M20:34
这个嘛，你知道，我们在一九九二年的年报里，其实已经讨论过不少。
Well, you know, in the 1992 annual report, we discussed that a fair amount.
但任何资产的经济价值，本质上就是：按照合适的利率，把这个企业未来所有流入和流出的现金流，折算成现在的价值。
But the economic value of any asset essentially is the present value, at the appropriate interest rate, of all the future streams of cash going in or out of the business.
而有很多种企业，我和 Charlie 觉得，我们根本没法知道它未来的现金流大概会是什么样。
And there are all kinds of businesses that Charlie and I don't think we have the faintest idea what that future stream will look like.
如果我们根本不知道未来的现金流会是什么样，那我们也就根本不知道它现在值多少钱。
And if we don't have the faintest idea what the future stream is going to look like, we don't have the faintest idea what it's worth now.
所以，如果你觉得自己知道一只股票今天应该值多少钱，但你又觉得自己完全不知道它未来二十年的现金流会是什么样，那这就是——我想他们管这叫 cognitive dissonance，认知失调。
Now that— so if you think you know what the price of a stock should be today, but you don't think you have any idea what the stream of cash will be over the next 20 years, you've got the— cognitive dissonance, I guess, is what they call it.
所以，我们会去找那种我们觉得有相当高概率、能够在一段时间内大致判断出这些数字范围的东西，然后再把它们折现回来。
So we are looking for things where we feel a fairly high degree of probability that we can come within a range of looking at those numbers out over a period of time, and then we discount them back.
而且，比起找到那个看上去绝对最便宜、但所依据的数字我们并没有多大把握的标的，我们更看重这些数字本身的确定性。
And we are more concerned with the certainty of those numbers than we are with getting the one that looks absolutely the cheapest, but based upon numbers that we don't have any— don't have great confidence in.
这基本上就是经济价值的核心。
And that's basically what economic value is all about.
任何会计报告里的数字，本身并不代表经济价值。
The numbers in any accounting report mean nothing per se as to economic value.
它们只是一些线索，告诉你该怎么去接近经济价值，但它们本身并不会直接告诉你答案。财务报表里没有现成答案。
They are guidelines to tell you something about how to get at economic value, but they don't tell you anything. There are no answers in the financial statements.
它们只是帮助你把答案推导出来的一些指引。
There are guidelines to enable you to figure out the answer.
而要把这个答案想明白，你得懂一点生意。
And to figure out that answer, you have to understand something about business.
你不需要懂很多数学。
You don't have to understand a lot about mathematics.
我的意思是，数学并不——并不复杂。
I mean, the math isn't— is not complicated.
但你确实得懂一点这个业务。
But you do have to understand something about the business.
不过，这跟你要买一栋公寓楼或者一个农场时做的事情，其实是一样的。
But that's the same thing you would do if you're going to buy an apartment house or a farm.
或者任何一家你感兴趣的小生意，你都会试着弄清楚：你现在要投入多少，未来大概率能收回多少，你对拿回这些回报有多大把握，以及它跟其他选择比起来怎么样。
Or any other small business you might be interested in, you would try to figure out what you are laying out currently and what you are likely to get back over time, and how certain you felt about getting it, and how it compared to other alternatives.
我们做的也就这些。
That's all we do.
只不过，我们基本上是在拿大企业这么做而已。
We just do it with large businesses, basically.
会计数字对我们很有帮助，因为它们通常能引导我们去想：哪些问题才是我们该关注的。
The accounting figures are very helpful to us in the sense that they generally guide us to what we should be thinking about.
当然，如果我们看到某些数字，感觉管理层是在 GAAP 允许的范围内，尽可能用最乐观的方式来解释一切之类的做法，那我们就会非常警惕。凡是看起来会以任何方式粉饰数字的人，我们都会很担心。
And, of course, if we find numbers where it looks like people are taking the most optimistic interpretation of things that they can under GAAP and all of that, we get very worried about people who look like they massage the numbers in any way.
而这样的人其实很多。
And there are plenty of people that do.
第三区？
Zone 3?