2015年股东大会 · “华尔街之狼”会有一天接管伯克希尔公司吗？ — 文稿

M10:00

Charlie，来一个关于 activism 的问题。

Charlie, a question about activism.

Activism 还在继续扩大，而且就像 Charlie 在二零一四年年会上说的那样，他觉得这会越来越糟，而不是越来越好。

Activism continues to grow, and as Charlie stated at the 2014 annual meeting, he sees it getting worse instead of getting better.

所以问题是，我们当然希望 Charlie 和 Warren 都能永远在，但很遗憾，总会有一天他们不再在这里掌舵、管理这家公司。

So the question is, we hope that Charlie and Warren will both be around forever, but unfortunately there will be a time when they're no longer here to manage the store.

M20:18

我不接受这种失败主义。

I reject such defeatism.

M10:22

如果 Warren 按照他的遗产安排，在十年时间里把他的股份捐给慈善机构，而 activist 又变得越来越强大，那 Berkshire 在未来，不管是近期还是更长远，要怎么保护自己不受 activist 的影响？

If Warren is giving away his shares to charity over a 10-year period through his estate plan, and activists become increasingly more powerful, how will Berkshire defend itself from activists in the near and far future?

还有，如果未来 Berkshire 被拆分了，而且股东因此拿到了相当可观的溢价，你会把这看成是一种失败吗？

And would you consider it a failure if Berkshire were broken up in the future and shareholders received a significant premium?

那反过来说，要让你觉得这是成功，这个溢价得高到什么程度？

And for you to consider it success, what would the premium need to be?

M20:45

对，不过如果经营得当，拆分它是不会带来什么溢价的。

Yeah, well, if it's run right, there won't be a premium in breaking it up.

表面上看起来也许会像是有。

It may look like it.

我的意思是，人们会说，某个子公司 A 单独卖的话可以按二十倍 earnings 来卖，而整个公司现在只按十五倍来卖。

I mean, people will say there's subsidiary A that would sell at 20 times earnings and the whole place is selling at 15.

但如果你把那个按二十倍的业务分拆出去，整个公司就不会还按十五倍来卖了。

But the whole place won't sell at 15 if you spin off the one at 20.

我是说，我在 annual report 里已经讲过了，把这些公司放在同一份 corporate tax return 下面，对 Berkshire 有很多好处。

I mean, I laid out in the annual report, there are a lot of benefits to Berkshire in terms of having the companies in the same corporate tax return.

所以我觉得，不管从长期看，还是中期看，各个部分加起来的价值都不太可能高于整体的价值。

So I think it's unlikely that on any long-term basis or an intermediate-term basis that the value of the parts will be greater than the value of the whole.

对付 activism 最好的防御就是业绩，不过最近有太多钱涌进 activist funds，因为这类资金很容易募到钱。

The best defense against activism is performance, but lately there's been so much money pouring into activist funds because it's been easy to raise money for that.

我的意思是，这在过去算是一种很成功的管钱方式。

I mean, it's been a successful way of handling money.

过去这几年一直如此，然后机构资金就开始往里面流，顾问也会推荐，诸如此类。

For the last few years, and institutional money then starts flowing into it, and the consultants recommend it, and all of that sort of thing.

所以我要说，我现在看到的很多所谓 activism，

And so I would say that much of what I see as activism now,

其实那些人在谈论的公司类型、还有他们宣称自己能做到的事情之类的，很多都已经说得太满、伸得太远了。

people are really reaching in terms of the kind of companies that they're talking about and the claims of what they can do and that sort of thing.

我觉得最大的问题——如果你说的是，在我的遗产处理完之后，我的股份会在十年里逐步分发出去，以及这些股份所带有的投票权。

I think the biggest— you know, if you're talking about my shares getting dispensed over 10 years after my estate is settled and the voting power they have.

我觉得等这件事真的变成现实的时候，Berkshire 的市值很可能已经大到，就算所有 activist 全都聚在一起，也拿它没什么办法。

And I think by the time that gets to be a reality, I think the market value of Berkshire is likely to be so great that even if all the activists gathered together, they wouldn't be able to do very much about it.

十年或二十年后，Berkshire 很可能会真正成为一个非常非常庞大的组织。

Berkshire is likely to really be a very, very large organization 10 or 20 years from now.

M32:48

再说了，Buffett 的超级投票权还会持续很久。

Besides, Buffett's super voting power is going to last a long time.

M22:51

会持续很久。

It lasts a long time.

对，我总是——我有一些朋友会为了别的公司打电话给我，说他们碰上了 activist，他们很担心。

Yeah, I always— I've got these friends that call me with other companies and they've got an activist and they're worried about it.

我就告诉他们，把这些人送到 Berkshire 来。

I just tell them to send them over to Berkshire.

我们欢迎他们。

We'll welcome them.

我们很乐意让他们买我们的股票，因为他们什么也做不成。

We'd love to have them buy our stock because they're not going to get anyplace.

而且这种情况还会持续非常非常久。

And that's going to be the situation for a long, long time.

我们应该成为一个让别人把 activist 丢过来的地方。

We should be a place where people can dump their activists.

Charlie，轮到你了。

Charlie, you're up.

M33:19

嗯，我觉得挺有意思的一点是，以前啊，当很多——大多数股票的交易价格都远低于它们内在价值的时候，你很少会看到哪家 American corporation 去回购自家股票。

Well, the thing that I find interesting is in the old days when many— most stocks sold for way less than they were worth in terms of intrinsic value, it was very rare to find an American corporation buying the stock in.

M23:33

哦，对。

Oh yeah.

M33:33

现在呢，很多情况下，这些 activists 都在强烈推动公司大举回购股票，哪怕那股票的价格已经高于它本身的价值了。

Now, in many cases, the activists are urging corporations to buy the stock in heavily, even though it's selling for more than it's worth.

这不是一种建设性的做法，也不是一种可取的变化，而且对这些 activists 来说，这也不是一种很负责任的行为。

This is not a constructive activity, and it's not a desirable change, and it's not a very responsible activity for the activists.

M23:51

像股票回购这么简单的一件事，围绕它写出来的蠢东西，真是越来越多了。

There's been more stupid stuff written on such a simple activity as stock repurchase.

不光写出来的蠢东西多，干出来的蠢事也多。

Both stupid stuff written and stupid stuff done.

我的意思是，在我看来，要不要回购自家股票，这其实是个非常简单的决定。

I mean, it's a very simple decision in my view as to whether you repurchase your shares.

你知道，只要你已经照顾好了业务本身的需要，而且你的股票卖得比它的内在价值低，那你就回购。

You know, you repurchase them if you've taken care of the needs of the business and your stock is selling for less than it's intrinsically worth.

但是这个——我真看不出来，这事还能有多复杂。

But that— I don't, I don't see how anything could be more simple.

如果你有一个 partnership，有个合伙人想把他的份额卖给你，开价是企业价值的一百二十，那你肯定会说，算了吧。

If you had a partnership and a partner wanted to sell you out, sell out to you at 120% of what the business is worth, you'd say, you know, say forget it.

可如果他愿意按价值的百分之八十卖给你，那你就会买。

And if you want to sell out to you at 80% of what it's worth, you'd take it.

这根本不复杂。

It's not complicated.

但是现在，人们在决定要不要回购股票这件事上，脑子里掺进了太多别的动机。

But there are so many other motivations that have entered into people's minds about deciding whether to repurchase shares or not.

结果在很多情况下，这个讨论就变得非常拧巴，而且有点可笑。

It's gotten to be a very contorted and kind of silly discussion in many cases.

而且 Charlie 说得对。

And Charlie is right.

你要是看看股票回购的历史，就会发现，股票便宜的时候，回购会大幅减少；等到股票价格完全被炒上去的时候，回购反而会明显增加。

If you look at the history of share repurchases, you know, it falls off like crazy when stocks are cheap, and it tends to go up dramatically when stocks get fully priced.

但这不是我们在 Berkshire 会做的事。

But it's not what we'll do at Berkshire.

在 Berkshire，你知道，我们现在——你知道，要是能按账面价值的一百二十来买，我们会非常乐意一篮子一篮子地买，因为我们知道它真正值的钱比这高得多。

At Berkshire, you know, we will presently— you know, we would love to buy it by the bushel basket at 120% of book because we know it's worth a lot more than that.

我们不知道到底高多少，但我们知道，肯定高得多。

We don't know how much more, but we know it's worth a lot more.

我们不常有这种机会，但如果真有机会，我们会大手笔去做。

And we don't get a chance to do that very often, but if we do get a chance, we'll do it big time.

但我们不会按账面价值的两百回购，因为那不值。

But we won't buy it in at 200% of book because it isn't worth it.

你知道，这不是个复杂的问题，可是——我见过很多管理层，宣布说要回购价值多少多少的股票，然后就不管价格，照买不误。

You know, and it's not a complicated question, but people that— I've been around a lot of managements that announce they're going to buy X worth, and then they buy it regardless of price.

很多时候那个价格还说得过去，但是——如果价格不合理，他们似乎也不会停下来，而且好像也没人想去阻止他们。

And a lot of times the price makes sense, but— If it doesn't, they don't seem to stop, and nobody tries to seem to want to stop them.

Charlie？

Charlie?

M35:42

嗯，我当然同意你的看法。

Well, I certainly agree with you.

我不觉得这个 activist 横行的时代，是什么伟大的时代。

I don't think it's a great age, this age of activism.

M25:50

你想再展开说说吗？

You want to expand on that?

M35:51

嗯，我很难想到有多少 activists，是我愿意让他娶进我们家的。

Well, it's hard for me to think of many activists I want to marry into the family.

M26:02

他要是开始点名，我最好现在就打住。

I better stop before he names names.

好，Greg。

Okay, Greg.