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2003年股东大会 · 巴菲特评价BRK旗下公司Netjets的巨额亏损

61 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 6:24
M1
M10:00

大家早上好。

Good morning.

我是来自 North Carolina 州 Durham 的 George Brumley。

I'm George Brumley from Durham, North Carolina.

我的第一个问题和 Executive Jet 有关。

My first question is related to Executive Jet.

距离收购 Executive Jet 已经快五年了,而当时收购时的经济环境和地缘政治环境,跟现在很不一样。

It's, it's been almost 5 years since the acquisition of Executive Jet, a purchase in a much different economic and geopolitical environment.

在这样一个变化很大的行业里,你们是用哪些业务指标来衡量成功的?另外,从收购到现在,这些指标发生了什么变化?

What business metrics do you use to measure success in an industry with as much flux as this one, and what has changed in those metrics since the time of acquisition?

Europe 的前景怎么样?这些前景有没有发生变化?

What are the prospects for Europe, and have those prospects changed?

虽然在规模和业务覆盖范围上,没有哪家竞争对手能接近 Executive Jet,但他们对竞争环境造成了什么影响?

While none of the competitors approach Executive Jet in terms of scale and scope, what impact are they having on the competitive environment?

最后,能不能请你解释一下这个商业模式的长期特点?尤其是当很多喷气式飞机逐渐因为机龄原因退出这个项目的时候。

And lastly, would you please explain the long-term aspect of the business model as many of the jets age out of the program?
M2
M20:46

好,George,我上大学时回答的问题都没这么多。不过,呃,George 的叔叔是我婚礼上的伴郎,所以他想问多少都行。

Okay, George, I got through college answering fewer questions than that, but, uh, George's uncle was best man at my wedding, so he gets all he wants.

NetJets,你们会看到,第一季度出现了相当大的亏损。

NetJets, as you will see, in the first quarter had a significant loss.

这笔亏损里有很大一部分,是因为飞机发生了减记,因为它们——这个说法我可太喜欢了。

A large portion of that loss was caused by the write-down of planes because they're— I love it.

他们在这个行业里,管它们叫 pre-owned planes。

They call it in the trade, they call them pre-owned planes.

我管它们叫 used planes。

I call them used planes.

不过他们在 manufactured homes 这个行业里也是这么干的,所以他们会说 pre-owned homes,而不说 used homes。

But they do the same thing in manufactured homes, so they call them pre-owned homes instead of used homes.

不过不管怎么说,先把这些委婉说法放一边,used plane 市场——嗯,准确说,商务飞机市场现在很疲软。

But in any event, putting aside the euphemisms, the used plane market— well, the business aircraft market is very soft.

used plane 市场上待售的飞机数量,远远多于比如三年、四年或者五年前。

The used plane market has— has far more planes for sale than, say, 3 or 4 or 5 years ago.

这会影响新飞机的生产,而且其实已经产生影响了。

That's going to affect the production of new planes, already has.

这也会影响二手飞机的定价。

And it affects pricing in used planes.

而且,我们也从那些退出项目的人手里回购飞机,这一直是我们会做、也会继续做的事。

And we have bought back planes from people leaving the programs, which we do and will continue to do.

但我们是在一个下行市场里回购了其中一些飞机,所以跟这些飞机相关,我们也做了减记。

But we have bought during a declining market some of those, and we have had write-downs in connection with those planes.

飞机。

Planes.

你们会在我们第一季度报告里看到,我想那大概是我们唯一一个在亏钱的业务。

And you will see in our first quarter report, I believe that that's probably the only operation we have that's losing money.

不过我们这个产品很受欢迎。

And we have— it's a popular product.

这是一个在增长的业务。

It's a growing business.

我认为,随着时间推移,它会变成一个非常大的业务。

It's going to be a very big business, in my opinion, over the years.

而且我们每天都能看到这一点。

And we see it every day.

我是说,我们签下了很多业务。

I mean, we write a lot of business.

而且客户也在不断加入我们。

And customers are joining us.

主要有三家竞争对手。

There are 3 main competitors.

我觉得可以这么说,他们在经营层面都亏了不少钱,先不算他们自己库存可能还要做的那些减值。

I think it's fair to say that they're losing significant money from operations, forgetting about any markdowns they might have on their own inventories.

我们的市场份额——我们会从 FAA 那里拿到一些数据,比如飞机注册情况,还有哪些人在出售他们的飞机。我们的市场份额本来一直就是最大的,而在过去这几年里又大幅上升了。

Our market share— we get figures from the FAA as to registrations and as to people that are selling their planes, and our share of market which was always the largest, has gone up dramatically in the last couple of years.

按飞机价值来算,已经上升到大概百分之七十五。

It's gone up to roughly 75% in terms of value of planes.

而且我们说的是,在这四家公司构成的市场里占了百分之七十五。

And we're talking 75% of the 4-company market.

如果按净飞机数量来算,这个比例还要更高。

It's gone up even higher than that in terms of net planes.

也就是说,新卖出的飞机,减去回流回来的飞机。

In other words, new planes sold, less planes coming back.

但是价格——我们现在拿到的定价并没有——如果是在美国,撇开这一次减记不算,本来应该只是非常非常微利。

But the price— The pricing we are receiving does not— in the U.S., it would be, absent this one write-down, it would be very, very modestly profitable.

在欧洲,我们已经亏了很多钱,而且现在还在持续亏很多钱。

In Europe, we have lost and we are losing significant amounts of money.

欧洲的公务机,总量大概只有——我说的不是我们的,我说的是整个市场。

Business jets in Europe, the total is about one— and I'm not talking about ours, I'm talking about all.
M1
M13:55

对。

Yeah.
M2
M23:56

大概只有美国的十分之一左右,尽管人口规模差不多。

About roughly 1/10 the number as in the United States, even though the population is similar.

所以我们是在一个很小的基数上,在那边增长得非常快。

So we have grown from a small base quite rapidly over there.

不会有别人来正面跟我们打。

Nobody else will be taking us on.

我认为,这是一个服务的一部分,而这种服务未来很多年里会在全球变成一门非常大的生意。

It's part of a service that will be part of a very big business worldwide, in my view, over the years.

我觉得不会再有别人能在我们之后进来跟我们竞争。

I don't think anybody else can come in after us.

所以我认为这是不可分割的一部分。

So I think it's integral.

而且它对我们的运营来说也是不可分割的。

And it is integral to our operation.

在欧洲,飞行里程大约有一半是来自美国的机主,而且未来这些年这个数字只会越来越大,因为我们的机主数量——我们每个月的机主数量都在增长,而且增长得很明显。

Half the— roughly half the miles flown in Europe arise from American owners, and that will just do nothing but get bigger over the years because our number of owners— every month our number of owners goes up, goes up significantly.

我们这里有来自 Marquis 的人,他们基本上——他们已经成了我们的客户,然后再转售卡。

We have people here from Marquis who have essentially— they've become a customer of ours, and then they resell cards.

每张卡是二十五个小时,而最近这几个月,他们每个月都新增四十到五十个客户。

For 25 hours, and they have added 40 or 50 customers a month in recent months.

所以这是一个很受欢迎的服务。

So it's a popular service.

它会变成一门大得多的生意。

It will be a much bigger business.

我觉得某个时候会出现一轮洗牌,也许还会来得相当快。

I think there will be a shakeout at some point, and maybe fairly soon.

你们可以去看看 Raytheon 的招股说明书,或者 Raytheon 的 10-K,你会发现一些关于他们业务的有意思的信息。

You can look at the Raytheon prospectus and— or the Raytheon 10-K, and you will find some interesting information about their operation.

而且你们——不难看出到底发生了什么。

And you can— it's not hard to figure out what's going on.

我不知道这轮洗牌具体什么时候会发生,但我可以向你们保证,我们不会是被洗出去的那一家。

I don't know the answer as to when the shakeout will occur, but I can assure you that we will not be one of the shook out.

Charlie,你想评论一下吗?

Charlie, do you want to comment on it?
M1
M15:34

不。

No.
M2
M25:37

他会评论那些赚钱的业务。

He'll comment on the profitable operations.

他把这个留给我——长期的商业模式基本上是,我们相信,未来若干年后,跟我们飞的人数可能会达到现在的十倍;而凭借最好的服务、最好的记录,以及在安全和安保方面最好的政策,我们会在这个领域保持非常强势的主导地位,而且人们会愿意为这种服务支付合适的价格。

He gives me the one— The long-term business model is that basically we believe that, you know, perhaps 10 times the number of people that are now flying with us will be flying with us some years in the future, that having the best service, the best record, and the best policies for safety and security will leave us very dominant in the field and that people will pay an appropriate price for the service.

而且,而且我们看到了各种各样支持这一点的证据,但在我看来,NetJets 今年还是看不到利润。

And, and we see all kinds of evidence of that, but we do not see a profit this year, in my view, at NetJets.

我们来看第二个。

Let's go to number 2.