← 返回任务列表

2012年股东大会 · 靠看财经头条新闻,是做不好投资的

38 段 · 2 位说话人 · 原片 3:12
F1
F10:00

系统性的恐慌风险,或者说对系统性风险的担忧,曾经让你在急着买股票的时候停下来过吗?

Have systemic fear risks or systemic risk fears ever caused you to pause in your eagerness to buy equities?

你看,回到二零零八、二零零九年那时候,你当时为什么没有更激进一点呢?

You know, back in 2008, 2009, you know, were you— why weren't you more aggressive back then?
M1
M10:11

对,你大概会觉得这个挺有意思。

Yeah, you'll probably find this interesting.

按我的记忆,我和 Charlie 这五十三年来,好像从来没有在讨论买入一只股票、一个企业,或者卖出一只股票、一个企业的时候,聊过宏观层面的事情。

Charlie and I, to my memory, in 53 years, I don't think we've ever had a discussion about buying a stock or a business or selling a stock or a business that has been where we've talked about macro affairs.

我的意思是,只要我们发现一家企业是我们自认为看得懂的,而且它给出来的价格我们也喜欢,我们就买。

I mean, if we find a business that we think we understand and we like the price at which it's being offered, we buy it.

外面的头条写什么,根本没区别。

And it doesn't make any difference what the headlines are.

Federal Reserve 在做什么,也根本没区别。

It doesn't make any difference what the Federal Reserve is doing.

Europe 那边发生什么,也根本没区别。

It doesn't make any difference what's going on in Europe.

我们就买。

We buy it.

你知道,外面永远都会有好消息和坏消息,哪一种被强调得更多,取决于人们的情绪,或者报纸编辑的情绪,或者别的什么人。

You know, there's always going to be good and bad news out there, and which gets emphasized the most depends on the moods of people or newspaper editors or whomever.

而且,你知道,坏消息真的是一大堆。

And there's, you know, there's a ton of bad.

我第一次买股票,是在一九四二年六月,呃,就是一九四二年六月。

I bought my first stock, you know, in, in, in, uh, in June of, in, in June of '42.

然后,呃,你知道当时发生了什么吗?

And, uh, uh, you know what had happened?

你知道,在 Midway 战役之前,我们一直是在打败仗。

You know, we were losing the war, you know, until the Battle of Midway.

我的意思是——当时这个国家,所有——你知道,我那些年纪比我大的朋友都去了战场,都消失了。

I mean, it— So here was a country that every— you know, all my older friends had gone, you know, disappeared.

我们根本不会去生产人们真正想要的各种商品。

We weren't going to make any kinds of goods that people wanted.

我们要造战舰,造那些会被扔进海里的东西,而且我们当时还在输。

We were going to build battleships and things to drop in the sea, and we were losing, you know.

但是股票很便宜。

But stocks were cheap.

我在二零零八年十月在 Times 上写了那篇文章。

And I wrote that article in October of 2008 in the Times.

其实我应该晚几个月再写,不过归根到底,我当时说的是,我们刚经历了一场金融恐慌,这会蔓延到整个经济里去,而且,你知道,你会看到各种各样的坏消息,但那又怎么样呢?

I should have written it a few months later, but in the end, I said, we've just had a financial panic, and it's going to flow over into the economy, and, you know, you're going to read all kinds of bad news, but so what?

你知道,America 不会消失,而股票很便宜。

You know, America's not going to go away, and stocks are cheap.

你得——我们看的是价值,根本不看头条新闻。

You got to— we look to value, and we don't look to headlines at all.

而且我们真的不——大家都以为我们整天坐在那儿讨论宏观因素。

And we really don't— everybody thinks that we sit around and talk about macro factors.

我们根本不会讨论宏观因素。

We don't have any discussions about macro factors.

Charlie?

Charlie?
F1
F12:10

对,不过在那场恐慌最严重的时候,我们确实保留了流动性储备。

Yeah, but we did keep liquid reserves at the bottom of the panic.
M1
M12:15

要是我们——如果我们当时知道情况不会变得更糟,我们就会把钱投出去。

That if we— knowing it was not going to get any worse, we would have spent.
F1
F12:20

但那是因为我们当时并不知道。

But that's because we didn't know that.
M1
M12:21

对,我们,我们都——我们知道自己不知道什么,而且我们都——我们知道自己不想破产。

Yeah, we, we all— we know what we don't know, and we, we all— we, we know we don't want to go broke.

我的意思是,我们首先就从这一点出发,而且我们知道,只要手头有相当一部分流动性储备,又没有近期到期的债务之类的,你就不会破产。

I mean, we start with that, and we know you can't go broke if you've got a fair amount of liquid reserves around and you don't have any near-term debts and so on.

所以我们的第一条原则,永远都是要确保明天还能继续玩下去,不管发生什么。

So our first rule is always to play tomorrow, no matter what happens.

不过,要是这一点已经有保障了,而且我们又能找到有吸引力的东西,那我们就会买。

Uh, but if we've got that covered, and we can find things that are attractive, we buy it.

Charlie 有一家小公司,叫 Daily Journal Corporation,他当时手里攥着一大笔现金坐在那里。

Well, Charlie has a little company called the Daily Journal Corporation, and he sat there with a whole lot of cash.

等到二零零八年来了,他就出去买了几只股票。

And when 2008 came along, he went out and bought a few stocks.

他不肯告诉我那些股票叫什么名字,不过——你知道,那时候钱就该拿出来用,而不是捂在手里。

He won't tell me the names of them, but—and he, you know, that was the time to use the money, not to sit on it.

Charlie,那只股票就叫这个名字吗?

Was that the name of the stock, Charlie?
F1
F13:11

你从他嘴里什么都套不出来。

You don't get anything out of him.

七号话筒。

Station 7.