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2001年股东大会 · BRK旗下公司出售垃圾食品,巴菲特怎么看?

45 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:43
M1
M10:01

我叫 Joseph LaPree。

My name is Joseph LaPree.

我来自 Minnesota 的 Minneapolis。

I am from Minneapolis, Minnesota.

近几年,tobacco 公司因为营销那些不健康、但属于个人可选择消费的产品,被迫支付了巨额赔偿。

In recent years, tobacco companies have been compelled to pay large damages for marketing their unhealthy but discretionary products.

我的问题分两部分。

My question has 2 parts.

第一,类似这种损害赔偿责任的可能性,会不会降低 Coca-Cola、See's Candies、Dairy Queen,或者其他销售这类健康性存疑、但属于可选择消费产品的企业的内在价值?

First, does the potential for similar damage liabilities reduce the intrinsic value of Coca-Cola, See's Candies, Dairy Queen, or any other business which sells discretionary products of questionable healthfulness?

倒不是说我不喜欢这些产品。

Not that I don't like these products.

第二,你们二位会不会担心,“caveat emptor”这个原则可能被逐渐削弱,从而动摇合同法整体的法律基础?

And second, are either of you concerned that a possible erosion in the principle of caveat emptor is undermining the legal basis of contracts in general.

谢谢你们回答我的问题。

Thank you for taking my question.
M2
M20:58

嗯,你说的这些产品,我已经吃了七十年了。

Well, the products you described, I've been living on for 70 years.

所以他们大概会把我请去当证人,证明这些东西没多大危害。

So they'll probably haul me in as a witness that they don't do much damage.

不是,我觉得吧,如果你反对糖,而且我想普通人一年大概会吃进去五百五十磅左右的干重食物,其中大概有一百二十五磅上下——这个我得查一下——是各种形式的糖。

No, I think if, you know, if you're opposed to sugar, and I think the average human being eats something like 550 pounds dry weight of food a year, and I think 125 pounds or thereabouts— I'd have to look it up— consists of sugar in one form or another.

我的意思是,几乎你吃的每一种产品里都有糖,当然 Coca-Cola 里有,See's Candy 里也有,但几乎什么东西里都有——我是说,美国人摄入的东西里,超过百分之二十都是以这样那样的形式来的糖。

I mean, it's in practically every product that you have, and it happens to be in Coca-Cola, it happens to be in See's Candy, but it's in practically everything you're— I mean, it's over 20% of what Americans are consuming one way or another.

而且你看,美国人的平均寿命还在不断上升,所以我完全不担心这些公司会因为产品责任出什么大问题。

And, you know, the average lifespan of Americans keeps going up, so I would not be worried at all about product liability in connection with those companies.

不过从整体上说,产品责任这个领域,确实是原告律师大有可为的一片沃土。

But product liability generally is an area that is a fertile field for the plaintiffs' bar.

而且我们在买入企业的时候,确实会注意这一点;有些企业我们放弃了,就是因为担心它的产品责任风险。

And it's— we are conscious in buying into businesses, and we have passed up some businesses because we were worried about the product liability potential.

除非立法上有某种解决方案,否则我觉得你会看到,GDP 里会有越来越多的一部分流向责任赔偿。

Unless there is some legislative solution, I think you will see more and more of the GDP going into liability awards.

至于立法会不会有什么改变,我不知道。

And whether there will be any change by legislation, I don't know.

但这个领域,你知道,规模很大。

But it's, you know, it's a big field.

而且它像买彩票一样的那一面,吸引力太大了,因为——

And the lottery ticket aspect of it is so attractive because—
M1
M12:39

对。

Yeah.
M2
M22:40

如果一个律师愿意拿出不多的时间,甚至哪怕是相当一部分时间去赌一把,而潜在回报可能是 一千万、两千万,甚至有些案子里是好几亿美元,你知道,这就是一张挺不错的彩票。

If an attorney can gamble a modest amount of time or even a reasonable amount of time and have a potential payoff of $10 or $20 or maybe in some cases hundreds of millions of dollars, you know, that's a decent lottery ticket.

谁知道陪审团里会是哪十二个人呢?

Who knows what 12 people, you know, are gonna be on the jury?

我有个当律师的朋友说过一句话,他说 Lincoln 说过,你可以在某些时候骗过所有人,也可以一直骗过某些人,

As one of my friends who's a lawyer said, you know, he said Lincoln said, you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all the time,

也可以在某些时候骗过所有人,但你不可能一直骗过所有人。

and all of the people some of the time, but not all of them all the time.

他说,我只是在找那十二个你可以一直骗下去的人。

He says, I'm just looking for 12 that you can fool all of the time.

你知道,你要做的无非就是先拿到一个裁决。

You know, and all you have to do is get an award.

而在一个很多个零对人们来说都已经有点失去意义的国家里,这种胜算其实还相当不错。

And the odds are fairly favorable in a nation where lots of zeros have sort of lost meaning to people.

所以,对我们进入任何一门生意来说,在评估产品责任这件事上,这都是一个非常现实的顾虑。

So it's a very real concern in any business we get into in terms of trying to evaluate product liability.
F1
F13:31

没错。

Sure.
M2
M23:34

Charlie?

Charlie?
F1
F13:34

特别有害的一点是,原告方那种按胜诉分成收费的律师群体,政治影响力越来越大了。

What's particularly pernicious is the increasing political power of the plaintiffs' contingency fee bar.

如果你是在州最高法院任职,在大多数地方,基本上就是终身的——至少如果你自己想一直待下去,那就是终身。

If you're on a state Supreme Court, in most places you're on for life, if you— at least you're on for life if you want to stay for life.

唯一可能让你离开法院的一件事,就是你真的惹恼了某个重要群体。我觉得这在很大程度上助长了法院里很多滥用行为。

The one thing that could get you off the court would be to really irritate some important group, and I think that greatly helps a lot of abusive conduct in the courts.

我觉得这个国家的法官,对于伪科学、站不住脚的经济学证词,还有那些很差劲的律师,远远没有他们该有的那么强硬。

I think the judges of the country haven't been nearly as tough as they should be on junk science, junk economic testimony, trashy lawyers.

而且我看不出——而且我看不出有什么明显迹象表明情况在变好。

And I don't see— And I don't see many signs that it's getting better.

在 Texas,他们确实把 Texas 最高法院改善了一些,而那地方也确实很需要整顿。

In Texas, they actually improved the Supreme Court of Texas, which really needed it.

所以,还是偶尔能看到一点点希望的亮光。

So there are occasional glimmers of light.
M2
M24:49

我们在保险业务上,还有在收购企业的时候,做决策都会带着一种非常悲观的态度,认为 Charlie 刚才说的那种弊病,哪怕只是得到一点遏制,可能性都很小。

We make our decisions in insurance and in buying businesses with a very pessimistic attitude toward the chances of that particular ill that Charlie described being even moderated.

我的意思是,我们会推演认为这个趋势还会加速,但这就是我们一贯的做法——在决策里预先留出安全边际。

I mean, we think it— we would project out that the trend would accelerate, but that's just our natural way of— building in a margin of safety in decisions.

不用担心吃 See's Candy、Dairy Queen 或者 Coke。

Don't worry about eating the See's Candy or the Dairy Queen or the Coke.

我呢,你知道,要是你报纸看得够久,就会知道我盐吃得很多。

I, you know, if you read the papers long enough, I use a lot of salt.

而且你知道,我一直都被人警告这个事。

And, you know, I was always being warned about that.

然后呢,你知道,几年前他们又开始说,你知道,盐还吃得不够之类的。

And then, you know, a few years ago, they started saying, you know, you can't get enough salt and all that.

我也不知道答案到底是什么,但我感觉棒极了。

I don't know what the answer is, but I feel terrific.

Zone 7。

Zone 7.