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The New Problems AI Is Creating (And How People Are Solving Them)

283 段 · 1 位说话人 · 原片 28:58
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去年这个时候,AI 还是一个很不一样的局面。

Last year at this time, AI was a very different place.

GPT-5 刚刚发布,但几乎没有得到什么好评。

GPT-5 had just launched to not much acclaim at all.

大家对 GPT-4o 要被弃用这件事非常不满,而且说实话,围绕 AI 泡沫可能性的讨论和担忧也越来越多。

People were really upset that GPT-4o was being deprecated, and there was so much growing conversation and consternation, frankly, about the potential of an AI bubble.

除此之外,还有一些公司仍然在试图说服自己,AI 被过度炒作了,而且根本不会成什么气候。

And on top of all that, there were some companies out there that were still trying to convince themselves that AI was overhyped and just not going to be a thing.

现在,一年过去了,讨论已经完全不一样了。

Now, a year on from that, the conversation is very different.

不只是模型进步了,不只是使用场景转向了 agentic,开始兑现多年来一直潜藏着的承诺;那些正在利用 AI 的企业,在提出的问题上也变得成熟得多。

Not only have the models advanced, not only have the use cases shifted to the agentic, living up to the promise that's been lurking for years, but the businesses that are harnessing AI have gotten so much more sophisticated in the questions they're asking.

事实上,在过去一年里,很多情况下我们已经从连正确的问题都还没问出来,发展到开始积极解决一些新问题,而这些新问题正是随着 agentic AI 带来的新工作模式出现的。

In fact, over the last year, we've gone from, in many cases, not even asking the right questions to actively solving the new problems that emerge for new work patterns that come alongside specifically agentic AI.

生产太容易,导致了 AI slop 问题?

Easy production causing an AI slop problem?

那就制定一套新的 AI 写作政策。

Institute a new AI writing policy.

顶级模型用得太多,成本太高?

Overusage of top models costing too much?

那就想出新的办法,把 tokens 和 intelligence 分配到组织里的不同部分。

Come up with new ways to allocate tokens and intelligence to different parts of the organization.

今天,我们不仅要深入聊聊 AI 目前面临的挑战,还要聊聊公司实际上是怎么解决这些问题的。

Today, we're going to dig into not only the current challenges of AI, but how companies are actually solving them.

The AI Daily Brief 是一档每日更新的 podcast 和视频节目,关注 AI 领域最重要的新闻和讨论。

The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI.

好了,朋友们,开始之前先快速说几个通知。

All right, friends, quick announcements before we dive in.
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我喜欢我们现在所处的这个 AI 时刻,其中一点是:我们已经走过了第一波很多可以说没那么有用的讨论。

One of the things that I like about this moment that we're in with AI is that we're through the first wave of a lot of, call it, less than useful conversations.

即使在去年的这个时候,关于 AI 这东西到底会不会成气候,仍然有大量争论。

Even at this time last year, there was still a ton of debate about whether this AI thing was gonna be a thing.

当然了,在我们这边,这其实并不算什么争论,但你还是能看到各地的企业多少还抱着一种希望,希望这只不过又是一个趋势,而他们因为没有深入投入进去,反而会得到回报。

Now, of course, that wasn't really a debate around these parts, but you still had enterprises all over the place kind of holding out hope that this would just be yet another trend that they would be rewarded for not having dug in around.

当然,现在来看,事情并没有这样发展。

Now, of course, that is not how it has played out.

在过去一年里,尤其是过去八个月里,我们一路飞速穿过了 AI 的第一阶段,进入了 agentic 时代,并且带来了各种相伴而来的后果。

And in the past year, and especially the past eight months, we have rocketed right on through the first stage of AI into the agentic era with all sorts of attendant consequences.

现在正在发生的很多事情都非常强大。

Now, a lot of what's happening now is incredibly powerful.

各种规模、各种类型的企业内部,很多工作都在于搞清楚怎样利用那些以前根本不存在的能力。

A lot of the work inside businesses of all shapes and sizes is figuring out how to take advantage of capabilities that simply were not there before.

然而,任何新技术,包括 AI 在内,无论多么强大,都不可能只是在解决问题。

And yet no new technology, AI included, is solely in the business of solving problems, no matter how powerful it is.

相反,新技术会解决很多旧问题,同时在很多情况下,也会通过它们创造出的机会带来新的挑战。

Instead, new technologies solve lots of old problems while, in many cases, through the opportunities they create, also creating new challenges.

所以当我们讨论 bot-sitting 或者 AI slop 这样的话题时,我们其实就是在认真讨论:该怎么处理那些伴随 AI 机会一起出现的问题。

And when we discuss topics like bot-sitting or AI slop, we are firmly then in the discussion of how to deal with the problems that come along with AI's opportunities.

今天,我们会看看公司和企业,尤其是在 AI 方面的思考方式发生了哪些变化,以及他们正在做什么来解决其中一些问题。

Today, we're going to look at a bunch of changes in how companies and businesses specifically are thinking about AI and what they're doing to solve some of those problems.

为了开启这个话题,我们会先从 EY 的一篇文章讲起,题目叫《Four AI Misconceptions That Deserve Greater Scrutiny》,并且会特别关注前三个误解。

And by way of kicking off the conversation, we're going to start with a piece from EY called "Four AI Misconceptions That Deserve Greater Scrutiny," with a specific focus on the first three.

我觉得这些都是很好的例子,说明围绕这些事情的主流看法正在迅速转变,而且是在向好的方向转变。

I think these are great examples of things the conventional wisdom around which is quickly shifting and shifting for the better.

EY 指出的第一个误解是:AI 会立刻带来一轮生产力繁荣。

The first misconception that EY points out is that AI will immediately generate a productivity boom.

他们写道,认为 AI 会立刻带来生产力激增的这个假设,很难和经济史相吻合。

They write, the assumption that AI will immediately generate a surge in productivity is difficult to reconcile with economic history.

重大的技术革命很少会在一夜之间带来整个经济范围内的收益。

Major technological revolutions rarely produce economy-wide gains overnight.

蒸汽机用了将近一个世纪,才在英国转化为持续的生产率增长;电力用了大约五十年,才重塑工业生产;而计算机革命也用了差不多十年,才在整体生产率上带来可衡量的提升。

It took nearly a century for the steam engine to translate into sustained productivity growth in Britain, roughly five decades for electricity to reshape industrial production, and close to a decade before the computer revolution produced measurable improvements in aggregate productivity.

他们解释说,任何技术革命的第一阶段,都是建设支撑它的基础设施。

The first stage, they explain, of any technology revolution is the buildout of the infrastructure that enables it.

就 AI 来说,这意味着要扩建数据中心、半导体制造、电力生产、云计算能力,以及数字基础设施。

In the case of AI, that means expanding data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, electricity generation, cloud computing capacity, and digital infrastructure.

在这些技术能够扩散到更广泛的经济领域之前,还需要培养部署和管理这些技术所需的人才。

It also requires developing the talent needed to deploy and manage these technologies before they can diffuse across the broader economy.

所以在这一部分,EY 其实是在用两种非常不同的方式谈生产率。

So in this section, EY is talking about productivity in two very different ways.

他们谈的是那种会体现在整体宏观经济数字里的、可衡量的生产率;但我觉得,至少对我们这次讨论来说,更相关的部分,是组织内部立刻出现的生产率爆发。

They're talking about measurable productivity showing up in overall macroeconomic numbers, but I think that the more relevant part for our discussion, at least, is an immediate boom in productivity inside the organization.

我认为,大多数组织正在发现的是,AI 的能力是参差不齐的,AI 带来的生产率提升同样也是参差不齐的。

I believe that what most organizations are finding is that just like the capabilities of AI are jagged, so too is the productivity enhancement of AI.

有些领域,只要一个组织在 AI 上投入过哪怕一点时间,收益就会立刻显现,而且非常清楚、非常巨大。

There are areas which, for any organization that has invested any amount of time in AI, the gains are just immediate and transparent and huge.

但也有一些领域,即使人们相信 AI 最终会影响到那里,它们依然顽固地停留在过去一贯的做事方式里。

There are other areas where, even if one believes AI will impact that area eventually, they remain stubbornly stuck in the way that they'd always done things.

此外,组织还在经历一个混乱、复杂、又耗时的过程:弄清楚如何把新的 agentic 工作方式,和新型的人类监督与管理结合起来。

Moreover, organizations are going through the messy and complicated and time-consuming process of figuring out how to integrate new ways of agentic working with new types of human oversight and management.

我们并没有看到有些人想象中的那种一对一切换,也就是从人类做工作,直接变成 agents 做工作。

We're not seeing the sort of one-to-one switch from humans doing jobs to agents doing jobs that some people imagine we would.

所以,弄清楚如何利用所有这些新机会,本身又创造出了一整套新的工作;至少在短期内,在很多情况下,这些新工作会填满你原本因为之前任务生产率提高而省下来的时间。

And so figuring out how to take advantage of all the new opportunity creates a whole new set of work that in the short term, at least in many cases, fills in any time gains that you otherwise would've won from productivity in previous tasks.

这并不是说这一切都互相抵消了,也不是说生产率最终会保持不变。

Which is not to say that this is all a wash and that productivity is going to be neutral.

我们非常明显地处在一个过渡阶段,而在通往新常态、通往新的做事方式的路上,就是会有海量的工作要做。

We are very clearly in a transitional phase, and there's just going to be an immense amount of work on the path to the new norms and how we do things.

总体来说,我接触到的组织都已经完全接受了这个事实,现在正在一个一个地解决这些挑战,这样它们才能真正利用好 AI,而不是坐在那里哀叹为什么没有从 AI 身上得到自己期望的那么多。

By and large, the organizations that I'm interacting with have fully embraced that fact and are now trying to work one by one through those challenges so that they can really take advantage of AI rather than sitting around lamenting why they're not getting as much as they hoped from it.

EY 指出的第二个误解,是围绕这个话题更进阶的讨论中的一个关键部分;对我们 AI Daily Brief 来说,尤其是在今年年中的那段时间,它一直是我们讨论的核心内容之一。

The second misconception that EY points out is one that the more advanced version of the conversation around this has been a key part of the discourse for us here at the AI Daily Brief, especially throughout the middle part of this year.

那就是一个误解:AI 几乎是免费的。

That is the misconception that AI is nearly free.

他们写道,认为采用 AI 成本很低,这种假设忽视了一个重要的经济现实。

They write, the assumption that AI adoption is inexpensive overlooks an important economic reality.

不同于传统的企业软件,AI 每次被使用时,都会产生实实在在的边际成本。

Unlike traditional enterprise software, AI carries a meaningful marginal cost every time it is used.

对很多企业来说,许可证、基础设施和培训上的初始投入,仅仅只是开始。

For many businesses, the initial investment in licenses, infrastructure, and training is only the beginning.

每一次 prompt 都会消耗 tokens、算力和电力。

Every prompt consumes tokens, computing power, and electricity.

随着 AI 被嵌入到组织的各个环节,成本会迅速累积,把 AI 从一次性的技术投资,变成一项经常性的运营开支。

As AI becomes embedded across organizations, costs accumulate rapidly, transforming AI from a one-time technology investment into a recurring operating expense.

很多早期采用者已经在发现这个现实。

Many early adopters are already discovering this reality.

有几家公司报告说,由于员工使用量超出预期,年度 AI 预算在几个月内就被用完了,于是不得不引入 token 预算、使用上限,以及更严格的治理。

Several firms have reported exhausting annual AI budgets within months as employee usage exceeds expectations, prompting the introduction of token budgets, usage caps, and tighter governance.

与此同时,frontier AI providers 还在不断推出能力更强的 reasoning models,而这些模型更高的性能,往往伴随着更高的 token 消耗和更大的运营成本。

At the same time, frontier AI providers continue to introduce more capable reasoning models, whose greater performance often comes with higher token consumption and greater operating costs.

他们写道,回头看,新技术的扩散,受到的限制与其说是技术能力,不如说是部署经济性。

Looking back, they write, the diffusion of new technologies is constrained less by technological capability than by the economics of deployment.

AI 也不会例外。

AI will be no exception.

采用速度不仅取决于这项技术能做什么,还取决于每一个 token 创造的价值是否超过它的成本。

The pace of adoption will depend not only on what the technology can do, but whether the value created by each token exceeds its cost.

他们说,这背后的含义很清楚:AI 应该像任何其他资本配置一样来管理。

They say that the implication is clear that AI should be managed like any other capital allocation.

我觉得这个所谓的“误解”有意思的地方在于,它其实早就已经在一步步逼近了;只不过到了今年,我们终于生活在这个我们早就知道会到来的现实里。

Now, I think what's interesting about this quote-unquote misconception is that this has long been coming down the pipeline, and it's just that this year we are finally living in the reality that we knew was on its way.

在 ChatGPT 出现之后,AI 发展的最初几年里,各个组织还可以把它当成又一个 SaaS 订阅来对待。

For the first few years of AI's life post-ChatGPT, organizations could get away with treating it like another SaaS subscription.

价值这笔账就是:员工人数乘以每个席位每月的成本,再乘以一年十二个月,然后看这个数是不是低于大家创造出来的价值。

The value equation was headcount times the cost of a seat per month times 12 months in a year, and does that come out to less than the value that's being created by folks?

不过,agentic AI 当然彻底改变了这个等式,让它不再那么像软件,而更像一种新型劳动力。

However, agentic AI of course totally changes that equation, making it less like software and more like a new type of labor.

现在,我并不认为这对各个组织来说是什么令人震惊的意外。

Now, I don't think that this came as some shocking surprise to organizations.

我觉得如果说有什么让人意外的话,那就是尤其是那些被赋权的员工,实际消耗大量而且昂贵的 AI token 的速度有多快。

I think if anything was surprising, it was the speed at which enfranchised employees especially could actually burn through significant and expensive amounts of those AI tokens.

这一点比其他任何事情都更能为 AI 接下来必须回答的一整套问题和挑战设定背景。

This more than anything has set the context for all of the next set of questions and challenges that AI has to answer.

但媒体围绕这件事的讨论,说实话,真的让人火大。

But the media discourse around this is honestly just infuriating.

这种讨论往往把企业说得像一群无能的乡巴佬,好像有一天醒来才震惊地发现,AI 和他们原来以为的东西完全不一样。

It tends to treat enterprises like they're some incompetent bumpkins who wake up one day shocked to discover that AI is totally different than the thing they thought it was.

这些讨论把 token 预算和使用上限之类的东西,描述成企业在疯狂追赶一列已经失控的火车。

The discourse presents things like token budgets and usage caps as these frantic attempts to catch up with a train that's running off the tracks.

但真实世界里的真实组织,事情根本不是这样发展的。

None of that is how this is playing out for real organizations in the real world.

基本上,我在任何规模的组织里接触过的、只要对 AI 稍微认真一点的人都明白,这是一个新的挑战;事情已经不再像以前那么简单,不是把最强大的模型丢给他们所有的问题,不管问题有多难就行;他们需要为不同类型的问题,真正搭建一套完整的架构,里面包括不同类型的模型和不同类型的结构。

Pretty much everyone that I've interacted with at any point in any organization of any size who has any sort of seriousness around AI gets that this is a new challenge, that it's not as simple anymore as just pointing the most powerful model at all of their problems, no matter how hard they are, that they're going to need to put together an actual complete architecture of different types of models and different types of structures for different types of problems.

而且组织内部不同的人,需要获得不同数量、不同能力级别的智能。

And that different people within the organization are going to need to have access to different amounts and powers of intelligence.

你们一直听说的那些给使用量和 token 预算设上限的组织,并不是这么做完之后就把手指塞进耳朵里说,别跟我讲。

These organizations that you keep hearing about that slap usage caps and token budgets on things, they're not doing that and then sticking their fingers in their ears and saying, don't talk to me.

他们同时也都在建立路径,让人们可以申请更多预算,或者证明自己配得上更多预算。

They're all at the same time creating pathways for people to apply for more budgets or demonstrate that they deserve it.

事实上,如果说有什么值得注意的话,那就是各个组织适应这套新挑战的速度,应该让人对整个企业界非常受鼓舞。

In fact, if anything, the speed with which organizations are adapting to this being the new challenge set should be extremely encouraging for the corporate sector overall.

我认为,企业部门这么快就转向并理解这是他们面对的新挑战,这非常值得肯定,也说明这件事并不是突然从天而降;过去几年里,他们至少在会议、圆桌讨论和意识层面,已经一直在为这个新的 agentic 阶段做准备。

I think the fact that the enterprise sector has pivoted so fast to understand that this is the new challenge that they face is hugely to their credit and representative of the fact that this didn't come out of left field and that they've spent the last couple of years preparing, at least in terms of meetings and roundtables and awareness, for this new agentic period.

但这就把我们带到了第三个误解:AI 会让劳动力变得多余。

But that gets us to misconception number three, that AI will make labor redundant.

这就有点偏离我们今天的话题了,也就是 AI 带来的、公司正在解决的新问题,因为这个说法就是彻头彻尾错的。

Now, this gets a little bit off our topic of the new problems that come with AI that companies are solving, because this is just straight up wrong.

它其实不是一个需要解决的问题,因为它根本就不是一个问题。

It's not actually a problem to be solved because it's not actually a problem.

过去几年里,有两类人一直非常坚决地说 AI 会让劳动力变得多余。

There are two groups who over the last few years have been adamant about AI making labor redundant.

第一类是领先 AI labs 的领导层,他们把不成比例的媒体曝光都花在谈这件事上,尽管最近至少其中一些人已经开始试图收回这种说法。

Group one is the leadership at the leading AI labs who have spent a disproportionate amount of their media space talking about exactly this, although at least some of them have been trying to walk it back of late.

第二类一直相信这一点的人,我其实甚至不相信他们真的曾经相信过;那就是那些需要好借口来解释自己为什么裁员的商业领袖。

The second group who have been convinced of this, I don't actually even believe were ever actually convinced of this, and that is the business leaders who have needed good excuses for why they were laying people off.

我当然相信,任何老听众都知道,AI 会影响工作和职业的形态,也会对劳动力市场产生影响。

I certainly believe, as any regular listeners will know, that AI is going to impact the shape of jobs and professions and will have labor market impacts.

但我认为,过去一年左右,有些公司把百分之四十甚至更多的裁员归咎于 AI,这完全就是胡扯。

I think that companies over the last year or so blaming 40% or more of their layoffs on AI is a complete and utter crock.

那只是一个市场愿意买账、愿意接受的方便借口。

That's just a convenient excuse that the market would buy and accept.

就像我在最近一期节目里说的,我觉得这个借口现在已经不管用了。

As I said in a recent episode, I don't think that that excuse is working anymore.

而且我认为,你看到越多公司不得不把之前解雇的人再招回来的故事,就越会给这个误解的心脏永远插上一刀。

And I think the more stories you see of people having to hire back people that they fired will just put a dagger in this misconception's heart forever.

但就像我说的,我感兴趣的不只是这些误解,而是大家意识到 AI 创造出了一整套新的挑战,以及人们正在如何应对这些挑战。

But like I said, what I'm interested in is not just these misconceptions, but the awareness that AI creates a set of new challenges and the way that people are dealing with them.

所以现在我们来谈谈 AI 出现后随之而来的一个大问题,也就是大量糟糕的 AI 写作泛滥。

So let's now talk about one of the big problems that has come alongside the advent of AI, which is a flood of terrible AI writing.

一开始真的很酷,AI 居然能围绕你提出的任何具体想法或任务,产出那么多文字,而且看起来甚至还挺有说服力。

It was very cool early on just how many words, and seemingly compelling words even, AI could put forward around any particular idea or task you had.

当然,人们都想尽可能快地把尽可能多的工作做完,然后去忙别的事,不管是更多工作,还是完全不同的事情,所以大家真的在不断试探,看看 AI 写作到底能用来做多少事。

People, of course, being driven by their desire to get as much work done as fast as they possibly can and be on to other things, whether it's more work or something else entirely, have really stretched to see just how many things they can use AI writing for.

现在,这种模式当然也蔓延到了社交平台上,而这些平台都在处理各自版本的 AI 垃圾内容问题。

Now, this pattern has, of course, made it onto the social platforms as well, who are all dealing with their own versions of AI slop problems.

这件事之所以从来没有像让其他一些人那样让我那么焦虑,其中一个原因是,在我看来一直很明显,机构或者社会层面的免疫系统会对此做出反应。而这正是你现在开始看到的情况。

One of the reasons that this has never stressed me out as much as it has for some others is that it's always seemed pretty clear that institutional or social immune systems were going to create a response. And that's what you're starting to see.

你会看到 AI 检测工具开始出现在 Substack 这样的平台上,虽然我对此仍然非常怀疑。

You're seeing AI detectors pop up in places like Substack, although I remain very skeptical there.

但你也会看到一些更有利于社群的做法,比如 LinkedIn 帖子上那个新按钮,你可以点击表示你正在读的某些内容,引用一下,‘看起来像 AI 垃圾内容’。

But you're also seeing more pro-social approaches to this, such as the new button on LinkedIn posts where you can click that something that you're reading, quote, seems like AI slop.

像这样的系统出现得越多,人们就越没有动力去制造 AI 垃圾内容,也越不容易在使用 AI 写作时偷懒。

The more systems like that that emerge, the less of an incentive there is to produce AI slop and be lazy in how we use AI to write.

而且,出现这类回应的地方不只是社交网络。

And it's not just on the social networks that those sort of responses are emerging.

你也开始在公司内部看到这种变化。

You're starting to see it inside companies as well.

Clay 的联合创始人 Varun Anand 就在这周发帖说,公司已经在他们组织内部制定了一项正式的 AI 写作政策。

Varun Anand, the co-founder of Clay, just posted this week that the company had instituted an official AI writing policy at their organization.

有意思的是,一开始这项政策只针对工程团队,但其他团队觉得它很有帮助,于是他们把它扩展成了全公司的政策。

Interestingly, originally it was just for the engineering organization, but other teams found it helpful enough that they expanded it to a company-wide policy.

这四条指导原则里,第一条是,当你写下某些内容时,你必须为其中的每一个观点、每一句话负责。

The four guiding principles were first, that when you write something, you have to stand behind every idea and sentence.

用 Varun 的说法,在你分享之前,你有责任确保整份文档都代表的是你自己的想法。

As Varun puts it, it is your responsibility to make sure that the entire document is representative of your own thoughts before you share it.

第二条原则是,写作就是思考——花时间经历写作过程,会让你更了解自己的主题;如果你绕过这个过程,你对这个主题的理解就会更浅。

The second principle is that writing is thinking—that spending time on the writing process teaches you more about your topic, and that if you circumvent that process, you will walk away with a poorer understanding of the subject matter.

第三条原则是,写一份文档所花的时间,应该比阅读它所花的时间更多。

The third principle is that more time should be spent writing a document than consuming it.

他说,如果你用一个很短的 prompt 生成一份文档,然后要求读者去读那份更长的输出,那就是不尊重他们的时间。

If you generate a document from a short prompt, he says, then ask your readers to go through the longer output, you are disrespecting their time.

如果他们愿意,他们自己也可以去跟 ChatGPT 对话。

They can talk to ChatGPT themselves if they want to.

第四,也是最后一点,更长并不等于更好。

And fourth and finally, longer is not better.

他指出,AI 让生成长文档变得很容易,而且它很喜欢往里面塞那些什么也没说的句子。

AI, he notes, makes it easy to generate long docs, and it loves padding them with sentences that say nothing.

如果你是用一个很短的 prompt 生成文档,那不如考虑直接分享那个 prompt。

If you're producing docs from a short prompt, consider just sharing the prompt.

现在,你会注意到,这里并不是在说不要使用 AI。

Now, what you'll notice about this is that this does not say don't use AI.

它并没有因为人们使用 AI,就给他们打上一个耻辱的标记。

It doesn't brand people with a scarlet letter for using AI.

它甚至也没有制造一种反对使用 AI 的微妙社会压力。

It doesn't even create subtle social pressure against using AI.

这是一条告诫:不要偷懒,要意识到,在很多情况下,产出某个东西的过程,和它最终创造出来的结果一样有价值。

This is an injunction to not be lazy, to appreciate that the process of producing something is as valuable in many cases as the output it creates.

在这一点上,它正是一个完美的例子,说明我们正在如何解决 AI 带来的新挑战,而这些挑战现在在我们的公司和组织里,实际上是不可避免的。

And in that, it is a perfect example of how we are solving the new challenges of AI, which are inevitable in practice right now inside our companies and organizations.

而且,Varun 把整份政策都发了出来。考虑到已经有八千三百七十七个人给它点赞、鼓掌或者点了爱心,你完全可以相信,未来几周,这类政策会出现在更多组织里。

What's more, Varun dropped the entire policy, and given the fact that 8,377 people have liked or applauded or hearted the thing, you better believe that this type of policy is going to show up at a lot more organizations in the weeks to come.

那么,单靠这些就能挡住 AI 垃圾内容的浪潮吗?

Now, does this all on its own turn back the tide of AI slop?

当然不能!

Of course not!

但社会规范和职业规范可以很快适应——我觉得,甚至比我们有时预期的还要快。

But social and professional norms can adapt quickly—more quickly, I think, than we sometimes even expect.
M1
M115:16

我每天都在这个节目里讨论 AI 的潜力和 AI 的现实之间的能力差距。

I cover the capability gap between AI potential and AI reality every day on this show.

大多数公司仍然还在摸索该怎么开始。

Most companies are still figuring out how to start.
M1
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让 AI 如此令人兴奋的一部分原因在于,它是一种全新的体验,而我们所有人都在同一时间一起经历它。所以很多人都在一路分享他们的最佳实践和学到的东西,这样大家就不用一遍又一遍地犯同样的错误。

And part of what makes AI so exciting is that because it is this new experience that we are all going through together at the same time, so many people are sharing their best practices and learnings on the way so that everyone doesn't have to make the same mistakes over and over.

随便哪一周,你都可以刷 LinkedIn,或者基本上任何其他社交渠道,看到一大堆来自企业或商业领袖的文章,分享他们最近弄明白的、关于怎么让 AI 为自己所用的新经验,同时也很明确地说明,现在还没有人完全知道这件事到底该怎么做。

On any given week, you can go through LinkedIn or basically any other social channel and find a slew of articles from corporate or business leaders sharing the latest things that they have figured out about how to make AI work for them and putting a fine point on the fact that no one yet perfectly knows how to do this.

很多时候,这些评论本身就来自正在创造 AI 的那些 labs。

A lot of times that commentary is coming from the labs who are creating AI themselves.

OpenAI 的 CFO Sarah Friar 这周发表了一篇文章,题目叫《What Building an AI-Native Finance Function Taught Me》。她在文中认识到,AI 不只是把他们过去的工作做得稍微快一点,而是带来了全新的机会。

OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar this week published a piece called What Building an AI-Native Finance Function Taught Me, recognizing that AI was about more than doing their old work a little bit faster and instead about totally new opportunities.

Friar 说,我们设定了两个大胆的目标:零天结账,以及自动化、持续更新的预测。

Friar said, we set two bold ambitions: a zero-day close and automated continuously updated forecasting.

她接着说,零天结账背后的想法,是让领导者能够实时看到公司财务状况的视图,而且这个视图是已经对账、并且可追溯的。

She continues, the idea behind a zero-day close is to give leaders a real-time reconciled and traceable view of the company's financial position.

持续预测是在这个基础上进一步发展,展示业务正在如何变化,接下来可能会发生什么,以及哪些决策可能改变结果。

Continuous forecasting builds on that foundation, showing how the business is changing, what could happen next, and what decisions could alter the outcome.

这很有挑战。

This is challenging.

她指出,这推动我们超越了静态电子表格、手动搜索支持性记录,以及做演示文稿这些方式,转向基于公司完整背景和数据构建的实时工具。

She notes it has pushed us beyond the limits of static spreadsheets, manual searches for supporting records, and presentations toward live tools built on the full context and data of the business.

更重要的是,她指出,要做到这一点,需要的不只是采用新技术。

Importantly, she notes, getting there requires more than adopting new technology.

这需要围绕真正重要的决策来重新设计工作,给人们留出实验空间,把清晰的责任机制嵌入每一个工作流,并衡量 AI 稳定完成的工作,从而给出清楚的 ROI。

It requires redesigning work around the decisions that matter, giving people room to experiment, building clear accountability into every workflow, and measuring the dependable work AI completes to provide a clear ROI.

那么,她认为其他人也可以借鉴的五条实用经验是什么呢?

So what are the five practical lessons that she thinks others can apply as well?

第一条是,先让每个人都能用上,然后再创造一个使用它的理由。

The first was to give everyone access, then create a reason to use it.

Friar 认为,人们需要有自由在自己的工作语境中探索 AI,而当这种访问权限和围绕真实问题的结构化实验结合起来时,才能创造最大的价值。

Friar argues people need the freedom to explore AI in the context of their own work, and access creates the most value when it is paired with structured experimentation around real problems.

说实话,公司内部的 hackathon 几年前我觉得还会被人嗤之以鼻,但现在已经变成了一种真正有用的组织架构,我看到它在各种公司和场景里不断出现。

Honestly, internal company hackathons have gone from something that I think people would sneer at a few years ago to a genuinely useful architecture that I'm seeing pop up across companies and contexts all the time.

不过,对 Friar 来说,简短总结就是:你既需要自下而上的实验,也需要自上而下的战略。

The TL;DR for Friar, though, is that you need both bottom-up experimentation and top-down strategy.

顺便说一句,回到我们刚才讨论的 token 预算问题,我认为,当我们设计更复杂的方式来分配 token 这种稀缺资源时,这会成为一大挑战。

And by the way, going back to that token budget question that we were just discussing before, that I think is going to be one of the big challenges as we design more sophisticated ways to allocate the scarce resource that is tokens.

事情不会简单到让每个人都为每一个 AI 使用场景证明 ROI 就行,除非人们只想要那些最容易证明 ROI 的使用场景。而在很多情况下,那些场景会是非常简单的生产力提升,而不是对工作方式的彻底重构。

It's not going to be as simple as getting everyone to prove ROI for every single AI use case, unless people want just the easiest-to-prove ROI type of use cases, which in many cases are going to be the very simple productivity enhancements, not these total reimaginings of work.

Friar 的另一个经验是,各行各业的专业人士,除了原本的专业能力之外,正越来越多地成为 builders。

Another takeaway lesson from Friar is the idea that professionals of all stripes are increasingly becoming builders alongside their other expertise.

她写道,更大的转变在于,财务专业人士现在可以自己构建工作所需要的工具。

She writes, the bigger transformation is that finance professionals can now build the tools their work requires.

OpenAI 最近的研究显示,财务专业人士的专业化 AI 使用中,有百分之四十涉及传统财务之外的工作,有百分之二十二涉及工程相关任务。

Recent OpenAI research shows that 40% of finance professionals' specialized AI use involves work outside traditional finance, and 22% involves engineering-related tasks.

她说,我团队里的每个人都在用 ChatGPT Work 和 Codex 构建定制的 AI dashboard 和工具。

Everyone on my team, she says, is building custom AI dashboards and tools with ChatGPT Work and Codex.

工作正在从静态的 Excel 模型和 PowerPoint 文稿,转向建立在公司完整背景和数据之上的实时 dashboard。

The work is moving from static Excel models and PowerPoint decks towards live dashboards that sit on top of the full context and data of the business.

这些工具可以把一项分析继续推进下去,回答后续问题,并随着底层信息的变化而更新。

These tools can carry an analysis forward, respond to follow-up questions, and update as the underlying information changes.

如果你想用一种简单方式来概括每一个充满知识工作者的组织都将面对的整体技能升级挑战,那就是,正如 Friar 所说,如何帮助人们弄清楚,怎样使用这类工具,以及怎样利用它们的新能力,让自己现有的专业能力走得更远。

And if you want a simple way to sum up the overall upskilling challenge that every organization full of knowledge workers is going to have to face, it's how to help people figure out, as Friar puts it, how to use these sorts of tools and how to use their new capabilities to gain the ability to carry their existing expertise further.

Friar 还有一条建议,是关于他们如何评估事情。

One more recommendation from Friar comes around how they evaluate things.

她建议衡量每单位 intelligence 所创造的价值。

She suggests measuring value per unit of intelligence.

她写道,CFO 需要一套基于运营表现的 AI 评分卡,当然她说的也可以适用于任何类型的高管。

CFOs, she writes, although she could be referring to any type of executive, need a scorecard for AI grounded in operating performance.

买更多 seats,或者使用更多 tokens,并不能说明太多问题。

Buying more seats or using more tokens doesn't tell you much.

真正重要的是,工作有没有做好,以及它真正的成本是多少。

What matters is whether the work gets done well and what it really costs.

对每一个工作流程,问四个问题。

For each workflow, ask four questions.

AI 有没有完成真正重要的工作?

Did AI complete work that mattered?

它的成本是多少,包括员工时间、审核和返工?

What did it cost, including employee time, review, and rework?

结果好到可以使用了吗?

Was the result good enough to use?

还有,它有没有帮我们更快推进,或者做出更好的决策?

And did it help us move faster or make a better decision?

这正是我说的那个意思:现实生活中围绕 AI 真正在发生的对话,比媒体呈现出来的要聪明得多、更成熟、更细腻,也更复杂。

And this is exactly what I mean when I say that the conversations that are actually happening in real life around AI are way smarter, more sophisticated, more nuanced, and more complex than the way that they're presented in the media.

公司并不傻。

Companies aren't stupid.

他们知道,光看消耗了多少 token 是不够的,但他们也知道,用过于简化的方法去理解 ROI 同样是不充分的。

They know that simply looking at how many tokens were consumed is not enough, but they also know that overly simplified approaches to understanding ROI are insufficient as well.

而且,这种细腻的理解正越来越成为常识。

And increasingly, this nuance is becoming conventional wisdom.

Section CEO Greg Shove 本周也在 LinkedIn 上发帖,谈到他现在正在告诉 CEO 们的关于 AI 的五件事。

Section CEO Greg Shove also posted this week on LinkedIn about the five things that he's telling CEOs about AI right now.

第一点呼应了我在这个节目里经常谈到、甚至在这一集前面也提过的一个观点:AI token 最大化很蠢,但 token 最小化也一样蠢。

The first one hearkens to something that I talk a lot about on this show and that I've even mentioned before in this particular episode: AI token maxing is stupid, but so is token minimizing.

你的职责就是下大注。

You're paid to make big bets.

不要在还没看到收益之前就缩减预算,自己给自己使绊子。

Don't shoot yourself in the foot by shrinking your budget before you can see gains.

对整个组织的生产力提升做一些假设,投资转型,并接受这样一个事实:一到两年内,你不会看到完整图景。

Make some assumptions on org-wide productivity, invest in transformation, and accept that you won't have the full picture for one to two years.

现在,Greg 讲得更进一步,甚至给出了一个具体做法。

Now, Greg goes a little farther and even gives one particular way to go about this.

他建议选一个团队,把投入提高十倍。

He suggests picking a team and 10x-ing the investment.

他写道,大多数员工赋能都是广撒网、浅尝辄止。

Most workforce enablement, he writes, is a mile wide and an inch deep.

虽然这是一个不错的起点,但你也需要一个“灯塔团队”——这是他的说法——在这个团队里,转型发生得更快,成果也更大。

And while that's a good place to start, you also want a lighthouse team, his term, where transformation happens faster with greater results.

最后,为了提前应对一个常见的、而且将来还会继续出现的挑战,Greg 建议避免陷入十二个月停滞期。

Finally, trying to get out ahead of what a common challenge is and is going to be, Greg suggests avoiding the 12-month stall.

他写道,第一年很令人兴奋。

Year one, he writes, was exciting.

你推出了工具,开了启动会,也看到一些高频用户冒了出来。

You rolled out tools, had a kickoff, saw some power users emerge.

现在大家都在说,这真的值得吗?

Now everyone's saying, is this really worth it?

不要变得怀疑,而是要变得具体。

Don't get skeptical, get specific.

哪些团队被卡住了?

Which teams are blocked?

是什么卡住了他们?

What's blocking them?

你可以尝试什么办法,让他们用不同的方式工作起来?

And what can you try to get them working differently?

这里再次体现出一种乐观:组织适应的速度有多快。

And here again is that optimism around how quickly organizations are adapting.

不管你看哪里,都会看到公司提出的问题正在发生变化:从更简单变得更复杂,从杠杆更低变得杠杆更高。

Everywhere you look, you see a shift in the nature of the questions that companies are asking, from simpler to more complex and from lower leverage to higher leverage.

BCG Global Chair Rich Lesser 捕捉到了 AI 讨论在成熟度上的这种变化。

BCG Global Chair Rich Lesser captured the shift in the sophistication around the AI conversation.

他写道,我们从 CEO 那里最常听到的关于 AI 的问题,已经悄悄变了。

He wrote, the question we hear most from CEOs about AI has quietly changed.

以前的问题是,我们应该用哪个 model?

It used to be, which model should we use?

现在的问题变成了,我们是不是太早、太多地押注在一个还在演进的生态系统上?

Now it's, are we committing too much too soon to an evolving ecosystem?

基本上,他以及他提到的那篇配套文章所描述的,是公司正在走出一种思维模式:不再把 AI 决策简单看成只是选择合适的 vendor。

And basically what he and the companion essay that he points to are describing is companies getting out of the mindset of thinking about AI decisions as simply about choosing the right vendor.

这呼应了 Microsoft 的 Satya Nadella 最近一直在强调的同一种节奏。他们认为,一个组织拥有他们所说的 enterprise cortex:也就是 IP、核心数据、关键业务规则、专有信息,以及对流程如何运作、如何连接到核心业务战略、目标和价值观的编码化理解。

Harkening to the same sort of drumbeat that Satya Nadella from Microsoft has been beating recently, they argued that the organization has what they call an enterprise cortex: the IP, essential data, key business rules, proprietary information, and codified understanding of how processes work and how they link to core business strategy, purpose, and values.

这些是最有价值的内部知识,也是让它的 AI 战略能够成功的关键要素。

Those are the most valuable internal knowledge and the essential things that will allow its AI strategy to succeed.

组织需要拥有那个承载这一切的 harness。

Organizations need to own the harness where all of that lives.

所以,从非常现实的意义上说,组织正在试图解决的另一个重大转变和新问题,就是从‘该买哪个 model’,转向‘如何创建一个组织层面的 harness’,让它能够使用任何 model,或者多个 model 的组合,同时保留更广泛的组织语境,包括工具、技能、guardrails、治理等等。

And so in a very real way, another one of these big shifts and new problems that organizations are trying to solve is shifting away from which model to buy and how to create an organization-level harness that can use any model or combination of models while preserving the broader organizational context, including tools, skills, guardrails, governance, and more.

而同样让我觉得有意思的是,在人们分享他们如何解决一些由 AI 带来的更明显挑战的同时,我们也开始出现一种看得更远的讨论:在一些 AI 问题还没变得像可能那么糟之前,先提前预防。

And what's also interesting to me is that alongside people sharing how they're solving some of the more obvious challenges that have emerged from AI, we're also starting to have discourse that looks farther out about preempting AI problems on the horizon before they become as bad as they could be.

Ridges-Younan 指向另一篇 BCG 论文,里面认为,当所有人都使用 AI 时,公司可能会失去关键技能。他写道,大多数领导者没有在追踪的风险,不是 AI hallucinations,不是失业,而是 distributed deskilling——也就是在整个员工队伍中,判断力、批判性思维和问题定义能力的集体性侵蚀;它会在 adoption 数据在 dashboard 上看起来很漂亮的时候,悄悄发生。

Pointing to another BCG paper that argues when everyone uses AI, companies risk losing critical skills, Ridges-Younan writes, the risk most leaders aren't tracking is not AI hallucinations, not job loss, but distributed deskilling — the collective erosion of judgment, critical thinking, and problem framing across an entire workforce, happening quietly while adoption numbers look great on a dashboard.

BCG 调研的领导者中,有一半说他们已经看到了这种情况;超过百分之六十的人预计,在未来三到五年里,这会成为一个真正的威胁。

Half the leaders BCG surveyed said they're already seeing it; over 60% expect it to be a real threat within the next three to five years.

他说,正在变弱的那些技能,恰恰就是公司说未来十年最需要的技能。

The skills going soft, he says, are the exact ones companies say they need for the next decade.

而虽然在 BCG 那篇文章里,他们把它框定为一个系统设计问题,但这里显然也有一个人才层面的维度。

And while in the BCG essay they frame it as a systems design problem, there is also clearly a talent dimension to this as well.

我们的研究告诉我们,如今不到五分之一的员工对使用 AI tools 感到有信心。

Our research tells us that fewer than one in five employees feel confident using AI tools today.

大约三分之二的人说,如果他们使用它所付出的努力能够被认可,他们会更愿意支持变革。

Roughly 2 in 3 said they'd be more willing to support change if their effort using it was recognized.

Token 使用量并不是 adoption 的替代指标——信心才是。

Token usage is not a proxy for adoption—confidence is.

而信心不是靠推出一个工具就能建立起来的。

And confidence isn't built by rolling out a tool.

它是在每一次有人选择做困难的事、而不是容易的事的时候,通过围绕这个工具强化正确行为建立起来的。

It's built by reinforcing the right behaviors around it every time someone does the hard thing instead of the easy thing.

而虽然我认为,现在说我们已经跨过了某个转折点绝对还太早,但终于开始出现一些认识:我们在 AI 的人这个维度上投入严重不足,却过度偏向了技术维度。

And while I think it is absolutely too early to say that we have turned a corner here, there is finally some emerging recognition that we have critically underspent on the human dimension of AI in favor of just the technology dimension.

在他们最近的 adaptability report 里,KPMG 认为,领导者在技术上投入过多,而在人才上投入不足。

In their recent adaptability report, KPMG argues that leaders are overspending on technology and underspending on talent.

他们指出,executives 增加对新技术投资的可能性,是投资员工培训的两倍。

Executives, they point out, are two times more likely to increase investment in new technology than to invest in employee training.

虽然百分之五十七的领导者说,提升绩效和效率是他们过去一年里的首要任务之一,但不到百分之十的人说,建设更强的员工培训项目是他们的主要目标之一。

While 57% of leaders say improving performance and efficiency was one of their top priorities in the past year, less than 10% say developing stronger workforce training programs was one of their primary objectives.

KPMG 写道,这话说出来可能痛得很明显,但仍然需要说:在动荡时期,员工需要更多培训和支持,而不是更少。

Stating the painfully obvious but still needs to be said, KPMG writes, in times of disruption, workers need more training and support, not less.

Executives 不应该把把资本投向技术还是投向人才看成一种取舍。

Executives should not view allocating capital to technology or talent as a trade-off.

当组织把这两者一起推进时,会看到更好的结果。

Organizations see better outcomes when they advance the two together.

AI 和技术 adoption 需要 change management,而那些没有投入足够资源去培养员工所需技能、让他们充分利用新工具的公司,往往很难实现这些工具的全部价值。

AI and technology adoption require change management, and companies that don't invest enough in building the skills employees need to make the most of new tools often struggle to realize their full value.

更重要的是,这可不只是某种让人感觉良好的说法。总体来看,有百分之二十五的商业领导者说,过去三年收入增长了百分之二十或更多;而在那些增加了对员工队伍投资的领导者中,这个数字是百分之三十七。

More importantly, and this is not just some feel-good thing, while 25% of business leaders overall said revenue had risen by 20% or more over the past three years, among leaders who had increased their investment in their workforce, that number was 37%.

当然,AI 培训并不简单。

Now, of course, AI training isn't simple.

它并不容易。

It's not easy.

它当然也不只是给他们最好的视频课程,再给他们一个可以放到 LinkedIn profile 上的 certification 就行了。

It's certainly not just a matter of giving them the best video course and a certification for their LinkedIn profile.

这需要非常艰苦的努力,也需要在实际任务上花时间。

It takes really hard work and time on task.

并且从根本上去调整流程。

And adapting processes from the ground up.

但至少,这现在已经是我们正在进行的那类对话了。

But at least that's now the type of conversation that we're having.

而且随着越来越多的公司找到有效的方法,比如 Sarah Friar 在她那篇帖子里分享的经验,其他公司能参考的模板就会越来越多,也就更容易回应正在出现的实际挑战。

And as more and more companies figure out approaches that work, such as the lessons that Sarah Friar shared in her post, the more templates other companies are going to have and the easier it's going to be to answer the actual challenges that are emerging.

随着 AI 不断演进、采用率持续提高,尤其是当我们真正全面拥抱它那些具有变革性的方面时,我们也会发现新的、涌现出来的挑战。

As AI evolves and as adoption proceeds, and especially as we fully embrace the true transformative aspects of it, we are going to discover new emergent challenges as well.

前进的路径在于:我们要能够识别这些问题、给它们命名,并且把它们放到公开场域里一起解决。

The path forward is in being able to identify and name those problems and work on them together out in the open.

这周我看到 Zara Zhang 在 X 上发了一个特别值得思考的话题,来自最近一篇叫做 The Tragedy of the Cognitive Commons 的论文。

One that I saw Zara Zhang posting about on X this week that is a super interesting one to contemplate comes from a recent paper called The Tragedy of the Cognitive Commons.

这篇论文给一个你可能已经本能地感受到的问题起了一个很高级的名字:the tragedy of the cognitive commons,也就是“认知公地的悲剧”。

This paper gives a fancy name to a problem you can already feel in your bones: the tragedy of the cognitive commons.

检查 AI 的输出需要很深的专业能力。

Checking AI output requires deep expertise.

而深厚的专业能力,来自多年做那些基础、繁琐的活儿。

Deep expertise comes from doing grunt work for years.

可这些基础活儿,正是 AI 最先吃掉的东西。

And grunt work is the first thing AI eats.

所以我们正在构建一些需要专家监督的系统,同时又在拆掉目前唯一已知的、培养专家的过程。

So we're building systems that need expert supervision while dismantling the only known process for making experts.

这篇论文把人类专业能力的共享池称为 cognitive commons,也就是“认知公地”。

This paper calls the shared pool of human expertise the cognitive commons.

每一个行业都从中汲取资源。

Every profession drinks from it.

但没有人在往里面补充。

Nobody's refilling it.

通过取消初级岗位,每家公司单独来看都做得完全理性。

By eliminating junior roles, each company is acting totally rationally.

那集体结果是什么呢?

And the collective result?

一个行业再也抓不住 AI 的错误,因为它从一开始就没有学过怎么真正做这项工作。

A profession that can't catch AI's mistakes anymore because it never learned to do the work in the first place.

换句话说,十五年后,谁来检查 AI 的作业?

In other words, who checks AI's homework in 15 years?

当然,当我们谈论这种很遥远的问题时,我不觉得我们应该毫无疑问地接受它们一定会像人们现在描述的那样成为现实问题,但它们确实值得我们思考、值得花时间研究,因为世界上没有哪个问题是完全没有答案的。

Now, when we're talking about far-out problems like this, I don't think that we should just be accepting beyond a shadow of a doubt that they are going to be the problem that manifests as people are presenting here, but they are worth thinking about and spending time on because there isn't a problem in the world that has no answers.

Zara 认为,深厚的专业能力只能来自多年做基础活儿,但这在专业领域里是一条自然法则吗?还是说这只是过去一直以来的做法?

Zara argues that deep expertise only comes from doing grunt work for years, but is that a law of nature in the professional world, or is that simply how it's always happened?

有没有其他方式可以培养这种专业能力?又有没有激励机制能让公司把人放到可以发展这种能力的位置上?

Are there other ways to develop that expertise and incentives for companies to put people in a position to do so?

这些都不是简单轻松的问题,但它们都是值得提出来的好问题。

None of those are simple and easy questions, but they are good ones to ask.

我觉得真要到关键时刻,如果你非要让我用一个很大的 TL;DR 来概括我对过去一年 AI 在企业内部演进的感受,那就是:我们已经从非常频繁地问那些不太有用的“会不会”的问题,比如 AI 到底会不会成为一件大事,转向了更有价值得多的“怎么做”以及“怎么把它做好”的问题。

I think when push comes to shove, if you had to put a big old TL;DR on how I feel about particularly how AI has evolved inside of businesses over the past year, it's that we've gone from very frequently asking not particularly useful questions of if, i.e., is AI actually going to be a thing, to much, much more valuable questions of how and how to do it well.

我想鼓励大家继续提出这些问题,并且尽可能公开分享你们的答案,这样每个人就不用都自己从头解决一遍。

My encouragement to all of you is to keep asking those questions and sharing your answers in public as much as possible so that everyone doesn't have to solve them on their own.

这是本周末这一集留给大家思考的内容;不过现在,今天的 AI Daily Brief 就到这里。

Food for thought in this weekend episode, but for now, that is gonna do it for today's AI Daily Brief.

一如既往,感谢你的收听或观看,我们下次再见,peace。

Appreciate you listening or watching as always, and until next time, peace.
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M113:41广告 · 已剔除

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