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2008年股东大会 · 巴菲特当年为何出售中石油股票?

44 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 5:04
M1
M10:00

我叫 Xiao。

My name is Xiao.

我来自中国无锡。

I'm coming from Wuxi, China.

感谢 Buffett 先生和 Munger 先生,对中国和 Olympics 给出了不带偏见的看法。

Thank you, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, for your unbiased opinion on China and Olympics.

为了印证你们的观察,我们带了一批来自中国上市公司的董事长和 CEO 来到 Omaha,想向最优秀的人学习,看看上市公司应该怎么经营。

To support your observation, we have a group of chairmen and CEOs from Chinese public companies to come to Omaha and try to learn from the best of how public companies should be run.

谢谢。

Thank you.

一个简短的问题:我们注意到,你们在 PetroChina 上做了一笔很快的交易,这不像你们平常那种买入并长期持有的投资方式。

Quick question: We observed that you made a quick trade on PetroChina, not a typical buy-and-hold approach you do on investment.

我们的问题是:说到卖出 PetroChina,当时你脑子里在想什么?你又会给这群高管什么建议?

Our question is: When it comes to selling PetroChina, what comes to your mind and what suggestions you may have to this group of executives?

中国有很多积极的力量,我们也欢迎大家来参加 Olympics。

There are positive forces in China and we welcome everyone to Olympics.
M2
M21:09

谢谢。

Thank you.

几个月前,我在这里见过 China Investment Corp. 的 Gao 博士。

And I met Dr. Gao from the China Investment Corp. here a few months ago.

他给我留下了非常深刻的印象。

I was very impressed by him.

当时是在 Omaha 这里和他一起吃午饭。

Lunch with him here in Omaha.

关于 PetroChina 的那个决定,就像当初我们买入它一样:当时它整体估值大概是三百五十亿到四百亿美元,而我们认为它值一千亿美元,那时候油价大概是每桶七十美元,差不多七十五美元;后来我判断,它的价值大概到了两千七百五十亿到三千亿美元,在那个价位我们就可以卖掉了。

The PetroChina decision, just as we made it to buy it at a valuation overall of $35 to $40 billion when we thought it was worth $100 billion, when oil was at $70 a barrel, roughly $75, I figured the value was about $275 or $300 billion, and we could sell it at that price.

而且我们觉得,和其他石油公司相比,它已经不再被低估了,所以我们就把股票卖掉了。

And we no longer felt it was undervalued compared to other oil companies, so we sold our stock.

顺便说一句,就在我们卖掉之后,它的股价又大幅上涨了,因为你们也知道,他们在中国发行了 A-shares,一下子变得非常受欢迎。

Now, incidentally, right after we sold it, it went up dramatically because, as you know, they issued A-shares in China and it became very popular.

有那么一段时间,按市值算,PetroChina 成了全世界最有价值的公司,这要是让七八年前的投资者听到,肯定会觉得非常震惊。

And at one time, PetroChina became the most valuable company in the world measured by market value, which would have come as an enormous surprise to investors 7 or 8 years earlier.

所以他们干得非常出色。

So they've done a terrific job.

如果它跌到一个我们认为相对于其价值有折价、而且是明显折价的价格,我们还会再次买入 PetroChina。

And if it went down to a price that we thought was a discount, significant discount to its valuation, we would buy PetroChina again.
M1
M12:30

这个——

The—
M2
M22:30

至于——我,我不太确定,现在在商业方面,到底是不是他们要向我们学的,比起我们要向中国人学的更多。

In terms of— I, I'm not so sure we don't have a lot to learn from the Chinese in terms of, of, uh, of business currently, more than they have to learn from us.

我——我也不确定,我会希望我们这里的一些做法传到中国去。

I don't— I'm not sure I'd want some of our practices to spread to China.

现在那里发生的一切,说明那是一个了不起的社会。不久前我还去过 Dalian,我记得我从市中心坐车到我们那边的工厂,大概走了四十五分钟,一路上我看到的,真的是近些年发展起来的成百上千家工厂、企业。

It's a remarkable society, what's going on there now, and I did go to Dalian not long ago, and I must have traveled for 45 minutes from the center of town out to our plant there, and I just saw really hundreds of plants, factories that have developed in recent years.
M3
M33:09

这个——

It's—
M2
M23:10

中国的经济——中国人民正在开始意识到自己的潜力。

The economy is— the Chinese people are starting to realize their potential.

我的意思是,归根到底,过去几个世纪里,你们一直都有很多很有能力的人,只是体制没有把他们的潜力释放出来。

I mean, what it amounted to is you had, for centuries, you had people of lots of ability, but a system that did not unleash their potential.

而现在,这种潜力开始被释放了,这也就是为什么你们的人均 GDP 会有非常可观的增长,而且我觉得这种趋势还会继续。

And now it's starting to be unleashed, and that's why you're getting very substantial GDP growth per capita, and I think it'll continue.

我会建议你们看看 American industry 里那些你们认为最好的做法,然后照着学。

I would just look for the best practices in American industry as you see them and copy 'em.

至于其他的,我会把它们丢掉。

And I would, I would discard the rest.

而且我觉得,你知道,这其实就是你学习人类行为的方式。

And I, I think it's, you know, it's, it's, it's how you learn about human behavior.

你会去尝试——如果你看到一个很有效率、很有成效的人,你就会试着弄明白,他们为什么会这么有效。

You try to— if you look at an effective individual, you try to figure out why they're effective.

你知道,为什么 Don Keough,或者为什么 Tom Murphy,他们会这么有效率、这么厉害?

You know, why is Don Keough, or why are Tom Murphy, why are they so effective?

为什么大家都想待在他们身边?

Why do people want to be around them?

为什么他们是领导者?

Why are they leaders?

为什么大家都喜欢他们?

Why do people love them?

你会看到某些人性的特质,而这些特质你应该去模仿。

And you see certain human qualities and you should copy those qualities.

然后,当你看到有些家伙按理说什么条件都占尽了,可镇上每个人都讨厌他,你就得确保自己别有那些特质。

And when you see some guy that should have everything going for him and everybody in town hates him, you know, you want to make sure you don't have any of those qualities.

嗯,换到看这个国家里的企业这件事上,我也会做同样的事,去看我欣赏什么,然后去效仿它;同时一定要——要非常非常努力,不要让那些你在别处看到、让你反感的东西,慢慢混进你自己的体系里。

Well, I would do the same thing in terms of looking at businesses in this country and try and look for what I admire and emulate it and make sure that—try, try very hard not to let the things that you find over here that are distasteful to you creep into your own system.
M3
M34:27

Charlie?

Charlie?

嗯,我希望你回中国以后,能告诉他们,你至少见到了一个人,是真心赞同 Confucian 对年长男性尊崇这种强调的。

Well, I hope you'll go back to China and tell them that you met at least one fellow that really approves the Confucian emphasis on reverence for elderly males.
M2
M24:50

我觉得你应该把女性也包括进去,这样你就能给自己找补回来了,Charlie。

I think you should dig yourself out of that by including females too, Charlie.
M3
M34:53

那可不是 Confucius 的主意。

That wasn't Confucius's idea.
M2
M24:56

哦,好吧。

Oh, okay.

不过也没理由不能改一改。

No reason why you can't modify it.

好,我们再来最后一个。

Okay, we'll have one more.