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1997年股东大会 · 股东问巴菲特:你为何不选择“闷声发大财”?

30 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:46
M1
M10:00

大家好,我叫 Larry Widman,来自 North Dakota 的 Minot。

Hello, my name is Larry Widman from Minot, North Dakota.

你们两位今天都谈到了,你们能买的股票范围在不断缩小,安全边际比以往任何时候都更低,机会成本却更高。

You have both talked today about the shrinking universe of stocks you could purchase, less margin of safety than ever, and a higher opportunity cost.

你们也谈到了,可能会考虑在价格合理的时候,继续增持你们已经持有的那些优秀公司。

And you've also talked about looking to potentially purchase more of your great companies that you already have at reasonable prices.

所以我就在想,当你们这么正面地谈论你们持有的一些股票时,尤其是 Disney,比如在九五年的年报里,你说过你们实际上是在公开市场继续买入它的股票;还有在九七年的会议上,在他们那边的股东会上,你也提到过也许不会卖掉这些股份。

And so I wonder if by talking so positively about some of your stocks, in particular Disney, such as in the '95 annual report when you talked about actually telling everyone that you were buying more shares on the open market, and again at the '97 meeting, at their meeting, when you talked about maybe not selling the shares.

而这两次,其实可能都正好是 Disney 因为一些事情下跌的时机,比如债务增加,或者人们对 Ovitz 薪酬方案的担忧。

Those were both opportunities maybe when Disney may have dropped because of such things as increased debt or even people's concern about the Ovitz compensation package.

所以我就在想,当大家变得不理性、其实你们本来可能可以用更低价格买入这些优秀公司的时候,你们这么正面地谈论它们,会不会反而损害你们以合理价格买入这些伟大公司的能力?

And I just wonder if that may hurt your ability to buy these great companies at reasonable prices by talking so positively about them when in fact maybe you could buy them at lower prices when people get irrational.
M2
M21:02

对,你的意思是——这点我大概也同意——如果我们说 Coke、Disney 或者 Gillette 都快完了,那从我们能继续买进更多股票这一点来说,也许反而更有利。

Yeah, you're saying that, which I probably agree with, that if we would say the world is going to hell at Coke or Disney or Gillette, we might be better off in terms of being able to buy more stock.

不过你知道,我当时在 Disney 被问到了这个问题,我就回答了。我的一贯做法就是,我认为卖掉你在优秀企业里的持股,通常是个很糟糕的错误。

But, you know, I got asked the question at Disney and I answered it, and that's my general approach, that I think it's usually a bad mistake to sell your interest in wonderful businesses.

我觉得人们并不会经常碰到这样的公司,而且一旦他们在 X 的价格卖掉了,就老想着要在百分之九十的 X,或者百分之八十五的 X 再买回来,所以他们就永远不会在百分之一百零五的 X 再进去。

I don't think people find them that often, and I think they, they get hung up if they've sold them at X that they want to buy them back at 90% of X or 85% of X, so they'll never go back in at 105% of X.

所以我只是——我总体上认为,如果你投资的是一个你看得懂的企业,而且你觉得它真的是一家非常杰出的企业,那默认的做法就应该是一直拿着,别担心。

So I just— I think on balance, if you are in a business that you understand and you think it's a really outstanding business, that the presumption should be that you just hold it and don't worry.

如果它的股价跌了百分之二十五,或者百分之三十,而你手上还有更多资金,那就再买一些。

And if it goes down 25% in price or 30% in price, if you have more money available, buy more.

如果没有,那又怎么样呢?

And if you don't, you know, so what?

你就看这个企业本身,判断它经营得怎么样。

Just look at the business and judge how it's doing.

不过毫无疑问,我们确实——我们会尽量少谈这些企业,除非只是把它们当成教学中的例子,或者类似那样的用途。

But there's no question, I mean, we don't— we try not to talk very much about the businesses except maybe to use them as an illustration in a teaching mode or something of the sort.

我们不是在替任何东西站台吹捧。

We're not touting anything.

而且当我确实谈到这些公司、说它们是优秀企业的时候,我也会尽量加上这些提醒,免得别人把这理解成一个毫无保留的买入建议,或者类似的东西。

And I did try to stick those precautions in when I do talk about them as being wonderful businesses so people don't take it as an unqualified buy recommendation or something of the sort.

但我们不会——当我们在一般性地谈商业问题时,不会故意给任何事情加什么倾向性的包装。

But we're not— we won't try and put any spin on anything when we're talking about business generally.

我们也可能干脆不谈它们。

We may not talk about them at all.

你知道,如果我们正在买某个东西,尤其是如果还没人知道我们根本持有那只股票,我们可能会对这件事相对低调一点。

You know, if we're buying something, we might be— particularly if no one knows that we've been in that stock at all, we might be somewhat quiet about the fact.

但我们不会为了买进某个东西,就故意把它说差。

But we don't want to talk down something in order to buy it.
M3
M32:48

Charlie?

Charlie?

据我了解,Jerry Newman 当年一直——他不太喜欢 Ben Graham 开那么多课程,把 Newman and Graham 在做什么都讲出来。

I always— Jerry Newman, as I understand it, didn't like Ben Graham giving all these courses explaining what Newman and Graham were doing.

不过,Graham 的态度是,他首先是个教授;如果因为他在教学上非常准确,结果让自己少赚了一点点钱,那也无所谓。

And, uh, but Graham's attitude was that he was a professor first, and if he made just slightly less money by being very accurate in what he taught, why, so be it.

我觉得可以公平地说,Warren 多多少少吸收了这种精神。

And I think it's fair to say that Warren has assimilated a bit of that ethos.

而且我觉得这总体上是好事。

And I think it's all to the good.

如果这偶尔让我们少赚那么一点点钱,可能也会有其他方面的补偿性好处。

And if it costs us a tiny little bit of money from time to time, there are probably compensating benefits.

就算没有,那大概也还是一种正确的做事方式。

And if there aren't, it's probably the right way to behave anyway.
M2
M23:27

Charlie 要是今天没那么厚道,可能会指出,我可不是在变富之前就这么做的。

Charlie, if you were in a less charitable mood, might point out I didn't behave that way till I got rich.

其实,我以前在当时的 University of Omaha 教过一门课,我们用的也都是这些现实中的当下案例,只不过那时候东西便宜得很,可根本没人当回事。

Actually, I used to teach a course at what was then the University of Omaha, and we used all these current examples, but things were so cheap there, but nobody paid any attention.

呃,第三区。

Uh, area 3.