want to teach the things that they know and you don't know, and that they spent a long time learning, and that maybe require a fair amount of mathematics.

但这其实跟投资成功一点关系都没有。

And it really has nothing to do with investment success.

投资要成功，关键是用合适的价格买入对的企业。

Investment success depends on buying into the right businesses at the right price.

你得知道怎么给企业估值，而且你得有一种心态，让自己不被市场影响。

And you have to know how to value businesses, and you have to have an attitude that divorces you from being influenced by the market.

你希望市场在那里不是为了影响你，而是为了给你服务。

You want the market there not to influence you, you want it there to serve you.

这就需要一种心态，也呼应了前面一个问题，这种心态在《The Intelligent Investor》第八章里讲得非常好。

And that requires a mindset which goes back to an earlier question, and it's a mindset that's described quite well in Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor.

我们来看第六个问题。

Let's go to number 6.