M20:21
那你觉得，今天保险业里有哪些条件，会让这种事没法再来一次？嗯，我在这方面有很多很多很多运气，但就保险业务来说，我有三次特别非凡的好运。
So, what do you think are the conditions in the insurance industry today that would inhibit a repeat of that? Well, I had many, many, many pieces of luck, but I had 3 extraordinary pieces of luck in terms of the insurance business.
一次是我二十岁的时候，周六有个叫 Lorimer Davidson 的人，愿意花四个小时跟一个他以前从没听说过的二十岁小伙子，给他讲保险业。
One was when I was 20 years old, having a fellow on a Saturday, a fellow named Lorimer Davidson, be willing to spend 4 hours with some 20-year-old kid who he'd never heard of before, explaining the insurance business to him.
所以我在二十岁时接受到了一次教育，这在美国任何商学院里我都不可能得到。
So I received an education at age 20 that I couldn't have gotten at any business school in the United States.
而那纯粹就是运气。
And that was just pure luck.
我的意思是，我只是碰巧去了 Washington。
I mean, I just happened to go to Washington.
我根本不知道我会碰到他。
I had no idea I would run into him.
我也不知道他会不会跟我说话，而他确实花了四个小时跟我聊。
I had no idea whether he would talk to me, and he spent 4 hours with me.
所以这件事就算上吧。
So just chalk that one up.
这种事再次发生的概率。
The chances of that happening again.
1967 年，我又一次走了运。当时 Jack Ringwalt 每年只买大概五分钟的东西，却想把他的公司卖掉，因为他会因为某件事发火。
In 1967, I got lucky again when Jack Ringwalt, who bought for about 5 minutes every year, wanted to sell his company because he would get mad about something.
有一笔索赔之类的东西进来了，他不喜欢，或者类似的情况。
Some claim had come in that he didn't like or something of the sort.
然后我跟我的朋友说，我对我的朋友 Charlie Heider 说，下次 Jack 心情对的时候，一定把他带到我办公室来。后来有一天 Charlie 真把他带上来了，我们买下了 National Indemnity。
And my friend — I told my friend Charlie Heider, I said, next time Jack is in the mood, be sure and get him to my office, and Charlie got him up there one day and we bought National Indemnity.
这事我们本来做不成。
We couldn't have done that.
别说晚一天，我们甚至晚一个小时都做不成。
We not only couldn't have done that a day later, we couldn't have done it an hour later.
但就是那样，你知道，那也是运气。
But it just, you know, and that was lucky.
然后在八十年代中期，我真的又走了大运。那是个周六，有个人走进办公室，说，我从来没在保险业干过，但也许我能帮你一些忙。
And then I really got lucky in the mid-'80s when on a Saturday some guy came in the office and he said, I've never worked in the insurance business, but maybe I can do you some good.
那个人就是 Ajit Jain。
And that was Ajit Jain.
你说，这运气还能有多好？
And, you know, how lucky can you get?
所以，如果你问我，未来我们能不能再弄出这么一个三连好运，我会说，概率非常非常低。
So, if you ask me whether we could pull off a trifecta like that again in the future, I'd say the odds are very much against it.
但做生意这件事，关键就是对随时出现的想法保持开放，而保险正好是我能理解的东西。
But the whole thing in business is being open to ideas as they come along, and insurance happened to be something that I could understand.
我的意思是，那正好在我的舒适区里。
I mean, that was in my sweet spot.
如果 Lorimer Davidson 跟我讲的是别的生意，那就没什么用，不过他偏偏在讲解保险时，正好击中了我的点。
If Lorimer Davidson had talked to me about some other business, and it wouldn't have done any good, but it just so happened he hit a chord with me on that in explaining it.
我能明白他在说什么，而且 Jack 把 National Indemnity 放出来卖的时候，我也能明白它是什么。
I could understand what he was talking about, and I could understand what National Indemnity was when Jack had it for sale.
这就是生活里有太多偶然，不过如果你一直对好事的偶然保持开放，同时尽量避开坏事的偶然，你知道，总会有些好事发生。
And that's - there's an awful lot of accident in life, but if you keep yourself open to having good accidents happen and kind of get past the bad accidents, you know, some good things will happen.
不一定发生在保险业，你知道，要是你今天重新开始，可能会发生在别的领域，很可能会发生在别的领域。
Not happen in insurance, you know, it can happen in some other field, probably would happen in some other field if you were to start in today.
所以不，我们不可能做到。你不能指望再碰上三件那样的好运事，而且一路上还有很多别的好运。
So no, we could not have - you couldn't expect to have 3 lucky events like that happen, and there were many more along the way.
不过，你知道，如果我们重新开始，我想我们会去做别的事。
But, you know, we'd have - I think if we were starting over again, we'd find something else to do.
Charlie，你怎么看？
What about it, Charlie?
是啊，我觉得我们不会有那种成功。你知道，我们大部分时候买下的都是很棒的生意，然后把它们养大，但再保险部门完全是在奥马哈这里从无到有建立起来的，而且它现在已经是个很大的业务了。
Yeah, well, I don't think we would have that kind of success. You know, mostly we've bought wonderful businesses and nourished them, but the reinsurance division was just created out of whole cloth right here in Omaha, and it's a huge business.
保险对我们来说一直不太一样。
Insurance has been different for us.