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芒格:格雷厄姆的投资法到今天将在不再适用

78 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 8:32
M1
M10:00

嗨,我是 Brady Richie,来自 Missouri 的 St. Louis,从一九九六年开始就是股东了。

Hi, I'm Brady Richie from St. Louis, Missouri, shareholder since 1996.
M2
M20:05

太好了。

Terrific.
M1
M10:06

Warren,你和 Charlie 过去一直对商学院以及它们教的东西持批评态度。

Warren, you and Charlie have been critical of business schools in the past and what they teach.

说到价值投资,在《Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville》里,你展示了很多背景、工作经历和教育经历都不同的优秀投资人的回报,想传达的意思是,关键在于遵循那套理念。

With respect to value investing, in Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville, you featured the returns of many great investors with different backgrounds, work, and education, with the lesson being following the philosophy is the key.

那在今天,要想成功,是不是最终还是回到《The Intelligent Investor》第八章?

To be successful today, does it still just fall back to Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor?

还有,你怎么看 CFA、CFP 之类的项目和资格认证?它们号称标准很高,但又非常深地扎根于学院体系。

And what do you think of programs and designations such as CFA, CFP, etc., which purport high standards yet are rooted heavily in academia?

另外,我想邀请你明天跟我打一轮 bridge。

And I'd like to challenge you to a round of bridge tomorrow.
M2
M20:48

我上过三所商学院,在每一所里面,我都遇到过一两位老师。

I went to 3 business schools and at each, I found a teacher or two.

其中有一所我是专门为了某一位老师去的,但在每一所学校里,我都遇到过一两位让我收获特别大的老师。

I went to one specifically to get a given teacher, but at each one of them, I found a teacher or two that I really got a lot out of.

所以我们根本不是反对商学院。

So we're not anti-business school here at all.

不过我们确实认为,比如说,在三十年前,或者四十年前,学界那帮权威人物在 efficient market theory 以及诸如此类的问题上,在我们看来,偏离真实的投资世界偏得相当远。

We do think that the priesthood, say, 30 years ago, for example, in terms of—or 40 years ago, in terms of efficient market theory and everything, they strayed pretty far, in our view, from the reality of investing.

如果让我招人,比方说候选人一边是排名第一、第二或第三的商学院里前五名毕业生,另一边是一个很聪明,而且对《The Intelligent Investor》第八章完全——那一章对他来说就是非常自然的人,

And I would rather have a person—if I could hire somebody among the top 5 graduates of number 1, 2, or 3 of the business schools, and my choice was somebody that was bright but had Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor absolutely—it just was natural to them.

也就是说,他骨子里就有那个东西。

They had it in their bones, basically.

那我会选那个“第八章”出来的人。

I'd take the person from Chapter 8.

我们做的事情并不复杂。

This is not—what we do is not a complicated business.

这必须是一门讲纪律的事情,但它不需要特别高的 IQ,也不需要类似那种东西。

It's got to be a disciplined business, but it does not require a super high IQ or anything of the sort.

这里面有少数几个基础原则是极其重要的,而且你确实得懂 accounting。

And there are a few fundamentals that are incredibly important, and you do have to understand accounting.

还有,在某些行业里,出去和消费者聊一聊、开始在很多方面像消费者那样思考,这些也都有帮助。

And it helps to get out and talk to consumers and start thinking like a consumer in many ways in certain industries and all of that.

但它就是不需要多么高深的学问。

But it just doesn't require advanced learning.

而且说真的,你知道,我当年其实都不想上大学,所以我也不知道,如果我高中毕业就直接不读了,然后去读我后来读的那些书之类的,我会不会做得更好,还是更差。

And I certainly, you know, I didn't want to go to college, so I don't know whether I would've done better or worse if I'd just quit after high school, you know, and read the books I read and all of that.

我觉得,如果你碰到几位很棒的老师,他们真的在某种程度上改变了你看世界的方式,那你就很幸运;而这样的人,你在 academia 里能遇到,在日常生活里也能遇到。

I think that if you run into a few great teachers and they really change the way you see the world to some degree, you know, you're lucky and you can find them in academia, and you can find them in ordinary life.

而我自己在拥有这些优秀老师这件事上,真的是特别幸运,其中也包括 Charlie。

And I've been extraordinarily lucky in having great teachers, including Charlie.

我是说,Charlie 一直都是一位很了不起的老师。

I mean, Charlie's been a wonderful teacher.

而且你知道,不管在什么地方,只要你能找到一个人,他能让你对以前不明白的事情产生洞见,也许还能让你成为一个比原来更好的人,那都是非常幸运的,你要尽量把这种机会用到最好。

And, you know, any place you can find somebody that gives you insights into things you didn't understand before, maybe makes you a better person than you would've been before, you know, that's very lucky, and you wanna make the most of it.

如果你能在 academia 里找到,那就好好珍惜,充分利用。

If you can find it in academia, make the most of it.

如果你能在生活的其他地方找到,也一样要好好珍惜,充分利用。

And if you can find it in the rest of your life, make the most of it.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M34:05

嗯,你当年找到 Ben Graham 的时候,他很不按常规出牌,而且非常聪明。

Well, when you found Ben Graham, he was unconventional and he was very smart.

当然,这对你就很有吸引力。

And of course, that was very attractive to you.

然后等你发现这套东西真能行,而且你只要坐着不动都能赚很多钱,那你当然立刻就信了。

And then when you found out it worked and you could make a lot of money by sitting on your ass, of course, you were an instant convert.
M2
M24:23

所以说,实际上这个理念到现在还是很吸引我。

And so it still appeals to me, actually.

我的意思是——

I mean—.
M3
M34:30

但是世界已经变了。

But the world changed.

Bill Graham 去世之前——我是说,Ben Graham 已经意识到,他那种寻找被低估公司的具体方法,并不一定在任何时代、任何条件下都管用。

Before he died, Bill Graham— I mean, Ben Graham recognized that the exact way he sought undervalued companies wouldn't necessarily work for all times under all conditions.

而这也的确就是我们后来走过的路。

And that's certainly the way it worked for us.

我们慢慢地转变成,去买那些被低估的优质公司,而不是去买那些被低估的烂公司。

We gradually morphed into trying to buy the better companies when they were underpriced instead of the lousy companies when they were underpriced.

当然,这个做法对我们来说效果相当不错。

And of course, that worked pretty well for us.

而 Ben Graham 呢,他活得够久,亲眼看到自己大部分时候一直在玩的那套游戏,已经过时了。

And Ben Graham, he outlived the game that he played personally most of the time.

他活着看到那一套东西大部分都慢慢消失了。

He lived to see most of it fade away.

我的意思是说,光是去找一家公司的股价只有它营运资本三分之一,然后判断它很容易被清算,而且每一块钱的市场价格最后能分回来三块钱。

I mean, just to find some company that's selling for 1/3 of its working capital and figure out it could easily be liquidated and distribute $3 for every dollar of market price.

你要是现在还能在市场上找到这种机会,那真算你运气好了。

Lots of luck if you can find those in the present markets.

就算你能找到,它们规模也小得很,Berkshire 反正也根本用不上。

And if you can find them, they're so small that Berkshire wouldn't find them of any use anyway.

所以我们只能学另一种玩法。

So we've had to learn a different game.

这对在场所有年轻人来说,都是个教训。

And that's a lesson for all the young people in the room.

如果你想活得久,就得不断学习。

If you're going to live a long time, you have to keep learning.
M1
M15:36

对。

Yeah.
M3
M35:37

你以前知道的那些东西,永远都不够。

What you formerly knew is never enough.

所以如果你不学会不断修正自己之前的结论,得出更好的结论,

So if you don't learn to constantly revise your earlier conclusions and get better ones.

所以我总爱用同一个比喻。

So I always use the same metaphor.

那你就像一个独腿的人,跑去参加踢屁股比赛。

You're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.
M2
M25:58

对。

Yeah.

如果谁对这个比喻有更好的建议,发给我。

If anybody has suggestions for another metaphor, send them to me.

顺便说一句,关于 Graham,有一点很重要:Graham 这套方法是没法放大规模的。

Graham, incidentally, one point, important point, Graham was not scalable.

我的意思是,你没法拿特别大的钱去这么做。

I mean, you could not do it with really big money.

我在 Graham-Newman Corp. 工作的时候,Ben Graham 已经是所有分析师里的泰斗了,而且你知道,在那个年代,他的智识水平几乎高过周围所有人。

And when I worked for Graham-Newman Corp., here he was, the dean of all analysts, and, you know, he was an intellect above all others around that time.

但我们的投资基金只有六百万美元,而那个和投资公司配套运作的 partnership,里面也大概只有六百万美元。

But our investment fund was $6 million, and the partnership that worked in tandem with the investment company also had about $6 million in it.

所以我们总共只有一千两百万美元,

So we had $12 million

是我们当时能运作的资金。

we were working with.

现在你当然可以把通胀之类的因素都折算进去,但那依然只是一笔很小的钱。

Now you can make adjustments for inflation and everything, but it was just a tiny amount.

它本质上是没法规模化的。

It wasn't really scalable.

事实是,Graham 根本不在乎,因为他真的对替自己赚很多钱没什么兴趣。

And the truth is, Graham didn't care because he really wasn't interested in making a lot of money for himself.

所以,他也没有理由想去找那种能一直持续增长、变得越来越大的东西。

So he had no reason to want to find something that could go on and on and become larger and larger.

所以,Chapter 8 从把股票当成一门生意来看,它的价值非常非常大。

And so the utility of Chapter 8 in terms of looking at stocks as a business is of enormous value.

Chapter 20 里讲安全边际,它的价值也非常大,不过那不是什么复杂的东西。

The utility of Chapter 20 about a margin of safety is of enormous value, but that's not complicated stuff.
M3
M37:24

我后来终于想明白了,为什么教 corporate finance 的老师经常会教很多不对的东西。

I finally figured out why the teachers of corporate finance often teach a lot of stuff that's wrong.

我很年轻的时候,眼睛出过一些问题,我去找过一位非常有名的眼科医生。

When I had some eye troubles very early in life, I consulted a very famous eye doctor.

然后我发现,他那家诊所做的白内障手术,已经是彻底过时的了。

And I realized that his place of business was doing a totally obsolete cataract operation.

明明更好的手术方法早就发明出来了,他们还在拿刀切。

They were still cutting with a knife after better procedures had been invented.

我就说,你在这么好的医学院里,为什么还在做这种完全过时的手术?

And I said, why are you in a great medical school performing absolutely obsolete operations?

他说,Charlie,这种手术拿来教学实在太好了。

He said, Charlie, it's such a wonderful operation to teach.

嗯,corporate finance 里也是这么回事。

Well, that's what happens in corporate finance.

他们弄出这些公式,然后这就成了一种很不错的教学体验。

They get these formulas and it's a fine teaching experience.

你给学生一个公式,提出一个问题,他们再用这个公式去解。

You give them a formula, you present the problem, they use the formula.

这会让人真切地觉得,自己在做很有价值的事。

It's— you get a real feeling of worthwhile activity.

唯一的问题就是,这些全都是胡扯。

There's only one trouble, it's all balderdash.
M2
M28:25

对,所以你只要听到有人把一种理论形容成很优雅,就得小心了。

Yeah, whenever you hear a theory described as elegant, watch out.

你知道吧,对吧?

You know, right?

好,Andrew。

Okay, Andrew.