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2018年股东大会 · 芒格:格雷厄姆的投资法到今天将不再适用

77 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 8:31
M1
M10:00

嗨,我是 Brady Ritchie,来自 Missouri 的 St. Louis,从一九九六年起就是股东了。

Hi, I'm Brady Ritchie from St. Louis, Missouri, shareholder since 1996.
M2
M20:05

太好了。

Terrific.
M1
M10:06

Warren,你和 Charlie 过去一直对商学院以及它们教的东西持批评态度。

Warren, you and Charlie have been critical of business schools in the past and what they teach.

说到 value investing,在《The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville》里,你展示了很多伟大投资人的回报,他们背景、工作经历和教育都各不相同,而其中传达的道理就是,关键在于遵循这种哲学。

With respect to value investing, in “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville,” you featured the returns of many great investors with different backgrounds, work, and education, with the lesson being following the philosophy is the key.

那在今天,如果想取得成功,是不是归根结底还是要回到《The Intelligent Investor》第八章?

To be successful today, does it still just fall back to Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor?

还有,你怎么看 CFA、CFP 之类的项目和资格认证?它们号称标准很高,但根基又非常偏重学术。

And what do you think of programs and designations such as CFA, CFP, etc., which purport high standards yet are rooted heavily in academia?

另外,我还想邀请你明天跟我打一轮 bridge。

And I'd like to challenge you to a round of bridge tomorrow.
M2
M20:48

我上过三所商学院,在每一所里面,我都遇到过一两位老师。

I went to three business schools and at each, I found a teacher or two.

其中有一所我是专门冲着某一位老师去的,不过在每一所学校里,我都碰到过一两位真的让我受益很多的老师。

I went to one specifically to get a given teacher, but in each one of them, I found a teacher or two that I really got a lot out of.

所以,我们在这里完全不是反对商学院。

So, we're not anti-business school here at all.

不过我们确实认为,三十年前左右,或者说四十年前吧,学术圈那套正统观点——比如 efficient market theory 之类的——在我们看来,已经偏离真实的投资世界相当远了。

We do think that the priesthood, say, 30 years ago, for example, in terms of—or 40 years ago, in terms of efficient market theory and everything, they strayed pretty far, in our view, from the reality of investing.

如果让我招人,比如说,可以在排名第一、第二、第三的商学院里,从最顶尖的五名毕业生中挑一个;而我的另一个选择,是一个很聪明的人,并且他对《The Intelligent Investor》第八章那一套完全融会贯通——就是那种很自然地理解,几乎刻在骨子里的人。

And I would rather have a person, if I could hire somebody among the top five graduates of number one, two, or three of the business schools, and my choice was somebody that was bright but had Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor absolutely—it just was natural to them, they had it in their bones, basically.

那我会选那个“第八章”出来的人。

I'd take the person from Chapter 8.

我们做的这件事,其实并不复杂。

This is not—what we do is not a complicated business.

它必须是一门讲纪律的事,但并不需要特别高的 IQ,或者类似那种东西。

It's got to be a disciplined business, but it does not require a super high IQ or anything of the sort.

这里面有少数几个基本原则,是重要得不得了的,而且你确实得懂 accounting。

And there are a few fundamentals that are incredibly important, and you do have to understand accounting.

另外,多出去跟消费者聊聊也有帮助;在某些行业里,你还要学会在很多方面像消费者那样去思考,诸如此类。

And it helps to get out and talk to consumers and start thinking like a consumer in many ways in certain industries and all of that.

但这件事真的不需要多高深的进阶学习。

But it just doesn't require advanced learning.

而且说实话,我当年其实并不想上大学,所以我也不知道,如果我高中毕业就不念了,然后去读那些我后来读的书之类的,我到底会做得更好还是更差。

And I certainly, you know, I didn't want to go to college, so I don't know whether I would've done better or worse if I'd just quit after high school, you know, and read the books I read and all of that.

我觉得,如果你在人生中遇到几个伟大的老师,他们真的在某种程度上改变了你看世界的方式,那你就是很幸运的;你可以在 academia 里找到这样的人,也可以在普通生活里找到这样的人。

I think that if you run into a few great teachers and they really change the way you see the world to some degree, you know, you're lucky and you can find them in academia, and you can find them in ordinary life.

而我自己就非常非常幸运,遇到过很棒的老师,包括 Charlie。

And I've been extraordinarily lucky in having great teachers, including Charlie.

我是说,Charlie 一直都是一位很了不起的老师。

I mean, Charlie's been a wonderful teacher.

而且,不管你在哪里遇到这样的人——能让你对原本不懂的事情产生新的洞见,也许还能让你变成一个比原来更好的人——那都是非常幸运的事,你要尽量把这种机会利用到最好。

And, you know, any place you can find somebody that gives you insights into things you didn't understand before, maybe makes you a better person than you would've been before, you know, that's very lucky, and you want to make the most of it.

如果你能在 academia 里找到,那就好好把握。

If you can find it in academia, make the most of it.

如果你能在人生其他地方找到,也一样要好好把握。

And if you can find it in the rest of your life, make the most of it.

Charlie?

Charlie?
M3
M34:05

嗯,你当年发现 Ben Graham 的时候,他很不按常规,而且非常聪明。

Well, when you found Ben Graham, he was unconventional and he was very smart.

那当然对你很有吸引力。

And of course, that was very attractive to you.

后来当你发现这套方法真的有效,而且你只要坐着就能赚很多钱,那你当然一下子就成了坚定信徒。

And then when you found out it worked and you could make a lot of money by sitting on your ass, of course, you were an instant convert.
M2
M24:23

所以,说真的,这到现在对我还是很有吸引力。

And so, it still appeals to me, actually.

我的意思是——

I mean—.
M3
M34:30

但是世界变了。

But the world changed.

Ben Graham 在去世前——我是说,Ben Graham 自己也意识到,他那种寻找被低估公司的具体做法,并不一定在任何时候、任何条件下都适用。

Before he died, Ben Graham— I mean, Ben Graham recognized that the exact way he sought undervalued companies wouldn't necessarily work for all times under all conditions.

这当然也是我们这边的情况。

And that's certainly the way it worked for us.

我们慢慢转变成,去买那些被低估的好公司,而不是去买那些被低估的烂公司。

We gradually morphed into trying to buy the better companies when they were underpriced instead of the lousy companies when they were underpriced.

当然,这对我们来说效果相当不错。

And of course, that worked pretty well for us.

而且 Ben Graham 呢,他活得够久,亲眼看到自己大部分时间一直在玩的那套游戏,已经过时了。

And Ben Graham, he outlived the game that he played personally most of the time.

他活着看到了其中大部分慢慢消失。

He lived to see most of it fade away.

我的意思是,光是去找一家市值只有它营运资本三分之一的公司,然后判断它很容易就能清算,按市价每花一美元,最后能分回三美元。

I mean, just to find some company that's selling for 1/3 of its working capital and figure out it could easily be liquidated and distribute $3 for every dollar of market price.

你要是现在还能在市场里找到这种机会,那真算你走运。

Lots of luck if you can find those in the present markets.

而且就算你能找到,它们规模也小得很,Berkshire 反正也用不上。

And if you can find them, they're so small that Berkshire wouldn't find them of any use anyway.

所以我们必须学会玩另一种游戏。

So we've had to learn a different game.

这对在场所有年轻人来说,都是个教训。

And that's a lesson for all the young people in the room.

如果你想活得久,你就得一直学习。

If you're going to live a long time, you have to keep learning.
M2
M25:36

对。

Yeah.
M3
M35:37

你以前知道的那些东西,永远都不够。

What you formerly knew is never enough.

所以如果你不学会不断修正自己先前的结论,得出更好的新结论——

So if you don't learn to constantly revise your earlier conclusions and get better ones.

所以我——你们——我总爱用同一个比喻。

So I— you are— I always use the same metaphor.

你就像一个独腿的人,跑去参加踢屁股比赛。

You're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.
M2
M25:54

对。

Yeah.

如果谁对这个比喻有更好的建议,发给我。

If anybody has suggestions for another metaphor, send them to me.

顺便说一句,关于 Graham,有一个重点,很重要的一点,Graham 这套方法是没法扩张规模的。

Graham, incidentally, one point, important point, Graham was not scalable.

我的意思是,你没法用特别大的资金去做这个。

I mean, you could not do it with really big money.

我在 Graham-Newman Corp. 工作的时候,Ben Graham 可是所有分析师里的泰斗,而且你知道,在那个年代,他的头脑几乎高出周围所有人一截。

And when I worked for Graham-Newman Corp., here he was, the dean of all analysts, and, you know, he was an intellect above all others around that time.

但我们的投资基金只有六百万美元,而那个和投资公司配合运作的合伙企业,里面也大概只有六百万美元。

But our investment fund was $6 million, and the partnership that worked in tandem with the investment company also had about $6 million in it.

所以我们总共是一千两百万美元。

So we had $12 million.

我们当时就是拿这笔钱在运作。

We were working with.

当然,现在你可以把通胀之类的因素都算进去,但那也还是一笔很小的钱。

Now you can make adjustments for inflation and everything, but it was just a tiny amount.

它确实没法真正做大规模。

It wasn't really scalable.

而事实是,Graham 并不在乎,因为他其实并不是真的对替自己赚很多钱这件事感兴趣。

And the truth is, Graham didn't care because he really wasn't interested in making a lot of money for himself.

所以,他没有理由去想找那种能够一直持续下去、而且规模变得越来越大的东西。

So he had no reason to want to find something that could go on and on and become larger and larger.

所以,Chapter 8 从把股票看成一家企业这点来说,它的价值是非常巨大的。

And so the utility of Chapter 8 in terms of looking at stocks as a business is of enormous value.

还有 Chapter 20 讲的 margin of safety,也有非常巨大的价值,不过那不是什么复杂的东西。

The utility of Chapter 20 about a margin of safety is of enormous value, but that's not complicated stuff.
M3
M37:24

我后来终于搞明白了,为什么教 corporate finance 的老师,经常会教很多不对的东西。

I finally figured out why the teachers of corporate finance often teach a lot of stuff that's wrong.

我很年轻的时候,眼睛出过一些问题,我去找过一位非常有名的眼科医生。

When I had some eye troubles very early in life, I consulted a very famous eye doctor.

然后我发现,他那家诊所做的竟然是一种早就完全过时的白内障手术。

And I realized that his place of business was doing a totally obsolete cataract operation.

明明更好的手术方法早就发明出来了,他们居然还在用刀切。

They were still cutting with a knife after better procedures had been invented.

我就说,为什么你在这么好的医学院里,却还在做这种已经彻底过时的手术?

And I said, why are you in a great medical school performing absolutely obsolete operations?

他说,Charlie,这种手术拿来教学实在太棒了。

He said, Charlie, it's such a wonderful operation to teach.

嗯,corporate finance 里就是这么回事。

Well, that's what happens in corporate finance.

他们搞出这些公式,然后这就成了一种很不错的教学体验。

They get these formulas and it's a fine teaching experience.

你给学生一个公式,再把问题摆出来,他们就套用那个公式。

You give them a formula, you present the problem, they use the formula.

这会让人真的产生一种“自己在做很有价值的事”的感觉。

It's—you get a real feeling of worthwhile activity.

唯一的问题就是:这些全都是胡扯。

There's only one trouble: it's all balderdash.
M2
M28:25

对啊,只要你听到有人把某个理论形容成 elegant,那你就得小心了。

Yeah, whenever you hear a theory described as elegant, watch out.

你知道吧,对吧?

You know, right?

好,Andrew。

Okay, Andrew.