巴菲特谈贝索斯：我严重低估了他的商业才华 — 文稿

F10:00

大家好，我叫 Joey，是 Wharton 的 MBA 在读生。

Hi, my name is Joey and I'm an MBA candidate at Wharton.

谢谢你们邀请我们来。

Thank you for having us.

Amazon 之所以带来了巨大的颠覆，靠的是 Jeff Bezos 非凡的才华。Charlie 刚才称他为我们这一代人的商业奇才。

Amazon has been hugely disruptive due to the brilliance of Jeff Bezos, whom Charlie earlier called the business mind of our generation.

您目前怎么看 Amazon？为什么 Berkshire 一直没有买入？

What is your current outlook on Amazon and why hasn't Berkshire bought in?

M10:21

嗯，因为我太愚钝了，没意识到后来会发生什么。虽然我很欣赏 Jeff，欣赏他已经很久很久了，也一直关注着他在做什么，但我没想到他能取得今天这么大的成就。

Well, because I was too dumb to realize what was going to happen, even though I admired Jeff, I've admired him for a long, long time and watched what he was doing, but I did not think that he could succeed on the scale he has.

而且，我当然完全没想到他还可能做 Amazon Web Services 或者云计算。

And I certainly didn't—I didn't even think about the possibility of doing anything with Amazon Web Services or the cloud.

所以，如果你当时问我，在他建立零售业务的同时，还能做出一些颠覆科技行业的东西，这种可能性对我来说会小得不得了。

So, uh, if you'd asked me the chances that while he was building up the retail operation that he would also be doing something that was disrupting the tech industry, that would have been a very, very long shot for me.

我低估了，我真的低估了他的执行才华。

And I've underestimated—I've really underestimated the brilliance of the execution.

我的意思是，梦想着在网上做这些事情是一回事，但真正做到，需要非常强的能力。

I mean, it's one thing to dream about doing this stuff online, but it takes a lot of ability.

你可以去读他一九九七年的年报，里面他已经列出了一张路线图。

And you can read his 1997 annual report, and he laid out a roadmap.

而他不仅做到了，而且取得了远超预期的成功。

And he's done it and done it in spades.

M11:34

至少我是这么认为的。

At least I did.

所以，说到底，它看起来一直都很贵，而我真的从来没想过他会走到今天这个位置。

So I just plain—it always looked expensive, and I really never thought that he would be where he is today.

我觉得他会有所成就，我一直觉得他非常有才华。

I thought he would do—I thought he was really brilliant.

但在三年前、五年前、八年前、十二年前，不管具体是哪一年，当我看这件事的时候，我没想到他会走到今天这个位置。

But I did not think he would be where he is today when I looked at it 3, 5, 8, 12 years ago, whenever it may have been.

Charlie，你怎么也没看出来？

Charlie, how did you miss it?

M22:02

这很容易错过。

It was easy.

他们在那里做成的事情其实非常难，而且当时一点也看不出来，最后会像现在这样成功。

What was done there was very difficult, and it was not at all obvious that it was all going to work as well as it did.

错过 Amazon 的成就，我并不觉得遗憾。不过，其他机会更容易看出来，我觉得我们确实有点搞砸了。

I don't feel any regret about missing out on the achievement—the achievements of Amazon, but other things were easier, and I think we screwed up a little.

M12:29

不，我们就别沿着这个话题说下去了。

No, we won't pursue that line.

M22:34

嗯，我指的是 Google。

Well, I meant Google.

M12:38

嗯，我们错过了很多机会。

Well, we missed a lot of things.

是的。

Yes.

我们错过了很多机会。

We missed a lot of things.

以后还会继续错过。

And we'll keep doing it.

M22:43

是啊。

Yeah.

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M11:25广告 · 已剔除

And if you haven't seen his interview on Charlie Rose three or four months ago, charlierose.com, go and listen to it because you'll learn a lot.