2011年股东大会 · 通胀时期，伯克希尔旗下表现最好的业务是什么 — 文稿

F10:00

这个问题来自 South Carolina 州 Charleston 的 Mark Jordan。

This question comes from Mark Jordan in Charleston, South Carolina.

他写道，在高通胀时期，Berkshire Hathaway 旗下哪些具体业务会表现最好，哪些会表现最差，为什么？

He writes, in a period of high inflation, which particular businesses owned by Berkshire Hathaway will perform the best, and which will perform the worst, and why?

M10:14

嗯，表现最好的业务，是那种为了支撑通胀下的增长，不需要投入太多资本，而且自身地位很强、能够随着通胀提价的业务。

Well, the businesses that will perform the best are the ones that require little capital investment to facilitate inflationary growth and that have strong positions that allow them to increase prices with inflation.

你知道，比如说，我们有一家糖果业务，自从我们买下那家糖果公司以后，美元的价值大概至少已经跌了百分之八十五吧，我会说大概跌了百分之八十到百分之八十五。

And, you know, we have, we have a candy business, for example, and the value of the dollar since we bought that candy business has probably fallen at least 85%, I would say, 80 to 85%.

而那家糖果业务卖出的糖果重量，比我们收购时大概多了百分之七十五，但它的营收增长到了十倍，而且并不需要多出很多资本。

And that candy business sells 75% more pounds of candy than it did, uh, when we bought it, but it has 10 times the revenues and it doesn't take a lot more capital.

所以，这类业务——任何一种能够有足够定价自由、可以靠提价抵消通胀，而且不需要相应增加投资、或者不需要巨额投资来支撑的业务，都会表现不错。

So that kind of a business— any business that can— has enough freedom to price to offset inflation and doesn't require commensurate investment or a huge investment to support it will do well.

像我们的公用事业这类业务，实际上拿到的是一种类似债券的回报；但如果你要建一座发电厂，每千瓦时产能的成本变成原来的两倍，而你最终拿到的却只是固定回报；如果通胀很高，债券收益率又可能大幅上升，那么这种业务就不会表现得那么好。

Uh, businesses like our utilities, which get in effect a bond-like return but require, you know, if you're going to build a generating plant that costs twice as much per kilowatt-hour of capacity, uh, and all you're going to get is a fixed return, and yields on bonds go up perhaps dramatically if you get high inflation, uh, is not going to do that well.

在通胀时期，它因为带有某些类似债券投资的特性，所以通常不会太好；而债券一般在通胀中也不会有好表现。

In an inflationary period, just because it has certain aspects of a bond-like investment, and bonds generally are not going to do well in inflation.

M21:57

不过，像我们的保险业务，我们这种资本密集型的铁路业务，毫无疑问是世界上最好的铁路公司之一，我们的公用事业业务也毫无疑问是世界上最好的公用事业业务之一。

Well, but like our insurance operations, our capital-intensive railroad business is certainly one of the best railroads in the world, and our utility operations are certainly one of the best utility operations in the world.

所以，在你的核心业务上能做到世界级，也并不全是坏事。

And so it isn't all bad to be up there world-class in your main businesses.

M12:26

我们的铁路——政府一直在讨论要在 California 建一个高速铁路系统。

Our railroad— the government's talked about building a high-speed rail system in California.

我想他们说的是大概八百英里的轨道。

I think they're talking about 800 miles of track.

他们当时估算的成本，大约是四百三十亿美元。

And their estimated cost, uh, was about $43 billion.

而工程建设这类项目的成本预估，很多时候都会大幅上升，远比哪怕小幅下降更常见。

And estimated costs on construction and things like that go up dramatically much more often than they get reduced even by a minor amount.

当然，我们当时花的也是四百三十亿美元，把承接的债务也算进去。

And of course, we paid $43 billion, counting debt assumed.

买到的是一整套铁路系统，拥有两万两千英里的主干线、六千多台机车，还有一万三千座桥——如果你哪天想买桥的话。

For a rail system which has 22,000 miles of main track and 6,000-plus locomotives and, and, uh, 13,000 bridges, if you ever want to buy a bridge.

所以，在通胀时期，这项资产的重置价值本身就已经非常惊人了。

Uh, so that— the replacement value of that asset during inflation already is huge.

而且它还会大幅增长。

And it would grow dramatically.

这个世界——我们国家——永远都需要铁路运输。

And the world— our country will always need, uh, rail transportation.

所以，这绝对是一项非常棒的资产。

Uh, so it, it is a terrific asset to own.

我就说到这儿。

I'll just leave it at that.