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可口可乐等巴菲特买了几十年的公司还值得持有吗?

39 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 4:54
F1
F10:00

这个问题来自 Oklahoma 州 Tulsa 的一位股东,叫 Mark Blackley。他说,Berkshire 一些核心持股最近的新闻比平时更多:Wells Fargo 的激励机制和新开户丑闻;American Express 失去了 Costco 的合作关系,而且在高端信用卡领域还在努力追赶;United Airlines 的客户服务问题;还有 Coca-Cola 的汽水消费放缓。

This question comes from a shareholder named Mark Blackley in Tulsa, Oklahoma, who says, there has been more news than usual in some of Berkshire's core stock holdings: Wells Fargo and the incentive and new account scandal; American Express losing the Costco relationship and playing catch-up in the premium card space; United Airlines and customer service issues; Coca-Cola and slowing soda consumption.

Berkshire 会花多少时间来审视这些股票持仓?如果 Berkshire 还继续持有这些股票,我们是否可以放心地认为,当初的投资逻辑依然成立?

How much time is spent reviewing Berkshire's stock holdings, and is it safe to assume if Berkshire continues to hold these stocks that the thesis remains intact?
M1
M10:34

嗯,我们确实会花很多时间去思考——这些都是非常大的持仓。

Well, we spend a lot of time thinking— those are very large holdings.

如果把 American Express、Coca-Cola 和 Wells Fargo 加在一起,我是说,这个金额已经是好几十亿美元,而且是非常高的那个区间了。

If you add up American Express, Coca-Cola, and Wells Fargo, I mean, you're getting up, you know, well into the high tens of billions of dollars.

而且这些都是我们喜欢的企业。

And those are businesses we like.

非常喜欢。

Very much.

它们各自的特点也不一样。

They're different characteristics.

至于——你提到的 United Airlines——实际上,我们是四大航空公司这四家里面,每一家最大的股东,所以这更多是一个行业层面的判断。

In the case of— you mentioned United Airlines— we actually are the largest holder of all 4 of the large— we're the largest holder of the 4 largest airlines, and that is much more of an industry thought.

不过所有企业都会有问题,而其中一些也有非常大的优点。

But all businesses have problems, and some of them have some very big pluses.

我个人——他们刚才提到了 American Express。

I personally— they mentioned American Express.

如果你去看 American Express 的第一季度报告,再看看他们的 Platinum Card,Platinum Card 的表现其实非常好。

If you read American Express's first quarter report and talk about their Platinum Card, the Platinum Card is doing very well.

他们在全球的增长,你知道,我记得英国的签账额增长大概是百分之十七左右,还有百分之十五——这个是按原始货币、也就是当地货币来算的——像 Japan、Mexico,还有美国,表现都非常不错。

The gains around the world, you know, I think there were 17% or something like that in billings in the UK and 15%— this is in original currency or the local currency— Japan, Mexico, and very good in the United States.

这些行业里全都有竞争。

There's competition in all these businesses.

如果我们当初买 American Express、Wells Fargo、United Airlines 或者 Coca-Cola,是因为觉得它们永远不会出问题、永远不会有竞争,那我们就不会买了。

If we thought— we did not buy American Express or Wells Fargo or United Airlines or Coca-Cola with the idea that they would never have problems or never have competition.

我们之所以买它们,是因为我们认为它们的实力非常非常强,而且我们喜欢它们的财务政策。

What we did buy— why we did buy them is we thought they had very, very strong hands, and we liked the financial policies.

就其中很多家公司来说,我们,我们喜欢,我们喜欢它们所处的位置。

In the case of many of them, we, we like, we like their position.

我们买过很多企业,我们,我们确实会看它们是不是拥有我们认为能长期持续的竞争优势。

We've bought a lot of businesses, and we, we do look to see where we think they have durable competitive advantage.

而且我们也明白,如果你拥有一家非常好的企业,就一定会有很多竞争对手想把它从你手里抢走。

And we recognize that if you've got a very good business, you're going to have plenty of competitors who are going to try and take it away from you.

然后你就要去判断,你所投资的这家公司、它的产品,还有它的管理层,到底有没有能力挡住这些竞争对手。

And then you make a judgment as to the ability of your particular company and product and management to ward off competitors.

他们不会消失,但我们认为——我就不点具体名字了——不过总体来说,这些公司都处在非常有利的位置。

They won't go away, but we think— I'm not going to get into the specific names on it, but those companies generally are very well positioned.

我一直打个比方,本质上,如果你拥有一家很棒的企业,哪怕它很小,比如 See's Candies,你基本上就是拥有了一座经济上的城堡。

I've likened essentially, if you've got a wonderful business, even if it's a small one like See's Candies, you basically have an economic castle.

而在资本主义社会里,别人一定会想办法把你的城堡夺走,所以你需要在周围挖一道护城河,用各种方式来保护它。

And in capitalism, people are going to try and take away that castle from you, so you want a moat around it protecting it in various ways that can protect it.

然后你还得在城堡里有一个非常厉害的骑士,能把那些入侵者挡在外面。

And then you want a knight in the castle that's pretty darn good at warding off marauders.

但入侵者总会有,而且永远不会消失。

But they're going to be marauders and they'll never go away.

还有,呃,如果你去看,呃,我记得 Coca-Cola 是一八八六年,American Express 是十八——我也记不清了,大概是一八五一年或者一八五二年,呃,最早是从 express 业务起家的。

And, uh, if you look at, uh, I think Coca-Cola was 1886, American Express was 18— I don't know, '51 or '52, uh, starting out with an express business.

呃,呃,Wells Fargo 是——呃,我也不记得它是哪一年成立的。

Uh, uh, Wells Fargo was— uh, I don't know what year they were started.

顺便说一句,American Express 也是 Wells Fargo 创办的。

Incidentally, American Express was started by Wells Fargo as well.

呃,所以这些公司经历过很多挑战,以后也还会有更多挑战。

Uh, so these companies had lots of challenges, and they'll have more challenges.

而且我们持有的这些公司都经历过挑战。

And the companies we own have had challenges.

呃,我们的保险业务也经历过挑战,不过,你知道,我们最早是从 National Indemnity 开始的,那是我们在一九六八年用八百万美元买下来的。

Uh, our insurance business has had challenges, but, you know, we started with National Indemnity, an $8 million purchase in 1968.

幸运的是,我们有像 GEICO 的 Tony Nicely 这样的人,还有 Ajit Jain,他已经帮我们增加了几十亿美元的价值。

And fortunately, we've had people like Tony Nicely at GEICO, and we've had Ajit Jain, who's added tens of billions of value.

我们还有一些比较小的公司,你可能甚至都没听说过,但它们确实为我们干得特别出色。

And we've got some smaller companies that you probably don't even know about but really have done a terrific job for us.

所以,保险业里永远都会有竞争,但是也永远都会有事情可做。一个真正聪明的管理层,再加上还不错的分销体系,以及其他各种有利条件,是能够把那些来抢食的人挡在外面的。

So there'll always be competition in insurance, but, but there'll always be—there'll always be things to do that a really intelligent management with a decent distribution system, various things going for them, can do to ward off the marauders.

所以,回到那个具体问题上,你问我们花多少时间来审视这些持仓,我会说,我每天都在看。

So I, to the specific question, how much time is spent reviewing the holdings, I would say that I do it every day.

我也相信 Charlie 每天都在看。

And I'm sure Charlie does it every day.

Charlie?

Charlie?

嗯,我觉得这点上我也没什么可补充的。

Well, I don't think I got anything to add to that either.

好吧,要是他在这儿不参与发言,我们就给他减薪。

Well, we'll cut his salary if he doesn't participate here.

好,Jay Gelb。

Okay, Jay Gelb.