M10:00
现在，过去大概这两个月，当然大家都在想的是，美国在健康方面会是什么情况，以及在接下来的几个月、甚至也许几年里，美国经济会是什么情况。
Now, what's of course on everybody's mind the last 2 months or so is, you know, what's going to be the situation in terms of health in the United States and what's going to be the situation in terms of the economy in the United States in the months and perhaps the years to come.
至于健康方面，我其实也没有什么能补充你们已有的了解。
And I don't really have anything to add to your knowledge on health.
我上学的时候，会计学得还行，但生物简直一塌糊涂。
I, in school, I did okay in accounting, but I was a disaster in biology.
这些事情，我也是跟你们一样，一边听一边学。
And I'm learning about these various matters the same way you are.
而且我觉得——就我个人来说，能听 Dr. Fauci 讲话，让我感觉特别踏实。一年前我还从来没听说过他。
And I think— Personally, I feel extraordinarily good about being able to listen to Dr. Fauci, who I'd never heard of a year ago.
不过我觉得，作为一个国家，我们非常非常幸运，能有这样一个七十九岁的人，看起来好像一天二十四小时都在工作，而且还能一直保持很好的幽默感。
But I think we're very, very fortunate as a country to have somebody at 79 years of age who appears to be able to work 24 hours a day and keep a good humor about him.
而且他能用非常非常直接明了的方式，去讲一些相当复杂的话题，也会坦白告诉你，什么是他知道的，什么是他不知道的。
And communicate in a very, very straightforward manner about fairly complex subjects and tell you when he knows something and when he doesn't know something.
所以今天下午，我不会谈任何政治人物，也不会谈总体上的政治，不过我确实觉得——我欠 Dr. Fauci 很大一份感激，因为他一直在教育我、让我了解情况，呃，实际上还有我的朋友 Bill Gates 也是，他们都让我更清楚到底发生了什么。
So I'm not going to talk about any political figures at all or politics generally this afternoon, but I do feel that— that I owe a huge debt of gratitude to Dr. Fauci for educating and informing me, uh, actually along with my friend Bill Gates too, uh, as to what's going on.
而且我知道，不管是从他们两位中的哪一位那里听到，我听到的都是实话，都是直来直去的说法。
And I know I get it, I get it from a straight shooter when I get it from either one of, of those.
呃，所以，谢谢你，Dr. Fauci。
Uh, so thank you, Dr. Fauci.
呃，呃，当这件事突然砸到我们头上的时候，再看看我现在坐在这个礼堂里，周围有一万七千个到一万八千个空座位，嗯，我上次来这里的时候，可是坐得满满当当。
Uh, uh, when this hit us, and as I sit here in this auditorium with 17,000 or 18,000 empty seats, um, the last time I was here it was absolutely packed.
呃，当时是 Creighton 对阵 Villanova，全场有一万七千人还是一万八千人，反正能坐多少就坐满了。
Uh, Creighton was playing Villanova and there were 17,000 or 18,000, whatever it holds, it was full.
而那群观众里，没有一个人——
And there wasn't one person in that crowd.
那还是一月份。
This was in January.
那群观众里，没有一个人会觉得 March Madness 不会如期举行。
There wasn't one person in that crowd that didn't think that March Madness was going to occur.
我是说，这在全国民众的行为方式和整个国家的心理状态上，真的是一种巨大的、像开关一下被拨过去那样的转变。
I mean, it's been a flip of the switch in a huge way in terms of national behavior, the national psyche.
这非常戏剧化。
It's dramatic.
而当我们开始踏上这段并不是我们主动选择的路程时，呃，在我看来，不管是健康层面，还是经济层面，都存在着极其广泛的各种可能性。
And when we started on this journey, which we didn't ask for, uh, seemed to me there was an extraordinary wide variety of possibilities on both the, the, uh, health side and on the economic side.
我的意思是，呃，你知道，一边像是 DEFCON 5，另一边则像是 DEFCON——1。
I mean, it was, you know, there was DEFCON 5 on one side and DEFCON— 1.
一边是一级，另一边是五级，当然，实际上谁也不知道到底有哪些可能性，也不知道该给这些可能性分别赋予多大的概率。
One on the other side, and nobody really knows, of course, all the possibilities that there are, and they don't know what probability factor to stick on them.
但在这次这个特殊的情形下，在我看来，健康层面上可能发生的事情范围特别大，经济层面上的范围也同样特别大。
But in this particular situation, it did seem to me that there was an extraordinary range of things that could happen on the health side, and an extraordinary range in terms of the economy.
当然，这两者彼此交叉，也会互相影响。
And of course, they intersect and affect each other.
所以在事情发展过程中，它们会不断相互作用、相互碰撞。
So they're bouncing off each other as you go along.
所以我还想再说一遍，健康方面，我并不比你们知道得更多，但我确实觉得，在这方面，各种可能性的范围已经多少收窄了一些。
And I would say again, I don't, I don't know anything you don't know about health matters, but I do think the range of possibilities has narrowed down somewhat in that respect.
我们知道，最好的情况是不会出现了，而且我们也——我们知道，最坏的情况也没有发生。
We know we're not getting a best case, and, and we're— we know we're not getting— the worst case.
一开始，这个病毒到底会怎样，其实很难判断，到现在也依然很难判断。
The possibility initially of the virus was hard to evaluate, and it's still hard to evaluate.
关于它，我们已经学到了很多；也有很多事情，我们知道自己还不知道；但至少我们知道自己不知道什么，而且有一些非常聪明的人正在研究它，我们也在这个过程中不断学习。
There's a lot of things we've learned about it, a lot of things we know we don't know, but at least we know what we don't know, and some very smart people are working on it, and we're learning as we go along.
不过很明显，这个病毒的传播性非常强；但从好的一面说，也不能说有多好，不过它还没有致命到原本可能会达到的那种程度。
But the virus obviously has been very transmissible, and it's— but on the good side, it's not that good, but it is not as lethal as it might have been.
一九一八年我们经历过 Spanish flu，我父亲、他的四个兄弟姐妹，还有他的父母，都经历过那场疫情。关于这件事，三月十五日那期 Omaha World-Herald 上有一篇特别精彩的报道，你们可以去 omaha.com 查。
We had a Spanish flu in 1918, and my dad and 4 siblings and his parents went through it, and they have a terrific story in the March 15th edition of the Omaha World-Herald that you can go to omaha.com and look up.
我记得如果你在 Google 里搜 Spanish flu Omaha，它应该也会出现在第一页。
It's also on the first page, I believe, on Google if you put in Spanish flu Omaha.
在那段时间里，大概四个月左右吧，Omaha 我记得有 974 人死亡。
And during that particular time, in maybe four months or so, Omaha had 974, I believe, deaths.
那相当于总人口的 1% 的一半。
And that was half of 1% of the population.
嗯，而且这个数字跟全国范围相比，也没差太多。
Uh, and that figure wasn't greatly different than around, uh, the country.
所以如果你想想现在总人口的 1% 的一半，那差不多就是 170 万人，或者差不多这个数。
So if you think about half of 1% of the population now, you're talking 1.7 million or thereabouts people.
而且很不幸，如果从最坏的情况来看，这种情况看起来并不像。
And unfortunately, in terms of the worst case, this does not appear to.
事实上，我觉得你几乎可以排除它像 Spanish flu 那样致命的可能，但它的传播性非常、非常强。
In fact, I think you can almost rule out it being as lethal as the Spanish flu was, but it's very, very transmissible.
当然，我们还有个问题：我们并不知道它到底有多致命，因为我们不知道究竟有多少人得过，但自己并不知道自己得过。
And of course, we have the problem: we don't know the denominator in terms of exactly how lethal it is because we don't know how many people have had it and didn't know they had it.
不过无论如何，健康方面的概率范围已经缩小了一些。
But in any event, the range of probabilities on health have narrowed down somewhat.
我会说，概率范围，或者说可能性的范围，以及经济方面的范围，仍然大得惊人。
I would say the range of probabilities or possibilities and, uh, on the economic side are still extraordinarily wide.
是啊，我们并不知道，当你主动关闭社会中相当大一部分时，究竟会发生什么。
Yeah, we do not know exactly what happens when you voluntarily shut down a substantial portion of your society.
嗯，在 2008 和 2009 年，我们的经济列车，嗯，脱轨了，而且当时路基有些薄弱，银行啊之类的因素都有些问题。
Uh, in 2008 and '09, uh, our economic train, uh, went off the tracks, uh, and there were some reasons why the roadbed was weak in terms of the banks and all of that sort of thing.
但那次是列车自己冲出了轨道——这一次，我们是直接把列车从轨道上拖下来，停到了侧线。
But the train went—this time we just pulled the train off the tracks and put it on a siding.
而且，嗯，我真不知道有什么类似的情况，嗯，面对一个——嗯，世界上最重要的国家，嗯，生产力最高、人口又庞大，嗯，实际上把自己的经济和劳动力都闲置起来，显然也不可避免地制造了巨大的焦虑，改变了人们的心理状态，并且在很多情况下，让他们有些失去方向，这也是可以理解的。
And, uh, I don't really know of any parallel, uh, in terms of a very, very—well, the most important country in the world, uh, most productive, uh, huge population, um, in effect sidelining its economy and its workforce and, uh, obviously and unavoidably creating a huge amount of anxiety and changing people's psyche and causing them to somewhat lose their bearings in some—many cases, understandably.
这是一场相当大的实验，我们也许很快就能知道大多数问题的答案，但有些非常重要的问题，嗯，可能很多年以后我们都还不知道答案。
This is quite an experiment, and we may know the answer to most of the questions reasonably soon, but we may not know the answers, uh, to some very important questions for many years.
所以它仍然有着极其广泛的可能性。
So it still has this enormous range of possibilities.
但即便面对这一切，我还是想跟你们谈谈这个国家的经济前景，因为我一直坚信，就像我在 World War II 期间也坚信的一样。
But even facing that, I would like to talk to you about, uh, the economic future of the country, because I remain convinced, as I was convinced of this, uh, during World War II.
我在 Cuban Missile Crisis、9/11、金融危机期间都坚信这一点：那个，嗯，基本上没有什么能阻止 America。
I was convinced of it during the Cuban Missile Crisis, 9/11, the financial crisis, that, that, uh, uh, nothing could basically stop America.
而且，嗯，嗯，我们过去也面对过巨大的问题。
And, and, uh, uh, we faced great problems in the past.
只是我们还没有面对过这一个完全一样的问题。
We haven't faced this exact problem.
事实上，我们真的还没有面对过任何一个和这个问题非常相似的问题。
In fact, we haven't really faced anything that quite resembles this problem.
但我们面对过更严峻的问题，而 American miracle，American magic，始终都会胜出，这一次也会。
But we faced tougher problems, and the American miracle, the American magic, has always prevailed, and it will do so again.