M20:47
对，我们不想太详细谈我们那些可交易投资，不过我会说，就我们的看法而言，Moody's 的护城河，比起那家 operating company，要宽得多、深得多，而且里面还布满了更多带毒的角色。
Yeah, we don't want to go into too much detail about our marketable investments, but I would say that the moat is, just in our view, is far wider, deeper, and infested with far more poisonous characters in the case of Moody's than in the case of the operating company.
如果你自己在做决策时有过这类经验——比如说，在那家 operating company 的业务里，你要怎么获取信用信息；或者你想给证券拿到评级之类——我想你会得出结论：Moody's 的 franchise 比那家 operating company 强得多。
If you've had experience just in terms of making decisions about how you either obtain credit information in the case of the operating company, or if you want to obtain ratings on securities or something, I think you'd conclude that Moody's is a much stronger franchise than the operating company.
这并不代表那家 operating company 最终不会变成一家更好的企业。
It doesn't mean the operating company can't turn out to be a better business.
在某些情况下，它的上行空间也可能更大。
It might have more upside under certain circumstances, too.
但是如果你真的在想，出了问题最糟会发生什么，那我觉得你会认为，Moody's 的 franchise 明显比那家 operating company 更强。
But if you're really thinking of, you know, what bad can happen to you, I think that you would regard Moody's as a considerably stronger franchise than the operating company.
Charlie？
Charlie?
嗯，我当然同意。
Well, I'd certainly agree.
Moody's 有点像 Harvard。
Moody's is a little like Harvard.
它是一种自我实现的预言。
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
呃，你知道，我都不敢想，现在就算你把 Harvard 管得多糟，结果大概还是会相当不错。
Uh, you know, I hate to think of how much you could mismanage Harvard now and still have it work out pretty well.
如果你把 Harvard Business School 的学费每年降一万美元，那需求很可能不是上升，反而会更少。
If you cut the price of the admission to the Harvard Business School by $10,000 a year, you would have less demand in all probability than an increase in demand.
我的意思是，在这一点上它完全违反直觉，因为拿这个例子来说，学校的声望不光会被进一步强化，几乎还会让它必须把价格定在最高的一档。
I mean, it's totally counterintuitive in that respect because the cachet of the school, for example, in that case is not only reinforced, it almost makes it necessary that it be priced toward the top.
所以，对这种东西，你在 Economics 101 里学的供需曲线可以直接扔到一边去。
So you can throw away the demand and supply curves that they teach you in Economics 101 on something like that.
我去商学院的时候，经常会开点小玩笑，因为我会问他们，你们说，什么才叫一家了不起的企业，然后大家就会把这些东西都讨论一遍。
I frequently have a little fun when I attend business schools because I ask them, you know, what the definition of a wonderful business is, and we go through all this stuff.
然后我就会说，你知道，在我见过的企业里，最好的生意其实是 Harvard Business School 或者 Stanford Business School，因为它们价格涨得越高，越多人想进去，大家也越觉得这个产品更值钱。
And then I say, you know, I tell them that really the best business I've seen is that, you know, is the Harvard Business School or the Stanford Business School, because the more they increase the price, the more people want to get in, and the more people think the product is worth.
那真是一个绝佳的位置。
And that is a marvelous position to be in.
还有，也谢谢你刚才的评论，关于那个——你知道，我很幸运，曾在 Columbia 遇到 Ben Graham 这样一位非常非常好的老师。
And I thank you for your comments on, on the— you know, I, I was lucky enough to have a great, great teacher in Ben Graham at Columbia.
Ben 其实完全没必要每周四下午专门跑到 Columbia，来给我们这帮人上课。
And Ben didn't need to go up to Columbia once a week on Thursday afternoon to talk to a bunch of us.
所以，你知道，我真的觉得——我也很享受把这些东西继续传递下去。
So, you know, I really feel it's— that I enjoy sort of passing that along.
我在这个领域其实没有任何原创性的想法，不过，你知道，我有一位了不起的老师，和学生聊天也很有意思。
I haven't had any original ideas in this field at all, but I, you know, I had a terrific teacher, and it's fun to talk to students.
你要是跟一群我这个年纪的人讲话，什么都不会发生。
If you talk to a bunch of guys my age, nothing happens.
我的意思是，他们就是想被逗乐。
I mean, they just want to be entertained.
而且他们总是想听预测之类的东西。
But they want predictions always and that sort of thing.
所以这些事我一概不做。
So I don't do any of that at all.
我还是更愿意跟学生聊，也谢谢你们过来。
I'd rather talk to students, and I thank you for coming.
我们来看第三个问题。
Let's go to number 3.