M20:30
我想说的是，我们接手 Berkshire 的时候，黄金是每盎司二十美元，Berkshire 的股价是十五美元。
Well, I would say this, that when we took over Berkshire, gold was at $20 and Berkshire was at $15.
现在黄金是每盎司一千六百美元，而 Berkshire 的股价是十二万美元。
So gold is now at $1,600 and Berkshire's at $120,000.
所以，起始时间可以有很多种选法。
So you can pick different starting periods.
显然，如果你选的是某项投资在过去一个月或者一年里大幅上涨的那段时间，那它肯定能超过百分之九十，甚至百分之九十五的其他投资。
Obviously, if you pick anything that's gone up a lot in the last, you know, month or year, I mean, it will beat 90% or 95% of other investments.
但有一件事，我基本上敢拿自己的性命来打赌：从五十年的周期来看，Berkshire 不仅会大幅跑赢黄金，普通股票整体也会跑赢黄金，而且农田可能也会跑赢黄金。
But, uh, the one thing I would bet my life on, essentially, is over a 50-year period, not only will Berkshire do considerably better than gold, but common stocks as a group will do better than gold, and probably farmland will do better than gold.
我的意思是，如果你现在拥有一盎司黄金，然后接下来一百年都把它好好保存着，那么一百年后你手里还是会有一盎司黄金。
I mean, if you own an ounce of gold now and you, you know, you caress it for the next 100 years, you'll have an— you'll have an ounce of gold 100 years from now.
如果你拥有一百英亩农田，一百年后你也仍然会有一百英亩农田，而且这期间一百年都能收获农作物，把它们卖掉，想必还会用这些钱继续买更多农田。
If you own 100 acres of farmland, you'll also have 100 acres of farmland 100 years from now, and you'll have taken the crops for 100 years and sold them and presumably bought more farmland in the process.
一项不产生任何产出的投资，很难在任何一个长期周期里跑赢能持续产生收益的投资。当然，我也知道黄金这件事很有意思。
It's very hard for an unproductive investment to beat productive investments over any long period of time, and I recognize that it's very interesting.
我可以说债券不怎么样，Bernanke 还是会对我笑，你知道吧。
I can say bonds are no good and Bernanke still smiles at me, you know.
我也可以说某只股票不怎么样，大家顶多有点意见。但你要是说黄金一句坏话，那可就会激起人们强烈的情绪。这一点挺有意思的，因为通常来说，如果你是经过理性思考得出结论的，那么别人怎么说，按理不应该对你有多大影响。
And I, I can— or I can say some stock is no good, and people— but if you, if you say anything negative about gold, I mean, it, it, it arouses passions with people, which is, uh, uh, kind of fascinating because usually if you thought through something intellectually, it shouldn't really make much difference what people say.
关键应该是，你掌握的事实对不对，你的推理对不对。
It should be that, well, you know, the question is whether your facts are right and your reasoning is right.
可是，当你遇到那些对黄金特别狂热的人时——我父亲就很喜欢黄金，他为人宽容，也能接受别人和他讨论这个问题——我发现，很多人就是很难理性看待它。
But, uh, but, uh, when you run into people that are really excited about gold— and I came from a family where my dad loved gold, uh, and he was, he was tolerant, he, he, he could take a discussion of it— I find many people have trouble with it.
Charlie，你怎么看？
Charlie?