2007年股东大会 · 巴菲特：我是如何挑选投资经理的 — 文稿

M10:00

John Stievo，来自 Chicago 的股东。

John Stievo, shareholder from Chicago.

Buffett 先生，Munger 先生，谢谢你们带来这么棒的一个周末。

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, thank you for the great weekend.

你们在年度致股东信里提到，你们在找更年轻一点的人，可能到 Berkshire 工作。我想问问，您能不能多展开讲讲这件事？还有，我要怎么申请这份工作呢？

In your annual shareholders' letter, you stated that you're looking for someone younger to possibly work at Berkshire, and I was wondering if you could expand on that, and how would I apply for the job?

M20:27

我觉得你刚刚已经申请了。

I think you just did.

他们，呃，我们在找，我们在找一个或者更多这样的人。

They, uh, we're looking for, we're looking for one or more.

我的意思是，我觉得完全不是没有可能，我们甚至会找到三四个人，然后决定让他们管一部分资金，再进一步近距离观察。

I mean, I would, I don't think it's at all impossible we might even find 3 or 4 that we would decide to, to have run some money and to take a closer look.

我们不是在找一个来接受培训的人。

We're not looking for someone to teach.

我在年报里可能没有把这一点说得足够清楚。

I, I probably didn't make that clear enough in the annual report.

我们不会去当导师，也不会当老师，或者做任何类似的事。

We're not, we're not going to be mentors or teachers or anything of the sort.

我们找的是那种我们认为本来就知道该怎么做的人。

We're looking for somebody that we think knows how to do it.

而且这样的人，外面是有的。

And there are people like that out there.

我们已经收到了六百到七百人的来信。

We've heard from 600 or 700.

我确实还收到过一封来信——对方说他有个四岁的儿子。

I did hear— I heard from one that had a 4-year-old son.

我觉得那真是相当抬举我了——我的意思是，我知道连穴居人都能做我的工作——一个四岁的儿子？

I thought that was quite a compliment that they thought— I mean, I knew a caveman— 4-year-old son.

我觉得那真是相当抬举我了——我的意思是，我知道连穴居人都能做我的工作，但四岁的孩子也行？

I thought that was quite a compliment that they thought— I mean, I knew a caveman could do my job, but a 4-year-old?

不过我们确实在找，而且我们也听到了不少非常聪明的人的消息。

But we're looking, and, and we have heard from a number of very intelligent people.

我们也接触到不少人，他们近些年有不错的投资记录，有些人的表现甚至相当好。

We have heard from a number of people that have had good investment records for— in recent years, and in some cases, sometimes.

我们面临的最大问题是，他们的能力能不能放大到更大的规模，因为管理一千亿美元，和管理一亿美元，完全是两种不同的工作。

The biggest problem we have is whether they would scale up, because it's a, it's a different, it's a different job to run $100 billion than it is to run $100 million.

顺便说一句，从回报率的角度讲，管理一千亿美元，不可能像管理一亿美元那样做得那么好。

And incidentally, and you can't do as well running $100 billion as $100 million in, in terms of returns.

根本不可能接近。

You can't come close to doing it.

这一点我们并不在意，呃，但我们确实想找到那种我们认为能管理大笔资金，而且表现能比证券市场整体水平稍微好一点的人。

That doesn't bother us, uh, but we do want to find somebody that we think can run large sums of money mildly better than, uh, the general performance in securities.

我强调一下，是稍微好一点。

And I emphasize mildly.

拿着一千亿美元，不管是谁，都不可能每年跑赢 S&P 十个百分点。

There's no way in the world somebody's going to beat the S&P by 10 percentage points a year with $100 billion.

这种事不会发生。

It isn't going to happen.

但我们觉得，也许我们能找到某个人，或者某个团队，或者其中几个人，可能可以做到高出两三个百分点。

But we think maybe we can find somebody or some group, several of them, that can maybe be a couple percentage points better.

不过，我们真正关心的是，要确保我们找到的人，在那些别人甚至还没见过的市场环境下，也不会搞砸。

But we really are interested in being sure that we have somebody that, under conditions that people haven't even seen yet, will not blow it.

你知道，任何东西乘以零都还是零，中间有多少漂亮数字我都不在乎。

You know, anything times zero is zero, and I don't care how many wonderful figures are in between.

所以我们要找的是那种天生就有这种判断方式的人：别人看不到的、还没发生的风险，他们能看到；而那些已经发生过的风险，他们也非常清楚。

So we are looking for somebody that's wired in a way that they see risks that other people don't see that haven't occurred, and they're plenty cognizant of the risks that have occurred.

而这样的人，相当少见。

And those people are fairly rare.

Charlie 和我见过很多非常聪明的人。

Charlie and I have seen a lot of very smart people.

要么把钱赔光，呃，要么最后业绩非常平庸。你知道，他们做的一百件事里，九十九件都很聪明，但第一百件就把他们彻底毁了。

Go broke and, uh, or end up with very mediocre records where, you know, 99 out of the 100 things they did were intelligent, but the 100th did them in.

所以我们的工作，就是要从这几百份、几百份申请里筛选，找出那么一两个人，我们觉得他们能胜任这份工作，而且可能还年轻得多。先给他们一大块资金，二十亿、三十亿、五十亿美元，让他们管一段时间；让他们去管理那种他们以后如果把组合做大，也会继续投资的证券。因为——然后，呃，到某个时候，这份工作最终会交给他们中的一个或者几个人。

So our job is to filter through these hundreds and hundreds of applications, find a couple of them that we think can do the job, who are much younger perhaps, give them a chunk, $2, $3, $5 billion, have them manage it for some time, have them manage it in the kind of securities that they, they would scale up to a larger portfolio, because— and then, uh, either one or more of them will get the job turned over to them at some point.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M33:55

对，我们现在找这种帮手的处境，让我想到一个关于 Mozart 的传闻故事。

Yeah, our situation in looking for this help reminds me of an apocryphal tale about Mozart.

有个大概二十五岁的年轻人，有一次想见 Mozart。他说，我在考虑开始写交响乐了，想听听你的建议。

And a young man of 25 or so once asked to see Mozart, and he said, I'm thinking of starting to write symphonies, and I'd like to get your advice.

Mozart 就说，嗯，你太年轻了，还不能写交响乐。

And Mozart said, well, you're too young to write symphonies.

那个人就说，可你十岁的时候就在写了啊。

And the guy says, but you were writing them when you were 10 years old.

Mozart 就说，对，他说，可我当时可没有去问别人该怎么写。

And Mozart says, yes, he says, but I wasn't asking anybody else for advice how to do it.

所以，如果你让自己想起年轻时的 Mozart，那你就是我们要找的人。

And so, if you remind yourself of young Mozart, why, you're the man for us.

M24:39

我们会找到人的，大概会找出一两位。

We will, we will come up with probably a couple of people.

而且，你知道，这些年来，我认识过一些这样的人。

And, you know, it's, it's, I've known people over the years.

我以前也经历过这种事。

I've been in the job before.

我是说，一九六九年，我结束了自己的 partnership，当时有很多信任我的人。

I mean, in 1969, I wound up my partnership, and I had a lot of people that trusted me.

我不可能就只是把钱寄还给他们，然后跟他们说再见，因为那样的话，他们大多数人都会有点失去方向。

And I wasn't going to just mail the money back to them and, you know, say goodbye because they would have been sort of adrift, most of them.

所以我当时的任务，就是找一个人来接替我。

And so I had the job of finding somebody to replace me.

当时有三位绝对出类拔萃的人选。

And there were 3 absolutely standout candidates.

这三个人里，任何一个都是非常棒的选择。

Any one of the 3 would have been a great choice.

Charlie 是其中之一。

Charlie was one of them.

Sandy Gottesman 是其中之一。

Sandy Gottesman was one of them.

Bill Ruane 也是其中之一。

And Bill Ruane was one of them.

Charlie 对再多一些 partners 不感兴趣。

Charlie wasn't interested in having more partners.

Sandy 对 individual accounts 感兴趣，也接手了我一些 partners 的账户，他们非常非常满意，而且到现在仍然很庆幸他当时接了。

Sandy was interested in, in individual accounts and took on the accounts of some of my partners, and they were very, very happy, and they're still happy that he did it.

而 Bill Ruane 则专门设立了一只独立的 mutual fund，叫 Sequoia Fund，来照顾所有这些 partners，不管他们的资金规模小不小。

And Bill Ruane set up a separate mutual fund called Sequoia Fund to take care of all of the partners, whether they had small amounts or not.

而且他干得非常出色。

And he did a sensational job.

所以一九六九年，我确实识别出了三个人，他们不仅是非常优秀的资金管理人，而且也是那种绝不会让你遭遇灾难性结果的人，同时还是非常出色的资本 steward。

So I really identified 3 people in 1969 that were not only superior money managers, but that were also the kind that could never get you a terrible result, and that were terrific stewards of capital.

当时他们跟我年纪差不多，所以那是一个我很熟悉的圈子。

Now, they were about my age at the time, so it was a, it was a universe that I was familiar with.

而现在我的问题是，凡是我认识的、跟我年龄接近的人，反正我们也不想要。

And now I have the problem that the people I know that are anywhere close to my age, we don't want anyway.

而且，另外，他们大多数也已经很有钱了。

And besides, most of them are already rich.

他们不在乎有没有这份工作。

They don't care about having a job.

但我必须——所以我得去看一个年龄层，在那个年龄层里，我其实并不认识很多人，不过这件事是可以做到的。

But I have to— so I have to look into an age cohort where I don't really know lots of people, but it can be done.

就像我说的，一九六九年，我们用三个人成功做到了；一九七九年，GEICO 也靠 Lou Simpson 成功做到了。

And like I say, we did it successfully with 3 people in 1969, and it was done successfully in 1979 with Lou Simpson for GEICO.

而且在我在这儿下面机场见到 Lou Simpson 之前，我根本不认识他。我跟他聊了几个小时，很明显，他是那种资本的守护者。

And I never knew Lou Simpson before I met him down at the airport here, and I spent a few hours with him, and it was clear that he was the— he was a steward of capital.

他会拿到高于平均水平的结果，而且几乎没有可能做出糟糕的结果。

He was going to get an above-average result, and there was no chance he was going to get a bad result.

到现在，他已经为 GEICO 管理资金大概二十八年了。

And he's been managing money for GEICO now for 28 years, roughly.

所以，这件事是做得到的。

So it's, it's doable.

只是这比我喜欢做的工作要稍微多一点。

It's a little more work than I like to do.

我算是有点被惯坏了，不过，呃，这件事是我的职责，我会去做。

I've been kind of spoiled, but, uh, I'll, uh, I've got a job to do on it, and I'll do it.

第四个。

Number 4.