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1997年股东大会 · 巴菲特趣谈可口可乐公司的商业史

60 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 7:25
M1
M10:00

我是来自 Georgia 州 Atlanta 的 Everett Peery,我想请问您,能不能谈谈 intrinsic value 这个问题,放到一些“必然赢家”公司身上该怎么看?考虑到现在付价过高的风险很高,而且它们还在进行 share repurchase。

I'm Everett Peery from Atlanta, Georgia, and I wanted to ask you if you could comment on the matter of intrinsic value as it applies to some of the inevitables, given that the overpayment risk now is high and the share repurchases that are going on there.
M2
M20:19

对,不过我们不会给它们定一个具体价格。

Yeah, well, we won't stick a price on them.

我们只是告诉你,这些都是非常非常棒的企业,而且是由杰出得不得了的人在经营。

We just— we tell you that they are absolutely wonderful businesses run by sensational people.

而且它们现在的卖价,确实比过去大多数时候都要高。

And that they are selling at prices that are higher than they sold at most of the time.

但是呢,你也知道,它们很可能还是值这个价,甚至按今天的角度看,还远远不止这个价;当然,也可能只是它们把未来两三年的表现提前反映了。

And then— but that, you know, they may be— they may well be worth it and worth a lot more even in present terms, or it may turn out they're a couple of years ahead of themselves.

这个答案我们并不知道。

We don't know the answer to that.

我们只知道,我们非常高兴,非常高兴持有它们。

We know we're very happy, happy owning them.

Gillette 并不回购自己的股票,或者说很多年来都没有大规模这么做。

Gillette does not repurchase its shares, or hasn't in any significant quantity for many years.

Coke 则是一贯持续回购自己的股票。

Coke consistently repurchases its shares.

一般来说,我们喜欢那种真正了不起的企业去回购自己的股票。

We generally like the policy of companies that have really wonderful businesses repurchasing their shares.
M3
M31:07

这个——

It's—.
M2
M21:07

世界上真正顶级的好生意并没有那么多,而随着时间推移,能够拥有这样一家公司越来越多的份额,这个想法对我们很有吸引力,几乎可以说,不管价格如何,都有吸引力。

There aren't that many super businesses in the world, and the idea of owning more and more of a company like that over a period of time has an appeal to us, and almost an appeal regardless of price.

但问题在于,大多数回购自己股票的公司,你知道,业务也就那样——往往只是普普通通的生意,而且它们这么做的动机,并不是为了让股东在一家卓越企业中的权益变得更集中。

But the problem is that most companies that repurchase their shares, you know, are so-so— are frequently so-so businesses, and they're being done for motivations other than intensifying the interests of the shareholders in a wonderful business.

但如果你真的知道自己拥有的是一家卓越企业——而我们觉得我们持有的大多数公司,至少都在非常好到卓越这个区间——那我们认为,这么做通常是很有道理的。这个世界上,想把钱用得聪明其实很难,而 Coke 在资本运用上一直非常聪明,尤其是在全球范围内巩固和改善它们的 bottler network 这件事上。

But where you really know you have a wonderful business— and we think most of the ones we own are anywhere from extremely good to wonderful— we think it usually makes a lot of sense. It's hard to do things intelligently with money in this world, and Coke has been very intelligent about using their capital to particularly fortify and improve their bottler network around the world.

我是说,它们在这方面做得特别出色。

I mean, they've done a terrific job that way.

那块领域曾经长期被忽视。

That was a neglected area for a long time.

当然,那得放在第一位,但这件事做到一定程度也就差不多了。

And that comes first, but there's only so far you can go with that.

而回购则能提升股东在像 Coca-Cola 这样的公司里的持股权益。

To enhance the ownership of the shareholders in a company like Coca-Cola.

我们在八八年第一次买入 Coca-Cola 的时候,大概买下了这家公司百分之六点二的股份。

When we bought our first Coca-Cola in '88, we bought about 6.2% of the company.

那时候,他们一天的销量大概是六亿杯左右,应该不会比这更多。

And at that time, they may have been— may have been 600 million servings, not any more than that a day.

所以,我们当时对应的权益,大概就是三千六百万到三千七百万杯。

So we had an interest in 36 or 37 million servings.

现在我们持有的是九亿多杯里的百分之八,所以我们对应的权益,大概是每天七千五百万杯左右。

Now we have 8% of 900 million plus, so we have an interest in 75 million or so servings a day.

也就是说,今天有七千五百万人在喝属于 Berkshire Hathaway 那一份的 Coca-Cola 产品,每人一杯八盎司。

75 million people are drinking Berkshire Hathaway's share of Coca-Cola products today, an 8-ounce serving.

而且你知道,每杯的利润还稍微提高了一点,所以这就变得相当有吸引力了。

You know, and the profit's gone up a little per serving, so that gets pretty attractive.

我们就假设他们会继续这么做下去。

And we just assume they keep doing that.

其实这个 bottling 的事情还挺有意思的。

The bottling thing is actually kind of interesting.

有一位来自 Omaha 的先生,或者至少在 Omaha 住了很久,Don Keough,在这件事上起了很大作用。

And a fellow from Omaha, or at least lived in Omaha for a long time, Don Keough, had a lot to do with this.

当然,Roberto 也明显发挥了很大作用,不过再往前说,Candler——Asa Candler,在十九世纪八十年代末,通过一连串交易——具体时间点我想有些地方已经有点模糊了——但本质上,他是用两千美元买下了整个 Coca-Cola Company。

Roberto had plenty to do with it too, obviously, but Candler— Asa Candler, back in the late 1880s, in a series of transactions— I think some of it's a little fuzzy exactly as to the timing of them, but he essentially bought the whole Coca-Cola Company for $2,000.

那可能是世界历史上最聪明的一笔收购。

And that may be the smartest purchase in the history of the world.
M3
M33:35

对。

Yeah.
M2
M23:36

然后到了一八九九年,我记得是那年吧,有两个 Chattanooga 来的人到了这儿。

And then in 1899, I believe it was, a couple of fellows from Chattanooga came down.

那时候,soft drink 主要是在 drugstore 里隔着柜台卖给顾客的,不过当时也已经有一点装瓶业务了。

And in those days, soft drinks were sold over the counter to people in, in drugstores primarily, but there was a little bottling going on.

我记得那时候,Mississippi 已经有人在做装瓶了。

There already was somebody bottling in Mississippi, as I remember.

不过有两个家伙过来说,你知道,装瓶这个事是有前途的,而你们现在正忙着做 fountain 那一块的生意。

But a couple fellows came down and they said, you know, bottling's got a future, and you're busy on the fountain side of the business.

所以,为什么不让我们来把这个 bottling system 发展起来呢?

So why don't you let us develop the bottling system?

我猜 Mr. Candler 当时并没太把装瓶当回事,所以他给了他们一份几乎覆盖全美国的永久合同。

And I guess Mr. Candler didn't think much of bottling, so he gave them a contract in perpetuity for almost all of the United States.

他用一美元就把这个卖给了他们,还给了他们永远按固定价格购买 Coca-Cola syrup 的权利。

For a dollar, he sold it to them and gave them the right to buy Coca-Cola syrup at a fixed price forever.

所以,Asa 靠着他那两千美元已经大赚了一笔,但后来还是写下了一份——你知道,我们现在回头看当然很容易——但怎么看都像是历史上最愚蠢的合同之一。

So Asa, who had scored with his $2,000 in a rather big way, managed to write what, you know, it's easy for us to look back at, but certainly looks like one of the dumbest contracts in history.

当然,随着时间过去,尤其到第一次世界大战前后,syrup 的价格出了问题——从成本上说,syrup 最主要的原料是 sugar。

And of course, as the years went by, and particularly around World War I, when the price of syrup—the primary ingredient in terms of cost in syrup was sugar.

而在第一次世界大战期间和战后,sugar 的价格简直疯涨。

And sugar went wild during and after World War I in price.

所以,这里就有个人,实际上等于是签了个永远按固定价格卖 sugar 的合同。

And so here was a guy that in effect had contracted to sell sugar at a fixed price forever.

而且他还给了这些人永久性的权利,诸如此类。

And he'd also given these people perpetual rights and so on.

那时候,他们会把这些次级权利再卖成 bottler contract,而这些合同通常覆盖的范围,就是一匹马一天能跑出去再跑回来的距离。

In those days, they sold these sub-rights to bottler contracts, and those were usually the distance that a horse could go in a day and come back.

大概就是给人划这么一个圈。

That was sort of the circle that you gave people.

而多年来,Coca-Cola Company 一直面临一个问题:这个 bottling system 很快就成了 Coke 最主要的分销体系,但它却受制于一种合同——价格完全没有调整弹性,而且合同还是永久有效的。

And the Coca-Cola Company was faced over the years with a problem of having these—the bottling system, which soon became the dominant system for distribution of Coke, being subject to a contract where there was no price flexibility and where the contracts ran in perpetuity.

当然,每个 bottler 到了临终的时候,都会把自己的孩子、孙子都叫到床边,自己撑着坐起来,用最后一口气嘶哑地说一句,你们可别让他们动这个 bottling contract,知道吧,然后他就咽气了。

And of course, every bottler on his deathbed would call his children and his grandchildren around, and he'd prop himself up and croak out in his last breath, you know, don't let them screw with the bottling contract, you know, and then he'd croak.

所以,几十年来 Coca-Cola Company 一直受这个问题困扰,很长一段时间里,他们对这个 bottling system 其实也做不了太多。

And so the Coca-Cola Company faced this for decades, and they really couldn't do much about that bottling system for a long time.

后来,Roberto、Don Keough 还有其他一些人,花了二十年到二十五年的时间,才把这套东西理顺。

And, and, and Roberto and Don Keough and some other people spent 20 or 25 years getting that rationalized.

二十年代的时候还打过官司之类的,总之这是一个非常非常大的工程。

There were lawsuits back in the '20s and some things, but it was a huge, huge project.

不过,随着时间推移,这件事对公司的价值产生了极其巨大的影响。

But it made an enormous difference over time in the value of the company.

这就是我说的 intellectual capital 的意思,因为你知道,如果你要着手把这整套东西理顺,你不可能在一天、一周、一个月,甚至一年里就看到结果。

And that's what I mean when I talk about intellectual capital, is because you know you aren't going to get results on that in a day or a week or a month or a year if you set out to, to get that all rationalized.

但是他们认定了,要把事情做成,就必须这么干。

But, but they decided that to get the job done, they had to do this.

这当然需要 capital,他们也确实用了 capital 来完成这件事,不过除此之外,他们还拿 capital 大规模回购了股票。

And that took capital, and they used capital to get that job done, but they used capital beyond that to repurchase shares in a big way.

而这一直都非常聪明。

And it's been very smart.

我也希望他们——你知道,我——我们现在说话这会儿,他们可能都还在回购股票,这对我来说挺好。

And I hope they—you know, I—they are repurchasing shares probably as we talk, and that's, that's fine with me.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M36:57

嗯,我确实认为 Coca-Cola Company 是商业史上最有意思的案例之一,而且它值得被研究的程度,应该远远超过现在。

Well, I do think Coca-Cola Company is one of the most interesting cases in the history of business, and it ought to be way more studied than it is.

Coca-Cola Company 的历史里,真的是一课接一课,一课接一课,全都是教训和启发。

And there's just lesson after lesson after lesson in the history of the Coca-Cola Company.

不过,呃,这个故事今天讲起来就太长了。

And, uh, but it's too long a story for today.
M2
M27:24

第二部分。

Section 2.