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How the Latest AI Leap Is Disrupting Business Models

326 段 · 1 位说话人 · 原片 30:31
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2025年底的时候,有一波模型升级,一开始看起来就跟平时那种渐进式提升差不多,没什么特别的。但几周后,大家放假回家开始真正动手折腾的时候才发现,这套新能力其实完全是另一回事了。

Back at the end of 2025, we got a set of model advances which first seemed innocuously like just the next step of an incremental gain, but which, as we would discover a few weeks later when people went home for the holidays and really started to experiment, represented something totally new in terms of the capability set.

那波模型突破后来就催生了2026年主打的智能体进展。

Those model jumps would lead to the agentic progress that has defined 2026.

而现在,我们好像又站在了类似的节点上。

And now it seems we might be in a similar moment.

现在有越来越多的人成功地把软件,尤其是游戏,给反编译出来,然后用Astra、Opus 5.5这些模型重新组合成新的样子。

More than ever before, people are having success decompiling software and particularly games and reconstituting them in new ways using models like Astra and Opus 5.5.

今天我们聊一聊,这对软件和游戏公司的商业模式意味着什么,以及它们怎么应对这个新挑战。

Today we're exploring what the implications are for the business model of these software and game companies and how they're responding to the new challenge.

《AI Daily Brief》是一档每日播客和视频节目,专门聊AI领域最重要的新闻和讨论。

The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI.

好,朋友们,在正式开聊之前先插播几个通知。

All right, friends, quick announcements before we dive in.
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今天第一个话题,是一类在未来一段时间会经常出现的新闻——就是Anthropic上市前的最新营收数据,以及围绕它的一大堆讨论。

We kick off today with a category of story that is going to be frequent for some time, which is of course the latest pre-IPO revenue numbers from Anthropic and all of the discourse that surrounds it.

周三那天,Anthropic在旧金山办公室给机构投资人搞了一个上市前的投资者日活动。

On Wednesday, Anthropic hosted institutional money managers at their San Francisco office for a pre-IPO investor day.

这个机会主要是让投资人见见管理团队,多了解了解公司情况。

The event served as an opportunity to meet the executive team and learn more about the company.

听说他们还发了思考帽,而且全程尽量不谈存在风险。不过所有人的目光都集中在当天晚些时候公布的营收数据上。

They reportedly handed out thinking caps and managed to avoid talking about existential risks, but all eyes were on the latest revenue figures delivered at a presentation towards the end of the day.

《金融时报》报道说,Anthropic告诉投资人,他们第三季度营收是168亿美元,比第二季度涨了45%。

The Financial Times reports that Anthropic told the investors they'd recorded $16.8 billion in revenue in Q3, up 45% from their Q2 number.

这个数字应该是实际营收,不是年化后的估算值。

That seems to be the actual revenue generated, not an annualized run rate.

不过估计还是毛收入,没扣除跟Amazon还有其他算力合作方的分成。

However, presumably it's still gross revenue counted before the revenue split with Amazon and other compute partners.

因为这是Anthropic偏爱的记账方式。

As that is Anthropic's preferred accounting model.

Anthropic还表示,他们在调整后的基础上是盈利的,自由现金流为正,调整后的毛利率85%,调整后的营业利润率11%。

Anthropic also said that they were profitable on an adjusted basis, are generating positive free cash flow, and had 85% adjusted gross margins and 11% adjusted operating margins.

Anthropic通常会把股权激励、训练成本和收入分成从调整后的数字里剔除掉。

Anthropic has typically excluded stock comp, training costs, and revenue shares from their adjusted numbers.

这份报告被当成了全世界最重要的公司发布季度财报一样来对待,这也算是提前预演一下,等它们真上市了会是什么场面。

In a little preview of how things are going to be when these companies go public, the report was treated like the most important company in the world was delivering their quarterly earnings report.

而且说实话,离实际情况也差不太远。

And in many ways, that's not too far from the truth.

整个夏天到秋初,股市一直不太稳,所以要是Anthropic的IPO搞砸了,后果可能挺严重的。

The stock market has been shaky throughout the summer and early fall, so a lackluster IPO from Anthropic could have some serious consequences.

不过,一家还没上市的公司,营收传闻能受到这么大的关注,也确实是前所未有的事。

Still, it is certainly unprecedented to see so much focus on revenue rumors from a private company.

X上有些分析师很快就说这是个大翻车。

Some analysts on X were quick to call it a big flop.

科技股盘后还在跌,Geiger Capital发帖说,不够好。

With tech stocks selling off after hours, Geiger Capital posted, not good enough.

完了。

It's over.

也有人纳闷,环比增长50%怎么就被当成不及格了呢?

Others wondered how in the world a 50% quarter-over-quarter growth rate was perceived as an underperformance.

Krypton Research的Abhi Desai评论说:市场是不喜欢Anthropic现阶段170亿美元的季度营收?

Abhi Desai of Krypton Research commented, market doesn't like $17 billion in quarterly revenue from Anthropic at this stage?

认真的吗?

Seriously?

更复杂的是,路透社在最初数据之后又补充说,Anthropic预计到年底年化营收能达到1100亿美元。

Adding a further wrinkle, after the initial number, Reuters added that Anthropic is expecting $110 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year.

他们第三季度的数据折合成年化是700亿美元,也就是说Anthropic认为自己在第四季度还能再猛涨57%。

Their Q3 numbers extrapolate out to $70 billion annualized, implying that Anthropic believes they have another 57% growth spurt coming in Q4.

Ticker Trends更新了他们的实时营收图表,过去六个月这个图表一直挺准的。

Ticker Trends updated their live revenue chart, which has been pretty accurate over the past 6 months.

这表明自从七月底以来,营收增长一直持平,就是说Anthropic一定觉得有什么大事要发生,能在年底前把营收拉起来。

It showed that revenue growth has been flat since the end of July, meaning Anthropic must see something big coming that will juice revenues into the end of the year.

Andrew Curran觉得那是什么太明显了,他发帖说,1100亿美元又回来了。

Andrew Curran thought it was pretty obvious what that would be, posting, $110 billion is back on the menu.

他们肯定对他们下一个模型发布——The Wizard, Fable 5.5——特别有信心。

They must have a lot of confidence in their next model release, the wizard, Fable 5.5.

就像我之前说的,华尔街把希望寄托在一家私人公司未经审计的财报上,这极其反常,但这就是现在市场的交易状态。

As I said before, it is unusual in the extreme for Wall Street to be pinning their hopes on unaudited financials from a single private company, but that's how the market is trading right now.

Anthropic仍然计划在未来几个月内以两万亿美元的估值上市,并且据说会寻求创纪录的IPO融资规模。

Anthropic is still planning on going public at a $2 trillion valuation sometime over the coming months and will reportedly ask for record-breaking IPO funding.

值得注意的是,把交易快速搞定有一个会计上的好处。

It's worth noting that there is an accounting benefit to getting the deal done quickly.

Anthropic可以用最多134天前的财务披露来上市,所以他们很可能会只包含第一季度和第二季度的数据。

Anthropic can go public with a financial disclosure up to 134 days old, so there's a strong chance they'll only include Q1 and Q2 numbers.

那就意味着周三报告的未经审计的第三季度数据,将是市场能拿到的最新信息。

That means the unaudited Q3 numbers reported on Wednesday will be the most recent information the market has.

当然,如果Fable 5.5大获成功,Anthropic能借此泄露新的高营收数字,那这些都不重要;但现在就是他们以最高估值完成IPO的窗口期。

Of course, none of that matters if Fable 5.5 is a hit and Anthropic can leak booming new revenue as a result, but right now is their window of opportunity to get the IPO done at top dollar.

接着说,昨天很多大新闻都在市场领域。

Continuing on, a lot of the big headlines from yesterday were in the market sphere.

CoreWeave的债券已经跌到不良水平,因为NeoCloud的资金来源断了。

CoreWeave's bonds have reached distressed levels as NeoCloud funding dries up.

周二,CoreWeave 2032年到期的无担保债券迅速跌到面值的80美分。

On Tuesday, unsecured CoreWeave bonds maturing in 2032 plunged to $0.80 on the dollar in a rapid move.

它们现在已经是垃圾债了,交易隐含利率达到15%,说明市场正在给严重的违约风险定价。

They're now beyond junk debt, trading at an implied interest rate of 15%, indicating the market is pricing a serious risk of default.

投资人Chamath Palihapitiya发了一张过去四个月价格走势的图,显示利率从10%快速下降。

Investor Chamath Palihapitiya posted a chart of the past 4 months of price action, showing a rapid decline from 10% rates.

Elon Musk就回了句,yikes。

Elon Musk simply responded, yikes.

当天股票也跌了15%,远超纳斯达克整体1.6%的跌幅。

The stock was also down 15% on the day, outpacing a 1.6% fall overall in the Nasdaq.

AI空头纷纷扑向衰落的Neo Cloud。

AI bears are piling on the declining Neo Cloud.

DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria,他曾把CoreWeave叫做AI行业的次优级部分,他警告说如果数据中心融资停滞,这股票可能跌到零。

DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria, who has referred to CoreWeave as the subprime tranche of the AI industry, warned the stock could go to zero if data center funding stalls.

他认为这家公司每做一步都在摧毁价值,这是他的原话,通过继续借钱,而且,如果CoreWeave以9%的利率借钱,而最好的回报率只有5%,那不管怎么扩大规模都没用。

He argued that the company is destroying value at every turn, his phrase, by continuing to borrow, adding, If CoreWeave is borrowing at 9% and the best return they can get off that is a 5% return, it doesn't matter how much they scale.

用很高的利息借钱来建数据中心,而这些数据中心除了超大规模云厂商之外越来越同质化,最后可能不是一笔好投资。

Borrowing at very high interest rates in order to build data centers that are increasingly commoditized outside of the hyperscalers may not end up being a good investment.

我们用越多的杠杆来建数据中心,就越往系统里塞风险。

The more leverage we use to build data centers, the more risk we're bringing into the system.

CoreWeave的CEO Mike Entrater正在跟市场对着干,他声称市场行为不理性。

CoreWeave CEO Mike Entrater is fighting the market, claiming it's acting irrationally.

在发给彭博社的员工备忘录里,Entrater写道,当你创建一家新型科技公司时,总会有市场误解的时期。

In a staff memo shared with Bloomberg, Entrater wrote, when you're building a new type of technology company, there will be periods of time when the market misunderstands.

我们对自己的商业模式、客户、卓越的执行质量以及我们打造的财务引擎所遵循的严格纪律充满信心。

We are confident in our business model, our customers, the extraordinary quality of our execution, and the relentless discipline around the financial engine we have built.

不过,《The Information》指出,Entrater的行动跟他挑衅的言论并不一致。

The Information, however, noted that Entrater's actions don't line up with his defiant words.

根据SEC文件,Entrater从四月开始每周都在卖掉CoreWeave的股票,其他内部人士也在套现。

According to SEC filings, Entrater has sold CoreWeave stock every week since April, and other insiders have been cashing out as well.

CoreWeave此前在一份声明里说,公司联合创始人是在做出任何负责任的、持有集中资产的创始人都应该做的个人财务规划决定,这话可能没错,但肯定对股票走出下跌没什么帮助。

CoreWeave previously said in a statement that the company's co-founders were, quote, making personal financial planning decisions that any responsible founder with concentrated holdings would make, and while that may be true, it is certainly not helping the stock pull out of this downturn.

另一方面,看看市场动态——对AI的需求绝对没有减少。

On the flip side, hold up the market dynamics— there is certainly no decrease in the demand for AI.

事实上,荷兰芯片制造商ASML说,公司未来几年都满足不了需求。

In fact, Dutch chip fab manufacturer ASML says that the company won't be able to meet demand for several years.

ASML是半导体制造背后那些复杂机械的领先生产商,这些机械被称为工具。

ASML is the leading producer of the complex machinery behind semiconductor manufacturing, referred to as tools.

对于生产AI GPU所需的高端技术,比如EUV光刻机,他们拥有完全垄断地位。

For high-end technology like the EUV lithography required for AI GPUs production, they hold a complete monopoly.

ASML此前提出了一项将供应量提升30%的计划。

ASML had previously delivered a plan to boost supply by 30%.

不过,在本周的财报电话会议上,他们警告说,需求远远超出了他们的管理能力。

However, during this week's earnings call, they warned that demand is running way ahead of what they can manage.

台积电、三星和SK海力士都制定了未来几年的宏伟扩张计划。

TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix have all laid out ambitious expansion plans over the coming years.

此外还有埃隆·马斯克的TerraFab项目,目标是成为全球最大的芯片制造工厂。

Then there's Elon Musk's TerraFab project, which aims to be the largest chipmaking facility in the world.

ASML表示,至少两年内,甚至更长时间,他们都无法满足这一需求。

ASML has said that they won't be able to meet this demand for at least 2 years, if not longer.

CEO克里斯托弗·福凯说,客户每天都在要求他们提供更多设备。

CEO Christophe Fouquet said, Customers are asking us every single day to get more tools.

我们正在研究如何在2028年之前,在我们之前公布的30%增产基础上,进一步提高产能。

We are investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated.

他补充说,一些客户的预订已经排到了2029年,甚至2039年。

He added that some customers have reservations that stretch into 2029 and even 2039.

CFO罗杰·达森指出,在这个资本密集型行业,要增加额外供应没有太多办法。他表示,引用原话,“即使我们今天就开始动工,要在2028年之前建成巨大的产能也是极其困难的。”

CFO Roger Dassen noted that there's nothing much that can be done to bring on extra supply in the capital-intensive industry, commenting that it would be, quote, Extremely hard to get something done that gives you tremendous capacity by 2028, even if we started digging today.

在最新的AI安全讨论中,英伟达CEO黄仁勋再次强调,生产AI的公司有责任确保其产品的安全性。

In the latest on AI safety discourse, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is doubling down on the idea that it is the responsibility of the companies that are producing the AI to make sure their products are safe.

周三在英国的一系列活动中,这位英伟达CEO多次被问及对AI安全的看法。

During a string of appearances in the UK on Wednesday, the Nvidia CEO was repeatedly asked his views on AI safety.

在接受彭博社的专访时,黄仁勋被问到,他是否会停止向不负责任的AI开发者供应芯片。

In a sit-down interview with Bloomberg, Jensen was asked if he would stop supplying chips to an irresponsible AI developer.

这是一个假设性问题,但答案是会。

It's a hypothetical, but yes.

但在那之前,你会先进行对话。

But before you do so, you would have a conversation.

我们不经营别人的公司,我们对其他公司如何使用我们的技术所做的判断是有限度的。

We don't run other people's companies, and there's a limit to the judgment we apply to other companies' use of our technology.

我们的技术是通用技术。

Our technology is general purpose.

当天晚些时候的记者会上,一位记者向黄仁勋追问更多细节。

During a press scrum later in the day, a journalist asked Jensen for more details.

这位记者将他对黄仁勋观点的理解概括为:灭绝的可能性为0%,AI安全只是一个工程问题,而且我们已经解决了。

The journalist summarized his understanding of Jensen's view as, there's a 0% chance of extinction, AI safety is just an engineering problem, and we've got it solved.

不,我说的是,这事在我们的掌控之中。

No, what I say is that it is in our control.

从现在到人类终结,我们会有很多工作要做。

Between now and the end of humanity, we're going to have a lot of work to do.

每一天,随着我们推进技术和能力,我们也必须推进安全技术。

Every single day as we advance the technology and capability, we also have to advance the safety technology.

提升能力和提升安全并不冲突。

Advancing capability and advancing safety are not in conflict.

事实上,它们是一体的。

They are, in fact, one.

这种更为细致的讨论让一些人觉得,黄仁勋对安全风险并不轻率,他只是认为这是一个可处理的问题,应该用工程手段而非政治手段来应对。

The more nuanced discussion suggested to some that Jensen is not flippant about safety risks, he just believes that they're a tractable problem that should be engaged with engineering rather than politics.

在他看来,事情并不那么简单,不是说存在界限分明的支持安全和反对安全两大阵营直接对立。

It's not as simple in his eyes as there being well-defined pro-safety and anti-safety camps in direct opposition to each other.

尽管这个词的定义可能并不清晰,因为是我自己造的词,我或许可以在某种程度上把黄仁勋称为“AI现实主义者”。

Ill-defined though the term may be, given that I am the one making it up, I might in some ways label Jensen an AI realist.

为了证明这一点,英伟达宣布将在五年内投入2.5亿美元的算力,用于英国的安全工作。

Demonstrating the point, Nvidia announced $250 million in compute for safety efforts in the UK across 5 years.

黄仁勋在一份声明中说:“英国为这一关键工程挑战带来了世界级的科学严谨性。”

Jensen said in a statement, 'The UK brings world-class scientific rigor to this essential engineering challenge.'

凭借这2.5亿美元的承诺,英伟达将把加速计算交到英国研究人员手中,以开发、测试和加强针对日益强大的AI的安全保障措施。

With this $250 million commitment, Nvidia will put accelerated computing in the hands of UK researchers to develop, test, and strengthen safeguards for increasingly powerful AI.

在另一个例子中,公司如何应对人工智能带来的紧迫挑战,这项技术实际上正在银行业引发招聘热潮,但原因可能和你想象的不一样。

In another example of how companies are addressing the here-and-now challenges of AI, the technology is actually causing a hiring boom in the banking sector, but not for the reasons you might think.

美国银行透露,他们雇佣了1000名承包商来支持3000名员工,开展一项大规模的新工作,以修补由Mythos发现的漏洞。

Bank of America revealed that they've hired 1,000 contractors to support 3,000 staff in a massive new effort to patch bugs revealed by Mythos.

软件修补加上反洗钱合规工作的增加,导致第三季度额外支出数亿美元,不过预计这一数字会随时间下降。

The software patching combined with a rise in anti-money laundering compliance drove hundreds of millions of dollars in additional costs in the 3rd quarter, although this is expected to fall over time.

首席执行官Brian Moynihan表示:‘这种风险是真实存在的,正因为如此,当前沿模型问世时,我们很多人都坐下来思考,我们该如何快速找到应对之策?’

CEO Brian Moynihan said, 'That risk is real risk, and that's why when the frontier-type models came out, a lot of us sat down and said, how do we figure out how to get through this quickly?'

这1000名承包商是在第二季度增加的,目前他们仍全部参与该项目。

The 1,000 contractors were added in the second quarter and are all still engaged in the project today.

这让人想起本月早些时候摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon的评论,他说,在Mythos出现后,银行业的网络风险增加了,用他的话说,增加了十倍。

This is reminiscent of comments earlier this month from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who said that cyber risks in banking went up, in his words, tenfold after Mythos.

他补充说,他的银行并没有对这些风险反应过度,而是‘卷起袖子,着手解决这个问题’。

He added that his bank isn't getting hysterical over the risk, but, quote, what we're doing is rolling up our sleeves and going to work to fix it.

昨天关于OpenAI员工被指控在办公室安装窃听装置的报道,有一个小小的花絮/真实犯罪后续:这名被指控的员工上周被捕时,原本计划乘坐下一班飞往沙特的航班逃离。

One little human interest/true crime follow-up from yesterday's story about the OpenAI employee charged with planting a listening device in their office: that accused employee had planned to skip town on the next flight to Saudi Arabia when he was arrested last week.

新的法庭文件称,这名沙特国民预订了10月12日飞往沙特的单程机票。

New court documents claim that the Saudi national had booked a one-way ticket to Saudi Arabia for October 12th.

司法部于10月8日申请密封起诉书和逮捕令,声称公开披露可能会危及对被告的抓捕。

The DOJ had requested a sealed indictment and arrest warrant on October 8th, claiming that public disclosure might jeopardize the defendant's arrest.

政府律师写道:‘被告有能力,也有动机在得知此案后、被捕之前更早逃离美国。’

Government attorneys wrote, 'The defendant has the means and will have an incentive to flee the United States sooner if he learns about this case before he is arrested.'

看来这个直觉是对的。

It seems the instinct was correct.

逮捕在第二天执行,正好赶在被告可能逃离美国之前的一个狭窄窗口期。

The arrest was carried out the following day, hitting a narrow window before the defendant could flee the country.

这场戏剧性的逮捕使国际间谍活动成为人工智能竞赛中令人担忧的核心问题,但构建这项技术的公司多年来一直对外国间谍保持警惕。

The dramatic arrest has put international espionage front and center as a concern for the AI race, but the companies building the technology have been vigilant about foreign spies for years.

《华尔街日报》的一篇文章讨论了外国特工试图从人工智能研究人员那里获取内部信息的各种方式。

A Wall Street Journal article discussed a range of different ways foreign agents have attempted to gain inside information from AI researchers.

这些方式包括在酒吧里用美女搭讪,以及间谍伪装成一家人在游乐场活动。

These ranged from attractive women approaching them in bars, to spies disguised as a family at the playground.

OpenAI对新员工入职培训中有一整部分内容,专门讲解如何察觉内部威胁以及在日常活动中识别情报人员。

OpenAI has an entire section of their employee onboarding devoted to detecting insider threats and recognizing intelligence agents while out and about.

最后,坏消息来了,AI熊们——俄罗斯政府要找你们了!

Lastly today, bad news AI bears, the Russian government is coming for you!

俄罗斯当局正在打击AI熊。

Russian authorities are cracking down on AI bears.

不是指本周做空新云厂商的那些交易者,而是字面意义上由AI生成的熊的图片。

Not the traders who are shorting neoclouds this week, but rather literal AI-generated images of bears.

路透社报道,一张熊在偏远村庄街头游荡的病毒式图片,引发了动物控制部门的真实熊猎行动。

Reuters reports that a viral image of a bear roaming through the streets of a remote village triggered a real-life bear hunt by animal control.

这张图片最初只是朋友之间的恶作剧,但在本地群聊中像野火一样传播,引发了报警。

The image began as a prank among friends, but spread like wildfire across local group chats, prompting police reports.

在确认该村庄没有熊之后,承认制作这张图片的女子被罚款15000卢布,约合178美元。

Once the village was confirmed to be bear-free, the woman who confessed to creating the image was fined 15,000 rubles, around $178.

这就是今天的要闻简报。

And that is going to do it for the headlines.

接下来是主要节目。

Next up, the main episode.

毕马威和德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的一项新研究发现,当人们与人工智能合作时,相似的技能并不能保证相似的结果。

A new study from KPMG and the University of Texas at Austin found that when people work with AI, similar skills don't guarantee similar outcomes.

研究人员研究了500多名早期职业专业人士,发现表现最好的人通过引导、评估和完善AI的输出,持续放大了AI的价值。

Researchers studied more than 500 early-career professionals and found that the best performers consistently amplified the value of AI by guiding, evaluating, and refining its outputs.

这些被称为‘AI放大器’的顶尖表现者,其定义不仅仅是他们知道什么,而是他们如何与AI合作。

These top performers, called AI Amplifiers, weren't defined by what they knew alone, but by how they worked with AI.
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如果你收听这个节目,你可能有自己的判断。

If you listen to this show, you likely have a thesis.

也许是企业采用,也许是计算能力,也许是某个特定的实验室。

Maybe it's enterprise adoption, maybe it's compute, maybe it's a specific lab.
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Blitzy对代码库的深入理解,解锁了每个路线图负责人都在乎的东西:发布新功能。

Blitzy's deep codebase understanding unlocks the thing every roadmap owner cares about: shipping new features.

关于在大型企业代码库中开发,事实是这样的:写代码从来不是瓶颈。上下文才是。

Here's the truth about building inside a massive enterprise codebase: writing code was never the bottleneck. Context is.

上下文才是。

Context is.
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欢迎回到AI日报。

Welcome back to the AI Daily Brief.

自从ChatGPT发布那天起,人们就在推测AI最终会如何颠覆、改变或彻底摧毁某些商业模式。

Since pretty much the day that ChatGPT launched, people have been speculating about how AI would eventually disrupt or change or completely destroy certain types of business models.

然而,在之后很长一段时间里,这种讨论很大程度上还停留在理论层面。

And yet, for a lot of the time since then, that conversation has been largely theoretical.

但是,有几次能力的大幅提升,让这种讨论重新大规模浮现,我们现在就正经历着这样的时刻。

There have been a few moments, however, when some big increase in capability has resurfaced that conversation in a massive way, and we are living through one of those right now.

本月初,一位有创业精神的开发者,仅凭一个Claude代码订阅和对SaaS的怨恨,就威胁要击垮一家最大的软件公司。

Earlier this month, an enterprising developer threatened to take down one of the largest software firms with nothing more than a Claude code subscription and a grudge against SaaS.

“软件已经完了,”Brandon Thomas在Hacker News上发帖说。

Software is over, declared Brandon Thomas in a Hacker News post.

“我一次性搞定了Photoshop,整个软件。”

I just one-shotted Photoshop, the whole thing.

Thomas曾使用Claude Opus反编译了一份Photoshop,并以所谓的“干净室重建”方式重新构建了它。

Thomas had used Claude Opus to decompile a copy of Photoshop and reconstruct it in what's known as a clean room rebuild.

在AI革命之前,干净室重建是一种很少用来规避软件版权的方法。

Prior to the AI revolution, clean room rebuilds were a seldom used way of getting around software copyright.

一组工程师会反编译软件代码,记录功能,并将信息传给另一组。

One group of engineers would decompile software code, document features, and pass the information to another group.

这个第二组从未见过原始代码,他们就能构建自己的软件版本,而不会陷入版权侵权的指控。

Having never seen the actual code, this second group could build their own version of the software without falling foul of a copyright infringement claim.

可以想象,这是一个耗时且昂贵的过程,所以很少使用。

As you might imagine, this was a time-consuming and costly process, so was seldom used.

但AI让个人实现这一点变得更实际了。

But AI has made it a bit more practical to achieve on an individual basis.

Thomas继续推进这个项目,很快就有了AI生成整个Adobe套件的盗版版本。

Thomas kept working on the project and quickly had AI-generated bootlegs of the entire Adobe.

虽然还有不少bug,功能也不完全完善,但Thomas现在免费提供一套企业软件套件,而Adobe对其定价是每月100美元。

There are still plenty of bugs and it's not quite feature complete, but Thomas is now offering a free version of an enterprise software suite that Adobe prices at $100 a month.

单是这一点就足以引发一场小型的“SaaS末日”论,周末该故事广为传播后,Adobe股价在周一开盘下跌了3%。

This all on its own was enough to generate a mini version of the SaaS-pocalypse, with Adobe stock opening 3% lower on Monday after the story went viral over the weekend.

此后有所回升,但对软件行业生存能力的担忧仍然相当深。

It has recovered a little since, but there's still some fairly deep concerns about the viability of the software industry.

在上周末的All-In播客中,Chamath Palihapitiya说:“我认为知识产权和软件在两天前实际上已经变得一文不值。”

On the All-In podcast last weekend, Chamath Palihapitiya said, I think that IP and software was effectively rendered worthless 2 days ago.

因为你想,当所有东西都变得无头化时——所以当Elon把他的服务做成无头,Benioff几个月前也把Salesforce做成无头——当所有这些都无头化,你可以用代理工具包装它们,通过MCP连接到其他体验,那么软件中的知识产权价值就不再存在了。

Because if you think about it, when everything is headless, so when Elon makes his service headless, Benioff made Salesforce headless a few months earlier, when all of these things are headless and you can wrap them in agent tools and you can connect them via MCP to other experiences, the value of IP no longer exists in software.

它不存在了。

It doesn't exist.

我认为这可能是最深远的影响。

And I think that probably is the most profound implication.

他接着解释说,他的AI SaaS业务在为客户构建系统时,已经停止就保留知识产权进行谈判。

He went on to explain that his AI SaaS business has stopped negotiating to retain IP when they build systems for clients.

以前,他说,总是一场谈判和权衡。

Before, he said, it was always a negotiation and a set of trade-offs.

现在变成了“谁在乎”的事,知识产权无关紧要。

Now it's a who cares thing where like the IP is irrelevant.

现在,也许这有点,怎么说呢,播客式的夸大。

Now maybe this is a little bit, shall we say, podcast hyperbolic.

当然,人们几十年来一直以传统方式盗版Adobe软件。

People have of course been pirating Adobe software the old-fashioned way for decades.

而这并没有影响他们的业务。

And it hasn't impacted their business.

实际情况是,大多数SaaS公司卖的不是软件本身,而是围绕软件的服务支持——说白了,就是让IT采购经理能通过支付合理的月费,把所有的维护工作都甩出去。

The reality is, of course, that most SaaS companies aren't selling the software, they're selling the support that goes around it— the ability for an IT procurement manager, in other words, to offload all the maintenance work for a reasonable monthly fee.

本质上,我们正在看到vibe coding叙事的重演,当时有人短暂地以为公司会自己去操作CRM和会计软件。

Essentially, we're seeing a rerun of the vibe coding narrative, when some people briefly thought companies would be prompting their own CRM and accounting software.

这个叙事开始流行已经9个月了,大多数尝试过这个想法的公司又悄悄回到了Salesforce的合同里。

It's been 9 months since that narrative kicked off, and most of the companies who experimented with the idea have quietly returned to their Salesforce contracts.

不过,这并不意味着没有重大变化正在发生。

Which is not to say that there aren't major changes afoot.

虽然我打赌企业级SaaS不会那么快消失,但电子游戏行业正面临一系列不同的挑战。

Although I'd bet on enterprise SaaS not going anywhere fast, the video games industry is facing a different set of challenges.

AAA游戏正经历疫情高峰后的严重衰退。

AAA gaming is in the grips of a severe downturn coming off of the pandemic high.

主机销量处于13年来的最低点,大型工作室裁员数万人,除了少数关键作品外,新游戏的销售数据都不太好看。

Console sales are at a 13-year low, major studios have laid off tens of thousands of workers, and outside of a few key titles, new games are seeing some rough sales numbers.

在这种背景下,软件解耦的趋势像一列货运火车一样冲击着这个行业。

In that context, the trend of decoupling software has sort of hit the industry like a freight train.

一开始,是一些轻松有趣的游戏混搭,比如《艾尔登法环》里的超级马里奥、《阿卡姆疯人院》里的蜘蛛侠。

At first, it was some lighthearted fun with video game mashups like Super Mario in Elden Ring and Spider-Man in Arkham Asylum.

然后,传统的破解者利用AI加速了PS5的越狱,让它能玩几乎任何平台的游戏。

Then traditional crackers used AI to accelerate efforts to jailbreak the PS5, allowing it to play games from basically any system.

本周索尼总部大概要开好几场危机会议。

There are probably a few crisis meetings going on this week at Sony HQ.

Bloomberg Intelligence的分析师认为,流媒体游戏与AI的结合最终会终结游戏主机。

Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence believe the convergence of streamed games and AI will ultimately kill off gaming consoles.

他们的论点是,AI将支持更复杂的AAA游戏,而这些游戏更适合在数据中心硬件上运行,而不是你客厅里那个塑料盒子里的GPU。

The thesis is that AI will support more complex AAA games that are better served from data center hardware than a GPU in a plastic box in your living room.

主机还因半导体的竞争而承受着极大的成本压力。

Consoles are also suffering from extreme cost pressure due to the competition for semiconductors.

基础版PS5现在售价650美元,而刚上市时是500美元,更别提Steam Machine那1000美元的定价了。

The base model PS5 is now $650 compared to $500 at launch, and that's to say nothing of the $1,000 price tag for the Steam Machine.

Bloomberg Intelligence写道:游戏硬件正转向一个更小众的发烧友市场。

Bloomberg Intelligence wrote, Game hardware is shifting towards a narrower market of enthusiasts.

主机仍会吸引追求顶级性能的忠实玩家,或许也会被收藏家青睐,就像黑胶唱片机仍在音乐领域被使用一样。

Consoles will remain relevant for avid players seeking premium performance, and perhaps among collectors in the same way that record players continue to be used for music.

但主机的角色正从视频游戏的主要入口,变成众多入口之一,而且是一个相对不经济的入口。

But consoles' role is moving from video gaming's main gateway, to just one of many access points, and a relatively uneconomic one at that.

不过,商业模式的颠覆和做事方式的变化并不总是坏事。

Still, business model disruption and changes in the way that things happen does not always mean for the worse.

一些人认为行业会走向另一个方向——小团队也能打造出优质产品。

Some believe the industry will go in the other direction, with small teams becoming capable of delivering premium products.

游戏引擎开发者George Cowell发帖说:Opus 5.5在游戏开发上已经好得吓人了。

George Cowell, a game engine developer, posted: Opus 5.5 is scary good at game dev.

不只是代码——shader、系统设计、关卡逻辑、音效、工具、调试,方方面面都行。

Not just code— shaders, system design, level logic, sounds, tooling, debugging, across the board.

我们正处在一个转折点上。

We're at an inflection point.

一两年内,每个独立开发者都能做出自己心中想做的游戏。

In 1-2 years, every solo dev will be able to ship the game in their head.

质量很高,不需要工作室。

High quality, no studio needed.

那还有什么护城河吗?

Will there be any moat left?

可能只剩下品味和受众了。

Probably only taste and audience.

Elon Musk对这个时间线有不同意见,评论道:明年。

Elon Musk quibbled with the timeline, commenting: Next year.

AI新闻聚合器Andrew Curran在总结现状时写道:如果你不亲自用这些模型,也不看别人在社交媒体上发的演示,你可能没意识到最近游戏开发能力实现了惊人的飞跃。

Summing up the State of Play, AI news aggregator Andrew Curran wrote, If you don't use the models or watch the demos people post on social media, you may not realize there has been an astonishing jump in game development capability lately.

我们真的离一个人游戏工作室不远了。

We really are not that far away from a one-person game studio anymore.

现在你可以把游戏混搭起来,模型会在一天之内给出一个稳定、可玩的融合版本。

You can mash up games now and the model will deliver a stable, playable fusion in one day.

有些作品好到人们都不敢公开贴到网上,因为怕被告。

Some of them are so good that people don't post them openly online because they are afraid of getting sued.

这就是过去几周里,Astra 和 Opus 5-5 带来的进步速度。

That's how quickly things have improved over the last few weeks with Astra and Opus 5-5.

因为游戏行业对 AI 的抵制情绪非常激烈,所以接下来要来的东西会让所有人完全措手不及。

Because of how virulently anti-AI the game industry has become, people are going to get completely blindsided by what's about to arrive.

他们不仅没意识到事情进步得有多快,似乎也不理解最终的局面是什么。

Not only are they unaware of how fast things are improving, they don't seem to understand the endgame.

我看到人们在讨论供给过剩之类的話題。

I see people talking about supply gluts, things like that.

这可不是为了做游戏放到 Steam 上卖、跟行业竞争。

This isn't about making games to sell on Steam and compete with the industry.

如果玩家知道自己想要什么类型的游戏,而他们的模型能按他们要求的类型、他们喜欢的美术风格和角色设计,做出 AAA 级别的游戏,那么问题就变成了:为什么还要从游戏公司买游戏呢?

If the player knows the type of game they want, and their model can code the game for them at the AAA level, in the genre they ask for, with the aesthetics and character design they prefer, Then the question becomes, why buy a game from a studio at all?

我觉得 Sir Demis 通过 Genie 看到了这个未来。

I think Sir Demis sees this future with Genie.

只要你付订阅费,就能得到任何你想要的游戏风格,而且是专门为你定制的。

For the price of your subscription, you will get any style of game you want, tailored to you.

一旦这种情况大规模发生,大部分游戏工作室会非常迅速地不复存在。

Once that starts happening at scale, most game studios will very rapidly cease to exist.

这才是真正的终局。

And that's the real endgame.

不是竞争,而是毁灭。

Not competition, destruction.

而且它比人们想象的更近。

And it's closer than people think.

那么游戏工作室们是怎么应对的?

So how are the game studios handling this?

嗯,有几种不同的做法,但看起来它们都知道一场地震式的变革正在逼近。

Well, there's a few different approaches, but all of them seem to know a seismic change is approaching.

《堡垒之夜》的开发商 Epic Games 多年来一直在全力把 AI 当作生产力提升工具,但面对当前的技术水平,他们正在加大投入。

Fortnite makers Epic Games have been all in on AI as a productivity enhancer for several years, but with the state of the current technology, they're making an even bigger push.

这周,他们禁止了手写代码。

This week, they banned handwritten code.

在这项新规定之外,Epic 还推迟了一款即将推出的迪士尼游戏的发布,那是一款以漫威和星球大战角色对战的射击游戏。

Alongside this new mandate, Epic delayed the release of a forthcoming Disney game, a shooter featuring Marvel and Star Wars characters duking it out.

该游戏的开发者们被告知,他们正在转向 AI 优先的制作模式,甚至美术也要完全通过 AI 工作流来生成。

Developers on the game have been told that they're switching to an AI-first production model, even down to the art, which will be entirely generated with full AI workflows.

那些公开反对 AI 的游戏社区,其反应大概正如你所料。

The reaction from the outspokenly anti-AI gaming community is perhaps what you'd expect.

CEO Tim Sweeney 写道:Epic 正在进行一次巨大的转向,调动开发人员重新调整,以实现最大化的 AI 加速。

CEO Tim Sweeney wrote, we have a huge pivot underway here at Epic, moving developers around to retool for maximum AI acceleration.

目标不是用更少的人做同样的事,而是让这里的每个人都能做出更多更好的东西,并把好处带给所有使用 Unreal 的团队。

The aim isn’t to do the same stuff with fewer people, but to enable everyone here to build more and better stuff, and to bring the benefits to all teams using Unreal.

当独立游戏开发者 Andrej Apančić 回应说“Tim,你真的很不会看气氛,真是令人震惊”时,Sweeney 居然反击了。

When indie game developer Andrej Apančić responded, “Your inability to read the room is really, really astounding, Tim,” Sweeney actually fired back.

他写道:“在座的大部分人都希望回到 2016 年,但已经不是了。”

He wrote, “Much of the room wants it to be 2016 again, but it’s not.”

我们作为为行业大部分提供工具和技术的公司,我们的工作是为当下和即将到来的未来做设计。

Our job, as the provider of tools and technology to much of the industry, is to design for the present that is and the future that will soon be.

就我个人而言,我对此很乐观,认为这对创作者来说是赋能。

Personally, I’m optimistic about it and see it as empowering for creators.

然而到目前为止,并不是一帆风顺。

And yet, so far it hasn’t been smooth sailing.

这周 Epic 发布了一个新的游戏启动器,他们自豪地称之为“vibe-coded”。

This week Epic released a new game launcher which they proudly described as vibe-coded.

他们吹嘘说启动时间比 Steam 快得多,并补充说:“这玩意儿是不是更快?”

They boasted of significantly faster launch times compared to Steam, adding, “Is this bad boy faster?”

是的。

Yes.

它会有一些bug吗?

Will it have some bugs?

是的。

Yes.

我们想听这些吗?

Do we want to hear about them?

当然想。

Hell yes.

而且他们肯定都听说了。

And they sure have heard about them.

玩家们贴出了大量视觉bug,搞得好像这个版本完全没做过质量控制一样,但至少速度确实变快了。

Gamers posted a ton of visual glitches that made it seem like zero quality control went into the release, but at least the speedup was real.

与此同时,Xbox采取了不同的策略,他们成立了内部实验室来探索AI。

Xbox, meanwhile, is taking a different approach, spinning off— creating an internal lab to experiment with AI.

在所有AAA工作室中,Xbox近年来受到的打击尤其严重。

Of all the AAA studios, Xbox has been particularly hard hit over recent years.

这差不多成了一个十字路口时刻。

Making this something of a fork-in-the-road moment.

许多行业专家曾以为,在多年表现不佳之后,这个品牌可能会被微软关闭或出售。

Many industry pundits thought the brand might be shuttered or sold off by Microsoft after years of poor performance.

在本周给员工的一份备忘录中,CEO Asha Sharma谈到了当前出现的许多挑战。

In a memo to staff this week, CEO Asha Sharma discussed the many emerging challenges of the moment.

她特别提到了被反编译后重构以在不同硬件或浏览器上运行的游戏浪潮。

She specifically mentioned the wave of decompiled games being rebuilt to run on different hardware or in the browser.

Sharma写道:“这些实验挑战了我们行业长期以来的假设:软件和硬件之间的绑定、创造与玩乐之间的界限,以及人们发现和体验游戏的方式。”

Sharma wrote, “These experiments challenge long-held assumptions about our industry: the tether between software and hardware, the boundary between creation and play, and how people discover and experience games.”

虽然很难预测游戏的未来,但很容易看到可能性:让好游戏更容易触及、赋予老游戏新生、让更多玩家成为创造者和共同创造者。

While it’s hard to predict the future of gaming, it’s easy to see the possibilities in making great games easier to access, giving old games new life, and allowing more players to become creators and co-creators.

这些对玩家来说无疑是好结果,即使——有时正是因为——它们挑战了我们现有的商业模式。

These are unmistakably good outcomes for players, even when, and sometimes because, they challenge our existing business models.

作为回应,Xbox成立了Xbox Labs,一个内部的小型秘密研发团队,他们表示,“将新兴想法变成我们的玩家和开发者可以体验的东西。”

In response, Xbox has created Xbox Labs, a small internal skunkworks to, quote, “turn emerging ideas into things our players and developers can experience.”

计划是公开构建,并利用新兴AI技术带来的想法来拓展,以交付游戏的未来——无论它最终会是什么样子。

The plan is to build in the open and extend ideas made possible with emerging AI technology to deliver the future of gaming, whatever that ends up looking like.

这一回应得到了强烈的积极反响,至少来自AI社区。

The response got a strong positive reaction, at least from the AI community.

MIT的Christian Catalini写道:“当AI撕裂你商业模式所依赖的规则时,这是一堂大师课。”

MIT’s Christian Catalini wrote, “A masterclass in what to do when AI tears up the rules your business was built on.”

你的游戏正在被反编译,并在你不销售的硬件上运行。

Your games are being decompiled and run on hardware you don’t sell.

你可以叫律师来,或者你可以成立一个实验室并拥抱它。

You can call the lawyers, or you can start a lab and embrace it.

总结一下看涨的观点,Alex Finn写道:游戏是当前AI领域最大的单一机会。

Summing up the bull position, Alex Finn wrote, gaming is the single biggest opportunity in AI right now.

2027年对于任何花时间用AI构建游戏的人来说,都绝对是一场淘金热。

2027 will be an absolute gold rush for anyone who dedicates the time to build a game with AI.

AI允许独立开发者用很少的资源就能构建他们梦想中的AAA游戏。

AI allows solo devs to build the AAA games of their dreams with very little resources.

他指出,虽然游戏行业到目前为止完全拒绝了AI,但正如他所说,随着Xbox Labs的推出,第一块多米诺骨牌今天倒下了。

He noted that while the gaming industry had up to this point completely rejected AI, as he put it, the first domino fell today with the introduction of Xbox Labs.

传统公司适应AI时代的另一个有趣例子是Bumble的十亿美元私有化交易。

Another interesting example of legacy companies adjusting to the AI era is Bumble's billion-dollar take-private deal.

周一,《华尔街日报》报道称,Ithaca Holdings正在就收购这家陷入困境的公司进行高级谈判。

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ithaca Holdings was in advanced talks to take ownership of the struggling company.

Ithaca是一家最近成立的投资公司,由前Sequoia合伙人Ravi Gupta和前Meta首席营收官John Hegeman领导。

Ithaca is a recently founded investment firm helmed by former Sequoia partner Ravi Gupta and former Meta Chief Revenue Officer John Hegeman.

周二,Gupta宣布交易完成,他写道:在过去的6个月里,我们看了数百家公司,思考哪些业务会随着AI的发展而变得更有价值。

On Tuesday, Gupta announced the deal was done, writing, over the past 6 months, we've looked at hundreds of companies, asking which businesses would become more valuable as AI advances.

Bumble 显得特别突出。

Bumble stood out.

随着智能变得越来越丰富,我们相信与对的人建立联系并形成有意义的关系会更加珍贵。

As intelligence becomes more abundant, we believe connecting with the right person and forming meaningful relationships will become even more precious.

而前沿技术可以帮助更多人找到并建立这些关系。

And frontier technology can help more people find and build those relationships.

我们在 Ithaca 的目标是将前沿技术应用于重要的事情上。

Our purpose at Ithaca is to apply frontier technology to things that matter.

我们收购持久的企业,用技术进行转型,并长期持有。

We acquire enduring businesses, transform them with technology, and hold for the long term.

我们关注的企业不仅看财务潜力,还看它们丰富生活的能力。

We focus on businesses not only for their financial potential, but their ability to enrich lives.

现在,Bumble 近年来一直在努力让这件事行得通。

Now, Bumble has been struggling to make it work over recent years.

公司在 2021 年 IPO 后估值达到 140 亿美元的峰值,但股价在接下来的一年里暴跌了 95%。

The company peaked at a $14 billion valuation following their 2021 IPO, but the stock price collapsed by 95% in the following year.

Z 世代对约会应用的排斥,让最强消费品软件类别之一在短短几年内变成了彻底的失败。

Gen Z's rejection of dating apps turned one of the strongest consumer software categories into a complete dud over just a few years.

风险投资人 Sarah Guo 在主导这项投资,并为收购论点加油鼓劲。

VC Sarah Guo is leading the investment and cheering on the takeover thesis.

她写道,大规模消费互联网公司是最有趣的那种业务,而一个精干的团队从未像现在这样更有条件去运营它们。

She wrote, consumer internet companies at scale are some of the most fun to be had, and a tiny crack team has never been better set up to run them.

这个团队行动迅速,了解规模和业务质量,而且非常沉迷 AI。

This team is fast, knows scale and business quality, and is extremely AI-pilled.

有了完全的所有权,他们可以围绕 AI 重塑整个公司。

With full ownership, they can rebuild whole companies around it.

这是过去几年里经常出现的另一个概念——基本上就是私募股权策略的 AI 版本,即收购陷入困境的企业,并给它们做一次技术改造。

This is another concept that's been around quite a bit over the last couple of years— basically an AI-flavored twist on the private equity strategy of taking struggling businesses and giving them a tech makeover.

今年早些时候,意大利控股公司 Bending Spoons 上市,其使命是用 AI 改造过时的科技品牌。

Earlier this year, Italian holding company Bending Spoons went public with a mandate to refurbish defunct tech brands using AI.

他们的品牌组合包括 AOL、Vimeo、Meetup 和 Evernote,上个月又把 Airtable 加入其中,当然不包括从公司分拆出去的新 HyperAgent 产品。

Their stable includes AOL, Vimeo, Meetup, and Evernote, and last month they added Airtable to the mix, excluding of course the new HyperAgent product that spun out from the company.

这个论点是,这些品牌仍有收入和可行的产品,但管理费用拖累了它们,而且它们的未来必然要面临变化。

The thesis is that these brands still have revenue and a viable product, but overheads are dragging them down and their futures involve inevitable change.

通过整合员工并利用 AI 降低维护成本,Bending Spoons 相信他们能从这些传统品牌中榨出更好的业绩。

By aggregating staff and using AI to reduce maintenance costs, Bending Spoons believes they can squeeze better performance from these legacy brands.

Bumble 显然不是完全相同的情况,但 Ithaca 显然相信他们可以为这个新的 AI 时代复活并重塑这个品牌。

Bumble obviously isn't the exact same situation, but Ithaca clearly believes they can resurrect and reinvent the brand for this new AI age.

说到 Bending Spoons,Berkshire Hathaway 已经对 AI 转型战略表示了巨大的信心支持。

Speaking of Bending Spoons, Berkshire Hathaway has delivered a massive vote of confidence in the AI transformation strategy.

Warren Buffett 的投资公司已同意进行 3.3 亿美元的私募投资。

Warren Buffett's investment firm has agreed to invest $330 million in private placement.

市场对这一举动非常高兴,周三股价飙升了 40%。

The market was delighted with the move, sending the stock soaring by 40% on Wednesday.

Berkshire 已经是 Bending Spoons 的大投资者,在 7 月 IPO 期间投入了 6 亿美元,而这一轮新投资使他们的持股比例达到 4%。

Berkshire was already a large investor in Bending Spoons, putting $600 million into the company during their July IPO, and this new round of investment takes their stake to 4%.

这笔现金注入给 Bending Spoons 提供了新的资金,去进行另一轮收购。

The injection of cash gives Bending Spoons a new war chest to pursue another round of acquisitions.

不过,有些公司仍然专注于简单地加上智能代理,以扩展业务并提供以前不可能的新服务。

Then again, some companies remain focused on simply bolting on agents to allow them to expand their business and offer new services that wouldn't have previously been possible.

一个意想不到的例子是 David's Bridal 利用 AI 提供全方位婚礼策划服务。

One unexpected example is David's Bridal harnessing AI to offer full-service wedding planning.

76 年来,David's 只卖婚纱,卖得足够多,成了国内最大的婚纱零售商。

For 76 years, David's exclusively sold wedding dresses, and they sold enough to become the largest wedding dress retailer in the country.

从去年开始,他们开始制定新战略,要把业务转型成 AI 驱动的婚礼策划服务。

Beginning last year, they began building a new strategy to transform the business into an AI-powered wedding planning service.

这个战略被戏称为“从走道到算法”,CEO Kelly Cook 说这是为了以轻资产方式发展 David's。

The strategy has been dubbed Aisle to Algorithm, and CEO Kelly Cook said it was aimed at growing David's in an asset-light way.

Cook 说这是一个必须成功的重大赌注,她评论道:“这是一个 180 度的大转向。”

Cook said that this was a huge bet that needs to pay off, commenting, this is a 180-degree pivot.

这家公司于2023年申请破产,理由是疫情后复苏乏力,品牌随后被资产管理公司Scion Investment Corp收购。显然,婚纱业务并没有被AI颠覆,但几十年来结婚率的长期下降趋势,让David's不得不寻求在婚礼行业分得更大一杯羹。

The company filed for bankruptcy in 2023, citing a weak recovery from the pandemic, and the brand was bought by asset management firm Scion Investment Corp. Now, obviously, the wedding dress business hasn't been disrupted by AI, but a secular downtrend in marriage over multiple decades has left David's looking to take a larger slice of the wedding industry.

总的来说,这似乎是一次相当全面的改革。

Overall, it seems to be a pretty extensive overhaul.

David's为新娘打造了一款AI驱动的婚礼策划工具,连接到一个供应商门户,本质上就是标准市场模式加上一点智能体的特色。

David's has built an AI-powered wedding planner for brides that connects to a vendor portal, essentially the standard marketplace play with an agentic twist.

总裁Elena Vilk表示,David's的一大优势是将AI平台与客户数据整合在一起。

President Elena Vilk said that David's big advantage is the integration of the AI platform with customer data.

她说,我们有真正的新娘进入我们的系统。

She said, We have the actual brides coming into our system.

当她们预约、在我们的davidsbridal.com上交易、使用我们的界面时,她们会分享很多独特的个人信息。

When they book their appointment, when they commerce with us on davidsbridal.com, when they go through our surfaces, they're sharing a lot of information that is unique to them.

在技术栈方面,David's使用了多种不同模型的组合来驱动他们的智能体,并计划很快加入对Meta's Muse的支持。

In the tech stack, David's is using a combination of different models to power their agent and plan to add support for Meta's Muse soon.

AI还让之前成本高昂的软件玩法变得更容易管理。

AI has also made a previously costly software play more manageable.

Vilk说这个平台是用标准的智能体编码工具和一个相当精简的团队搭建的,她评论道,以前需要一百多人的工作,我们现在用几十人就能完成。

Vilk said the platform was built with standard agentic coding tools and a fairly lean team, commenting, what would have taken 100+ people before, we were able to do with just tens.

哪怕三年前,我们都不可能实现这样的成果。

There's no way we could have achieved anything like this even 3 years ago.

有趣的是,这一切的背景是模型能力又一次飞跃。

What's interesting about all of this is that the backdrop of it is yet another jump in the model capabilities.

去年年底的Opus 4.5把智能体推到了前台,而Astra和Opus 5.5的组合似乎再次打开了新的机遇。

Opus 4.5 at the end of last year brought agents to the fore, and the combination of Astra and Opus 5.5 are once again, it seems, unlocking new opportunities.

一如既往,对快速变化的预测还是要非常谨慎,但很明显,这些传统玩家中有很多人已经意识到,变化才是当下的主题,他们必须进化才能生存。

As always, it is worth being very cautious about prognostications of rapid change, and yet there is clearly a sense among many of these legacy players that change is now the name of the game and they have to evolve to survive.

过程中难免会有痛苦,但同时也会有很多有趣的新机会。

There will inevitably be pain along the way, but a lot of interesting new opportunities as well.

那么,有了智能体所有这些新超能力,你会创造什么样的游戏呢?

So with all these new superpowers in your agent, what games are you going to create?

也许我们以后得在AI Operators的特别节目里聊这个,但今天这期AI Daily Brief就到这里了。

Maybe we'll have to do that for an AI Operators Bonus at some point, but for now, that's going to do it for today's AI Daily Brief.

一如既往,感谢收听或收看,下次见,peace。

Appreciate you listening or watching as always, and until next time, peace.

Peace。

Peace.
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