M20:59
对，那个十七年，当然，我当时也稍微玩了一点文字游戏，因为刚好有两个十七年周期，而且十七年蝉也是十七年一轮。
Yeah, the 17 years, of course, I had a little fun with because of the fact that there were two 17-year periods, and there are also 17-year locusts.
所以从写作的角度说，我稍微拉伸了一下这个说法，不过特定的时间跨度本身并没有什么神奇之处。
So I stretched it a little from a literary standpoint, but there is nothing magic about given spans of time.
那个三十四年周期里的前十七年和后十七年，确实有很大的不同。
There was something very different between the first 17 years of that 34-year period and the second 17.
我就是拿这个来形成一种比较有戏剧性的对比。
And I used that for kind of a dramatic, uh, contrast.
如果现在让我来写，我会说的，跟我刚才回答 Frank Martin 问题时说的差不多，就是——如果我必须在长期债券和长期持有股票之间选一个，我宁愿持有股票。
If I were writing something now, I would say what I said just a little earlier in response to Frank Martin's question, that it is— if I had to own, um, long bonds or a long-term position in equities, I'd rather have equities.
不过我对股票的预期不会很高，但我会预期它们能高于百分之四点七五。
But I would not have high expectations for them, but I would have expectations beyond 4.75%.
到底高多少，我也不确定，但至少要比百分之四点七五高出足够多，这样我才会更愿意持有股票而不是债券。
How much beyond, I'm not sure, but something enough beyond 4.75% that I would rather own equities than bonds.
我在一九九九年的感觉是，人们是在把前一个十七年的经历直接外推，觉得持有股票这件事本身有什么神奇魔力，而这些人注定会失望。
I felt in 1999 that people were extrapolating the experience of the previous 17 years and assuming there was something magic about owning equities, and the people were bound to be disappointed.
他们只是用外推法得出了一个不现实的看法，而那篇文章最主要的目的就是指出这一点。
They simply had an unrealistic view by extrapolation, and that was the main purpose of that article.
不过如果现在让我来写点什么，呃，我对股票的预期依然不会高，但我对股票的预期会比对债券更好。
But if I were writing something now, uh, I would not have high expectations for equities, but I would have better expectations for equities than for bonds.
Charlie？
Charlie?
对，而且我会说，自从那篇文章写出来之后，持有股票的结果一直都挺清淡的，至少跟前面那个辉煌的十七年比起来是这样。
Yeah, and I would say that since that article was written, the results from owning equities have been pretty lean, at least compared to what happened in the glorious 17 years that preceded.
所以到目前为止，Warren 一直是对的，而且他现在说要保持适度预期，可能也是对的。
So Warren has been right so far, and he's probably right now when he says modest expectations.
对，在市场里，你真的没法每天、每周，甚至每个月，都说出特别重要或者特别聪明的话。
Yeah, you really don't have— in markets, you can't say something terribly important or intelligent every day or every week or every month.
这就是为什么如果你太频繁上电视，或者每周都写信之类的，会有问题。
That's one of the problems if you went on television too often or wrote weekly letters or something of the sort.
偶尔你是会碰到一些非常极端的情况。
Every now and then you get something extreme.
我是说，我确实在一九六九年关闭了那个 partnership，后来也出过一篇文章。
I mean, I did close down the partnership in 1969, and an article appeared.
我在七四年也确实接受过一次采访。
I did give an interview in '74.
我在八一年或者八二年又接受过一次采访。
I gave another interview in '81 or '82.
我的意思是，市场偶尔真的会严重失衡，但中间那些细微层次，呃，实在太难判断了。
I mean, every now and then things really get out of whack, but the gradations in between, uh, they're too tough.