2013年股东大会 · 巴菲特也会用彼得林奇式的投资方法（买身边的公司） — 文稿

M10:06

嗯，Mae West 有句名言，她说，我从来对比分没兴趣，我只对比赛本身有兴趣。

Um, Mae West once said, the score never interested me, only the game.

你现在是不是也到了这样一个阶段，就是比赛本身比比分更让你感兴趣？

Are you at the point now where the game interests you more than the score?

不过在你回答这个问题之前，先让我解释一下我为什么这么问。

But before you answer the question, let me explain to you why I asked it.

过去，你的研究一直都是全方位的，不管是从你花在挑选投资和收购上的时间来看，还是从分析的强度来看，都是这样。

In the past, your research has been all-encompassing, whether measured in time devoted to selecting investments and acquisitions or the intensity of analysis.

你以前很在意去了解一家公司的各种细枝末节，哪怕是最微小的东西。

You were interested in the old days of knowing the slightest minutiae about a company.

你以前在评价 Ben Rosner 的时候说过一句话，我引用一下：“强度是卓越的代价。”引用结束。

You once said in characterizing Ben Rosner, quote, intensity is the price of excellence, close quote.

你的研究风格这些年看起来像是慢慢变了，从那种侦探式的分析——我会想到 American Express 那次——也就是你雇了 Jonathan 的父亲 Henry Brandt 的时候。

Your research style has seemed to morph over time from a sleuth-like analysis—American Express comes to mind—when you hired Jonathan's dad, Henry Brandt.

你和他当时做了好几周的分析、实地走访，还有渠道核查，而你后来的那些投资里，就没那么多这样做了。

You and he conducted weeks of analysis and site visits and channel checks, not so much in the later investments.

再比如一个例子，大家都知道，你当年决定投资 Bank of America 的想法，是在浴缸里冒出来的。

And as an example, you famously thought of making the Bank of America investment in your bathtub.

这种从高强度到没那么高强度的转变，背后其实也传递出一种投资上的信息。

There is an investment message of this transformation from being intense to less intense.

你能不能解释一下——请你解释一下——这在多大程度上是和市场有关，和 Berkshire 的体量有关，或者是其他一些因素造成的？

Would you explain—please explain the degree it has to do with the market, Berkshire's size, or some other factors?

M21:21

对，我想，我想其实你要想把一件事做好，你就必须真心热爱它。当然也许会有例外，但如果你真的是每一分钟都无比热爱自己在做的事，那会是一个非常非常巨大的优势，而这件事的本质就是，这种强度会提升你的效率。

Yeah, I think, I think actually you have to love something to do well at it, and there may be exceptions on that, but it is an enormous, enormous advantage if you absolutely love what you're doing every minute of it, and that the nature of it is that that intensity adds to your productivity.

而我身上的那种强度一点都没少，只不过表现方式不完全一样了，但它每一分钟都在那里。

And I have every bit of the intensity, not manifested exactly the same way, but it's there every minute.

我的意思是，我喜欢思考 Berkshire。

I mean, I love thinking about Berkshire.

我喜欢思考它的投资。

I love thinking about its investments.

我喜欢思考它的那些企业。

I love thinking about its businesses.

我喜欢思考它的经理人。

I love thinking about its managers.

它就是我生命的一部分。

It's part of me.

而且确实，你没法把比赛和记分牌分开。

And it is true you can't separate the game from the scorecard.

我的意思是，记分牌本来就是你参与比赛、热爱比赛的一部分。

I mean, your scorecard is part of playing the game and loving the game.

嗯，对我来说，收益本身你知道，并不重要，但收益是记分牌的一部分，所以它会随着记分牌一起出现。

Uh, the proceeds are, you know, to me, are unimportant, but the proceeds are part of the scorecard, so they come with it, with the scorecard.

但更重要的还是别的东西。

But it's, it's much more important.

嗯，我的意思是——这一点毫无疑问。

Uh, I mean, I would—there's no question about it.

就算到了现在我一股 Berkshire 都不持有，就算我拿不到任何报酬，我对 Berkshire 的感觉也还是一样。

I would feel the same way about Berkshire at this point if I didn't own a share of it, if I didn't get paid.

我的意思是，这就是我这辈子喜欢做的事，所以我才会去做。

I mean, it's what I like doing in life, and that's why I do it.

所以我不觉得你这个观察——我觉得这其实不是一个准确的判断，Charlie 也可以说说——说因为我们现在做事的方式有点不一样了，所以那种强度或者激情就消失了。

So I don't think you'll—I don't think it's actually a correct observation, and Charlie can comment on this, to say that because we're doing things in a somewhat different way that any of the intensity or the passion has been lost.

对我来说，没有什么比找到一个新的东西加进 Berkshire 更有意思了，四十年前是这样，现在也是这样，我希望十年以后也还是这样。

There's nothing more fun for me than finding something new to add to Berkshire, and that was true 40 years ago, it's true now, and will be true 10 years from now, I hope.

Charlie，你会怎么回答这个问题？

Charlie, how would you answer that?

M33:23

嗯，我觉得你第一次买 American Express 的时候，对它还没有那么了解，所以很自然，你就会挖得特别深。

Well, I think when you bought American Express for the first time, you didn't know that much about it, so naturally you were digging in rather deeply.

第二次你再买它的时候，我记得你是和 Olson 一起上了高尔夫球场。

The second time you bought it, I remember you got on the golf course with Olson.

M23:36

Frank Olson，没错。

Frank Olson, yep.

M33:38

你刚也看到了，就算他想摆脱 American Express，他也做不到，然后你第二次又买了它。

And you just saw how he couldn't get rid of American Express if he wanted to, and then you bought it the second time.

那个研究本身还是很扎实。

The research was still just good.

第一次很难，第二次就容易了。

The first one was hard and the second was easy.

M23:51

这都是累积起来的。

It's all cumulative.

M33:52

对，实际上就是累积效应。

Yeah, it's cumulative, actually.

M23:54

对。

Yeah.

你知道，我一九五一年一月，在一个星期六坐在 GEICO，跟 Lorimer Davidson 聊天时学到的东西，到现在对我还有用，而且我不用再学第二遍。

And you know, what I learned sitting with Lorimer Davidson on a Saturday at GEICO in January of 1951 is still useful to me, and I don't have to learn it a second time.

我可以在那个基础上继续往上加。

I can build on it.

不过这也是投资最棒的一点之一。

But that's one of the great things about investing.

我的意思是，这个世界里的机会足够多，你能找到很多机会，但它又不是那种时时刻刻都在发生剧烈变化的东西。

I mean, the universe, there's enough in it so that you can find lots of opportunities, but it's not like it's changing dramatically all the time.

有些事情可能会变，我们要是不懂那一块，就根本不去玩那部分的游戏。

There's some things that may change, and we just don't play in that part of the game if we don't understand them.

不过 Charlie 说得对。

But what Charlie says is true.

一九六三年十一月 salad oil scandal 爆发的时候，我对 American Express 可以说一无所知，但我觉得自己看到了一个机会，所以我就去学了很多关于它的东西，我还跑去餐馆，跟人聊 travel and entertainment cards——当时就是这么叫的。

I didn't know a thing about American Express when the salad oil scandal hit in November of 1963, but I thought I saw an opportunity, so I learned a lot about it, and I went around to restaurants and talked to people about travel and entertainment cards, as they were called then.

我也了解了 traveler's checks。

I learned about traveler's checks.

我跟银行谈，我当时就在不断吸收这些知识。

I talked to banks, and I was absorbing some knowledge.

后来，就像 Charlie 说的，我们在 Prouts Neck 跟 Frank Olson 打高尔夫，那时候他在负责 Hertz Corp.，他告诉我，不管怎么样，他都不可能摆脱 American Express，甚至连让他们降点手续费都做不到。

And then, as Charlie said, when we were up at Prouts Neck playing golf with Frank Olson, and he was running the Hertz Corp., and he was telling me that there was no way in the world that he could get rid of American Express or even get them to cut their fees.

这就是我喜欢的那种生意，而且我已经懂得足够多了，可以开始买进相当数量的股票。

That was my kind of business, and I knew enough to proceed to buy a fair amount of stock.

到现在，我们持有的比例，不管具体是多少吧，大概是这家公司百分之十三左右，而且他们还在持续回购自己的股票。

And now we own whatever it is, probably 13% of the company or thereabouts, and they keep buying in their stock.

我们自己已经没法再继续买更多股票了。

We can't buy any more stock ourselves.

二零零九年三月，Joe Kernen 就问过我这个问题，为什么你们不买 American Express 的股票？

I got asked that question in March of 2009 by Joe Kernen, why aren't you buying the stock of American Express?

嗯，因为那时候它是个 bank holding company，我们一股都不能再加了，不过他们自己在替我们做这件事。

Well, it was a bank holding company, and we couldn't add a share, but they are doing it for us.

这一点我特别喜欢。

And I love that.

在 Coca-Cola、Wells Fargo，还有程度稍微小一点的 IBM，以及我们大多数持有的公司里，我们在公司的权益占比每年都在提高，因为这些公司在回购股份，而且它们赚的钱大概率也更多了。

At Coca-Cola, at Wells Fargo, to a lesser degree at IBM, at most of our companies, our interest in the company goes up every year because the companies are repurchasing shares and they probably earn more money.

所以我们等于拿到了双重好处。

So we got a double play going for us.

不过我向你保证，那份热情并没有消失。

But the passion is not gone, I promise you.

一号麦。

Station 1.