M10:11
嗯，就像我解释过的，当我去看最坏情况的各种可能性时，这个头寸其实也没那么大。
Well, as I explained, the position isn't that huge when I look at worst-case possibilities.
我会说，有些事情我觉得发生的概率相当低，我也希望它们不要发生，但这并不意味着它们就不会发生。
I would say that there are things that I think are quite improbable, and I hope they don't happen, but that doesn't mean they won't happen.
比如说，在我们的保险业务里，可能会遇到这个世界上或者这个国家有史以来最严重的飓风，但这并不排除一个月之后又来一场最大的地震。
I mean, for example, in our insurance business, we could have the world's or the country's number one hurricane that it's ever had, but that doesn't preclude the fact we could have the biggest earthquake a month later.
所以我们，我们不会只为某一个单独的问题做准备。
So we, we are not, we don't prepare ourselves for a single problem.
我们做准备，是为了应对那些有时候会自己不断发酵、越滚越大的问题。
We prepare ourselves for problems that, that sometimes create their own momentum.
我的意思是，二零零八年和零九年，第一天你并看不到所有问题。真正把事情引爆的，是九月初 Fannie 和 Freddie，也就是那些 GSEs，被接管进入 conservatorship 的时候。
I mean, 2008 and '09, you didn't see all the problems the first day when, uh, really what kicked it off was when Fannie and Freddie, the GSEs, went into conservatorship in early September.
然后呢，money-market funds 又跌破了一美元净值。
And then when, uh, money-market funds broke the buck.
我的意思是，有些事情会引发别的事情，而我们会非常按最坏情形来考虑，而且那个最坏情形很可能比大多数人设想的还要糟得多。
I mean, there are, there are things that trip other things, and, and we take a very much a worst-case scenario in mind that probably is a considerably worse case than, than most people do.
所以我不觉得这算是巨额，而且我也不是在建议大家今天、明天、下周或者下个月去买股票。
So I don't look at it as, as huge, and I'm not, I'm not recommending that people buy stocks today or tomorrow or next week or next month.
我觉得这完全取决于你自己的情况。但按我的看法，除非你打算把股票持有非常长的一段时间，而且你在财务上和心理上都准备好了，能像持有一个农场那样去持有它，从来不看报价，也根本不去理会它，否则你就不该买股票。
I think it all depends on your circumstances, but you shouldn't buy stocks unless you expect, in my view, to hold them for a very extended period and you are prepared financially and psychologically to hold them the same way you would hold a farm and never look at a quote and never pay any attention to it.
你不需要去盯着它们。
You don't need to pay attention to them.
我的意思是，最重要的是，你不可能抄到最低点，也没有谁能替你抄到底，根本不是这么回事。
I mean, the main thing to do, and you're not going to pick the bottom, and nobody else can pick it for you or anything of the sort.
你买一只股票的时候，必须做好它下跌百分之五十甚至更多的准备，而且只要你对持有它这件事本身是安心的，你就得能接受这种波动。
You've got to be prepared when you buy a stock to have it go down 50% or more and be comfortable with it as long as you're comfortable with the holding.
我记得我在一年以前，也可能是两年前的年报里，呃，也就是最近这一份之前的那一份年报里提到过，Berkshire 的历史上有三次股价下跌了百分之五十。
And I pointed out, I think a year, maybe 2 years ago in the annual report, uh, well, just the one before this most recent one, I pointed out that there have been 3 times in Berkshire's history when the price of Berkshire stock went down 50%.
总共三次，不同的三次。
Three different times.
现在，如果你是借钱持有它的，那你知道，你很可能早就被清出局了。
Now, if you owned it on borrowed money, you know, you could have been cleaned out.
呃，在那三次发生的时候，Berkshire 本身其实并没有什么问题。
Uh, there wasn't anything wrong with Berkshire, uh, when those three times occurred.
但如果你总是盯着股价看，觉得它这样动一下、那样动一下，你就必须采取行动，或者因为别人告诉了你什么你就得行动，我的意思是，那样的话，当别的东西上涨的时候，你怎么可能还拿得住它呢？
But if you're going to, if you're going to look at the price of the stock, uh, and think that you have to act because it's doing this or that, or somebody else tells you why, I mean, how can you stay with that when something else is going up or anything?
你真的必须处在一个正确的心理状态里。
You really have got to be in the right psychological position.
而且坦率地说，有些人确实没那么谨慎。
And frankly, some people are not really careful.
有些人就是比其他人更容易受恐惧影响。
Some people are more subject to fear than, than others.
这就像病毒一样。
It's like the virus.
它袭击有些人的时候，凶猛程度会比袭击另一些人大得多。
It strikes, uh, some people with, uh, much greater ferocity than, than others.
而恐惧，呃，就财务这件事来说，我自己是真的几乎从来没有感受过，我觉得 Charlie 也没有。
And fear is, uh, fear is something I really never felt financially, but I don't think Charlie's felt it either.
有些人在心理上是能扛得住的。
Some people can handle it psychologically.
如果你在心理上扛不住，那你就真的不该持有股票，因为你会在错误的时间买进，也会在错误的时间卖出。
If you can't handle it psychologically, then you really shouldn't own stocks because you're going to buy and sell them at the wrong time.
而且你也不该指望别人来告诉你这些。
And you should not count on somebody else telling you this.
你应该做你自己能理解的事情。
You should do something you understand yourself.
如果你自己都不理解，那你就会被你接下来聊到的那个人影响。
If you don't understand it yourself, you're going to be affected by the next person you talk to.
所以，嗯，你应该让自己处在一个能拿得住的状态。
And, uh, so you should, you should be in a position to hold.
我也不知道今天是不是一个特别适合买股票的日子。
And I don't know whether today is a, a great day to buy stocks.
但我知道，把时间拉到二十年或者三十年来看，结果是会好的。
I know it will work out over 20 or 30 years.
至于两年内到底会不会有好结果，我完全不知道。
I don't know whether it'll work out over 2 years at all.
我根本不知道，你周一早上买的那只股票，或者整个市场，之后到底会让你赚了还是亏了。
I have no idea whether you'll be ahead or behind on a stock you buy on Monday morning or the market.