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1996年股东大会 · 伯克希尔A股与B股,谁的流动性更好?

34 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:07
M1
M10:00

我是来自 Washington, D.C. 的 Robert Keely。

I'm Robert Keely from Washington, D.C.

我有一个简短的评论,还有一个简短的问题。

I have a brief comment and a brief question.

这个评论是,我觉得你们可能大大低估了本周晚些时候和下周市场对购买 Class B stock 的兴趣。

The comment is that I think you may be considerably underestimating the interest there will be in purchases of Class B stock later this week and next week.

在 Washington,我至少有十个朋友知道我是 Berkshire 的股东,也知道我要来参加这次会议,他们都坚持要我明天回去告诉他们,Class B stock 到底发生了什么,因为他们非常感兴趣。

I have at least 10 friends in Washington who are aware that I'm a Berkshire shareholder and that I was coming to this meeting, and they've insisted that I report back to them tomorrow on just what happened with the Class B stock because they're very interested.

就算跟今天在场的股东相比,你们谈到的也是一个会有成千上万人参与的市场。

Relative to even the shareholders who are present here today, you're talking about tens of thousands of people who are going to be in that market.

我的问题跟流动性有关。

And my question relates to liquidity.

在你们年报的第十八页,你们写道,我引用一下,“大多数股东会继续持有 A stock,这意味着它的市场流动性可能会比 B 稍微更好一些。”

On page 18 of your annual report, you say, and I quote, the prospect that most shareholders will stick to the A stock suggests that it will enjoy a somewhat more liquid market than the B.

你能解释一下吗?

Could you explain that?

在我看来,如果大多数股东都保留他们的 A stock,不转换,也不卖出,那 B stock 的流动性不是应该强得多吗?

It seems to me that if most shareholders keep their A stock, do not convert it or sell it, that the B stock will be much more liquid.

也许是我不太理解流动性。

Maybe I don't understand liquidity.
M2
M21:08

不,我觉得你理解了。

No, I think you do.

你是理解的,我再稍微展开说一点。

You understand it, and I'll elaborate just a bit.

当然,在第一周,我预计 B stock 的交易量会大得多,不过我希望它不要像大多数新发行证券那样,相对于发行规模来说交易得过于活跃。

Certainly in the first week, I would expect the B stock to trade far more, although I hope it doesn't trade like most new issues trade in relation to the amount sold.

这就是新发行的天然特点,通常都会这样——不过从更长远来看,我们先假设市场上会有价值四亿美元的 B stock。

It's just the nature of a new offering that there's usually— but longer range, let's just assume that there's $400 million worth of B stock out there.

而 A 会有四百亿美元。

There will be $40 billion of A.

当然了,你也知道,我不会对我的股票做什么,这个房间里很多人的持股税务成本也非常低,除非出现非常特殊的情况,否则他们也没打算对自己的股票做什么。

Now admittedly, you know, I'm not going to do anything with my stock, and many people in this room have a very low tax basis, and except under very unusual circumstances, have no intention of doing anything with their stock.

所以在那四百亿美元里,有相当高的一个比例,你甚至可以说,几乎对市场变化的反应是免疫的。

So if that $40 billion— there's a very significant percentage that you might say is almost inoculated against reaction to market changes.

但即便如此,剩下来的金额还是非常可观。

But there still is a very significant dollar value.

比如说,就有相当一部分是由 funds 持有的。

There's a fair amount held by funds, for example.

所以,我所说的那些“有可能进入交易”的 A,它的市值很可能会远远超过“有可能进入交易”的 B 的市值。

And so the market value of what I would call the potentially tradable A is likely to far exceed the market value of the potentially tradable B.

现在,也许 B 全部都是潜在可交易的,而 A 只有一小部分是,但四百亿美元对四亿美元这个比例,我觉得几乎可以保证,在最初那一阵热闹过去之后,交易条件更好的市场——我说“更好的市场”,指的是能在价格变动很小的情况下,双向处理大额资金买卖的能力——虽然不会好特别多,但更好的市场很可能还是在 A。

Now, it may be that all of the B is potentially tradable, whereas only a small portion of the A is, but that $40 billion to $400 million ratio, I think, almost ensures that after the initial flurry, that the better market— and when I say better market, I mean the ability to move large dollar amounts in both directions with a minimal movement of price, not by a huge margin, but the better market is likely to be in the A.

坦白说,我们也希望是这样。

And frankly, we hope that it is.

当然,我们也希望 B 能有一个不错的市场。

We still hope there's a good market in the B, obviously.

但如果你说的是十股 A,差不多就是三十万美元的投资,我觉得两个月之后,买入或卖出价值三十万美元的 A,对价格造成的百分比影响,很可能会比买入或卖出三十万美元的 B 略微小一点,不过也不会——

But if you're talking 10 shares of the A, which is a $300,000 or so investment, I think that 2 months from now, that it's likely to be that buying or selling $300,000 worth of A will have slightly less of a percentage impact than buying or selling $300,000 worth of B, but not by a—
M1
M13:12

百分之十?

10%?
M2
M23:13

不会大到那个程度。

Significant amount.

但这就是我那句话的意思,也就是 A 的市场会比 B 略微更好一点。

But that's what I meant by that comment of having a slightly better market in the A than the B.

这从我们的角度来看很重要,因为如果情况反过来,变成 B 的市场更好,那人们长期下来就会有很强的动力把 A 转成 B,最后 B 市场就会占主导。

And that's important from our standpoint, because if that situation became reversed and the B became the better market, then people would have a real incentive to convert from A to B over time, and eventually the B market would dominate.

我们并不预期这种事会发生,我觉得按照我们的安排,它不会发生,不过理论上是有可能的。

We don't anticipate that happening, and I think the way we've arranged it, it won't happen, but it could happen.
M1
M13:41

Charlie?

Charlie?
M2
M23:41

对,不过我觉得,我们在招股说明书的写法上,还有给销售经纪人的激励安排上,也都做了些设计,目的就是让个人投资者和机构投资者两边的需求都稍微降降温。

Yeah, well, I think we've also created arrangements in the way we've written the prospectus and rewarded the selling brokers that tend to dampen demand, both individual and institutional.

而且有时候,我们想做到的事还真能做到。

And we sometimes accomplish what we try to do.

四区?

Zone 4?

不过别来问我们一份名单,说哪些地方我们真的做到过。

Don't ask us for a list of those where we've accomplished it.