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1994年股东大会 · 巴菲特对投资烟草业的看法

8 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 1:14
M1
M10:01

考虑到 tobacco 行业现在正受到这么严格的审视,第一,你觉得这些巨大的现金奶牛型企业,未来的经营前景怎么样?第二,考虑到它们要承担的 liability,在什么情况下它们会对你有吸引力吗?

Given the scrutiny that the tobacco business is going under right now, number one, what do you see as the business prospects for those huge cash cows, and at any point would that be attractive to you, given their liability?
M2
M20:14

这个问题是关于 tobacco 行业的未来吗?

The question is about the future of the tobacco business?

这个嘛,我大概也不比你知道得更多,因为这里面充满了各种问题,都跟社会态度有关。你在这方面形成判断,未必会比我差。不过就我个人来说,我不愿意让自己净资产里相当大的一部分放在 tobacco 行业里。当然,它们的未来也可能会比我现在设想的更好。

I don't, I probably know no more about that than you do, because it's fraught with questions that relate to societal attitudes, and you can form an opinion on that just as well as I could, but I would not like to have a significant percentage of my net worth in the tobacco business myself, but they may have better futures than I envision.

我并不觉得自己在这方面有什么特别独到的见解。

I don't really think that I have special insights on that.

我觉得你有。

I think you do.

Charlie,你—— 不。

Charlie, you— No.

你必须得对 society 会想怎么对待这个行业得出一个判断—— 还有现任政府在这件事上的态度也是一样。

You have to come to a conclusion as to how society is going to want to treat— and the present administration, for that matter.

这个行业的经济效益也许没问题,但那并不代表它就有很好的未来。

And the economics of the business may be fine, but that doesn't mean it has a great future.