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2013年股东大会 · 巴芒谈运气,时机与成功

41 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 4:35
M1
M10:00

谢谢。

Thank you.
M2
M20:01

Mark Marzotto,来自 Canada 的 Toronto。

Mark Marzotto, Toronto, Canada.

Bill Gross 最近说过一番话,他说像他那一代投资人——也包括你们二位——成功很大程度上都得归功于时机。

Bill Gross made recent comments that his generation of investors, yourselves included, owed a great deal of their success to timing.

你们同意 Bill 这个说法吗?你们觉得,今天的投资人还会遇到类似的机会吗?

Do you agree with Bill's comment, and do you think a similar opportunity will present itself to today's investors?
M3
M30:19

谢谢。

Thank you.

对,毫无疑问,出生在 United States 对我是个巨大、巨大、巨大的优势。而且就像我最近一篇文章里提到的,生为男性也是个很大的优势。

Yeah, there's no question that being born in the United States was a huge, huge, huge advantage to me, and as I've pointed out in a recent article, being born male was a big advantage.

如果我是个一九三零年出生的女性,那我在投资界或者商业世界里,根本不可能拥有我后来得到的这些机会。

I would not have had the same opportunities in the investment or in the business world remotely that I've had if I'd been a female born in 1930.

当然,时机本来还可以更好一点。

And the timing could have been a little better.

其实,我父亲是个证券销售员。你知道,我是在一九二九年十一月被怀上的,如果你还记得的话,那时候股市已经大幅暴跌了,我父亲几乎都没什么客户可拜访,家里也没有电视之类的东西。

Actually, my dad was a security salesman, and, you know, I was conceived in November 1929, and if you remember, the stocks had gone down dramatically at that time, and there really wasn't anybody to call on for my dad, and there wasn't any television at home or anything.

所以,我就来了。

So here I am, you know.

所以我觉得自己非常幸运。

So I feel myself very lucky.

一九二九年的股灾发生了,而那也带来了整整十年,甚至不止十年,人们对股票非常反感、非常排斥。

That the crash of 1929 came along, and that also provided a decade, more than a decade, of people who were very turned off.

当时先是有相当长一段时间的糟糕商业环境,接着又有十年甚至更久的时间,人们对股票失去了兴趣,就像我们过去也多少经历过那样的十年。

Well, it was a decade of terrible business for quite a while, and then a decade of, or more, of people that were turned off on stocks, just as we sort of had a decade like that in the past.

就是一直到二零一零年前后那十年。

The decade going up to 2010 or so.

很多人都被股票伤透了心。

A lot of people got turned off by stocks.

所以那是个,那个环境其实挺有利的。

So that was, that was a favorable environment.

但 United States 本身就是一个好得惊人的环境。

But the United States itself was an incredibly favorable environment.

如果我早出生五年,我大概会赚更多钱。

If I'd been born 5 years earlier, I probably would have made more money.

但如果我晚出生十年或者十五年,我大概就会赚得少一些。

But if I'd been born 10 or 15 years later, I would have made probably less money.

不过,我很羡慕今天出生在 United States 的婴儿。我的意思是,从概率上讲,我觉得那可能是有史以来最幸运的人。

But I envy the baby that's being born today in the United States. I mean, I think on a probability basis, that's the luckiest individual that's ever been born.

而且我认为,他们在人生的方方面面都会过得很好;从概率上说,会比我出生那个年代的人拥有更好的条件。

And I think that they will do very well in life in all kinds of ways, on a probability basis, better than existed when I was born.

我也认为,他们在投资领域会有机会做得非常好。

And I think they'll have opportunities to do very well in the investment field.

这个领域也许不会像我在一九五零、一九五一年,或者差不多那个时候刚开始时那么好。

It may not be as good a field as it was for me starting in 1950, '51, or thereabouts.

但它仍然会是一个非常好的发展领域。

But it will be a very good field to operate in.

一个今天出生、又真正热爱投资、并且在二十年后成年的人,在我看来,很可能会做得非常好,而且会活得比我们今天好得多,就像我们现在活得远远比很多年前的 John D. Rockefeller 更好一样。

The person that has a passion for investing, born today, coming of age 20 years from now, is likely, in my view, to do very well and to live far better than we live today, just as we live far better than John D. Rockefeller lived many years ago.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M1
M13:16

嗯,你早年刚开始的时候,竞争其实非常弱,我不觉得现在的竞争还有那么弱。

Well, the competition was very weak in your early days, and I don't think the competition is as weak now.

所以我认为,没错,我们当然从时机里得到了优势,但我不觉得这就意味着未来已经没什么可做的了。

So I think, sure, we got advantages from timing, but I don't think that means there's nothing to be done ahead.
M3
M33:40

不过 Charlie,在二零零八年和二零零九年,市场上可是有各种各样高智商、经验非常丰富的专业投资人士。

But Charlie, in 2008 and '09, there were all kinds of high-IQ, highly experienced investment professionals.

我的意思是,成千上万、成千上万、成千上万的人。

I mean, thousands and thousands and thousands of them.

你还投资了 Daily Journal Company,还有在 X 投的一些股票,现在值多少来着,三倍还是四倍了,差不多是那样吧?

And you invested in the Daily Journal Company and some equities at X that are worth, what, 3X or 4X now or something like that?
M1
M14:03

对。

That's right.
M3
M34:04

对,不过,我把那叫做机会,但对他来说,这可能就是家常便饭。

Yeah, well, I call that opportunity, but it may be routine to him.
M1
M14:08

不过,是啊,可我在出手之前,也坐着等了很多年。

But yeah, but I sat for a lot of years before I did it.
M3
M34:14

但这个机会终究还是出现了。

But it still became available.
M1
M14:16

哦,是啊,我,我——不过我刚认识你的时候,你身边机会多得都快淹没你了。

Oh yes, I, I— but you were drowning in opportunities when I first knew you.
M3
M34:23

你可不是在等机会。可惜的是,我不是被钱淹没了。

You were not waiting. I wasn't drowning in money, unfortunately.
M1
M14:28

不是,你缺的是钱。

No, what you lacked was money.
M3
M34:31

对。

Yeah.

好吧,现在我们有钱了,但没点子了。

Well, now we've got money and no ideas.

好,问题十。

Okay, question 10.