M20:52
对，关于指数基金，我会说，我会，我会直接选一个覆盖面很广的指数。
Yeah, I would say that, in terms of the index fund, I would, I would just take a very broad index.
我会选 S&P 500，前提是我不是一次性把所有钱都投进去。
I would take the S&P 500, as long as I wasn't putting all my money in at one time.
如果我要在二十年或者三十年的时间里，按相对平均的金额持续往指数基金里投钱，我就会选一只基金。
If I were going to put money into an index fund in relatively equal amounts over a 20- or 30-year period, I would pick a fund.
我知道 Vanguard 的费用非常低。
And I know Vanguard has very low costs.
我相信还有很多其他家也是这样。
I'm sure there are a whole bunch of others that do.
只是我没有专门去研究这个领域。
I just haven't looked at the field.
但我会非常留意相关的费用，因为他们为你做的事情，其实就只是买入那个指数。
But I would be very careful about the costs involved, because all they're doing for you is buying that index.
我觉得，平均来说，买这些指数基金的人，结果会比那些买高费用基金的人更好，因为这就是个数学问题。
I think that the people who buy those index funds on average will get better results than the people that buy funds that have higher costs attached to them, because it's just a matter of math.
如果有很大一部分资金是由机构来管理，而很多机构收费很高，另外一些收费很低，那它们拿到的毛收益会非常接近，但净收益会不一样。
If you have a very high percentage of funds being institutionally managed, and a great many institutions charge a lot of money for doing it and others charge a little, they're going to get very similar gross results but different net results.
我也建议你们所有人去读一下 John——John Bogle 在过去五年里写的几本书，我现在说不出书名，但那些书都非常好。
And I recommend to all of you reading John— John Bogle's written a couple of books in the last five years, and I can't give you the titles, but they're very good books.
任何投资基金的人，在投资之前都应该先读读那些书；如果你已经投了，还是应该去读。
And anybody investing in funds should read those books before investing, or if you've already invested, you still should read the books.
说真的，关于基金投资，你需要知道的基本都在里面了。
And it's all you need to know really about fund investing.
所以我会选一个宽基指数，但我不会在某一个时间点一下子扔进去一大笔。
So I would pick a broad index, but I wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time.
我会拉长时间慢慢投，因为指数基金的本质就是，你是在说，我认为 America 的企业在长期来看会有还不错的表现。
I would do it over a period of time because the very nature of index funds is that you are saying, I think America's business is going to do well over— reasonably well over a long period of time.
但我没有足够的本事去挑出赢家，我也没有足够的本事去挑对进场时机。
But I don't know enough to pick the winners, and I don't know enough to pick the winning times.
这没什么问题。
There's nothing wrong with that.
我就是没那个本事去选准时机。
I don't know enough to pick the winning times.
偶尔我觉得自己有足够把握能挑中一个赢家，但这种情况并不多。
Occasionally, I think I know enough to pick a winner, but not very often.
而且我当然也不可能把整张名单从头看到尾，然后说，这个是赢家，那个不是，诸如此类。
And I certainly can't pick winners by going down through the whole list and saying, this is a winner and this isn't, and so on.
所以，重要的是，如果你整体上觉得，长期来看，把钱放在企业里是个合理的选择，那你就应该在很长一段时间里持续投资，而不是在某一个时点一次性投进一大笔，等于是在暗中押注时机。
So the important thing to do, if you have an overall feeling that business is a reasonable place to have your money over a long period of time, is to invest over a long period of time and not make any bet implicitly by putting a big chunk in at a given time.
至于什么时候该买、什么时候不该买，我不觉得这里面有什么特别高明的判断标准。
As to the criteria as to when you should or shouldn't, I don't think there are any great criteria on that.
我不认为市盈率，你知道，能决定这些事。
I don't think price-earnings ratio, you know, determines things.
我不认为市净率、市销率——我不认为任何——在我看来，没有任何一个单一指标是我能给你的，或者别人能给你的，来告诉你现在是不是买股票的好时机，或者不该买股票，或者类似这种事。
I don't think price-book ratios, price-sales ratios— I don't think any— there's no single metric I can give you, or that anyone else can give you, in my view, that will tell you this is a great time to buy stocks or not to buy stocks or anything of the sort.
事情没那么简单。
It just isn't that easy.
所以你才去买指数基金，所以你才要拉长时间、持续去买。
That's why you go to an index fund, and that's why you buy over a period of time.
没那么简单。
It isn't that easy.
不简单。
Easy.
你靠看杂志是学不会这个的。
You can't get it by reading a magazine.
你靠看电视，你知道，也弄不明白这个。
You can't get it by, you know, watching television.
你当然很希望有这么个东西会告诉你，你知道，我是说，就是说，如果 P/E 在十二倍或以下，或者某个数字以下，你就买；如果在二十五倍或以上，你就卖。
You can't— you'd love to have something that said, you know, I mean, that, that, you know, if P/Es are 12 or below or some number, you buy, and if they're 25 or above, you sell.
但——事情不是这么运作的。
It is— it doesn't work that way.
这，这，这比那要复杂得多。
It's, it's, it's a more complex business than that.
你想想就知道，这事不可能那么容易。
It couldn't be that easy when you think about it.
嗯，所以如果你买的是指数基金，你其实是在保护自己，不受你不知道这些问题答案这个事实的影响；但与此同时，你也相信，就算不知道这些问题的答案，只要你清楚地认识到这一点，长期下来你依然能做得不错。
Uh, so if you are buying an index fund, you are protecting yourself against the fact that you don't know the answers to those questions, but that you think you can do well over time without knowing the answers to those questions, as long as you consciously recognize that, that fact.
还有，嗯，你知道，我会——如果你是年轻人，而且你打算长期持续把收入中的一部分存下来，我会说，就选一个覆盖面非常广的指数。
And, um, you know, I would— if you're a young person and you intend to save a portion of your income over time, I just say just pick out a very broad index.
我大概会用 S&P 500，因为我觉得你一旦再往外扩，就会开始想着这次是不是该配 small caps，下次是不是该配 large caps，或者买某一类 foreign stock。
And I would, I would probably use the S&P 500 because I think if you start getting beyond that, you start starting to think you should be in small caps this time and large caps that time, or this kind of foreign stock.
而你一旦这么做了，你知道，你就进入了一个你并不了解、说老实话你也没那个能力去玩的游戏。
And as soon as you do that, you know, you're in a game you don't know, you know, you're not equipped to play, in all candor.
这就是我的建议。
That would be my recommendation on it.