M21:47
对，我大体上同意你刚才说的。
Yeah, I largely agree with what you said.
然后，呃，我会说，有一点——比如说，一个人能在多大程度上把自己从人群里抽离出来，我不知道这到底有多大程度是天生的，又有多大程度是后天学来的，但这是一种你必须具备的特质。
And, uh, I would say that there— I don't know to what extent, uh, an ability to detach yourself from the crowd, for example, I don't know to what extent that's innate or to what extent that's learned, but that's a quality you need.
我完全同意你说的，特别高的 IQ 并不是必须的。
I would agree totally with you that a, a great, a great IQ is not needed.
我是说，作为投资者想做得好，根本不需要聪明到非常惊人的程度。
I mean, you do not have to be terrifically smart to do well as an investor at all.
我会说，你这一点百分之百说对了，我最早确实是从 Graham 那里学到的，而且是非常、非常深刻地学到的；后来我又从 Phil Fisher 那里学到了一些额外的东西，也从 Charlie 那里学到了很多。
I would say you're 100% right that I learned from Graham first in a very, very big way, and I learned something additionally from Phil Fisher, and I learned a lot from Charlie.
而这一点，其实从我的业绩记录里就能看出来。
And the proof is in my record, actually.
我十一岁到十九岁那段时间，一直在读 Garfield Drew、Edwards and Magee，还有各种各样的——我是说，我把能找到的每一本书都读了——还有 Gerald M. Loeb。
From 11 to 19, I was reading Garfield Drew and Edwards and Magee and all kinds of— I mean, I read every book—Gerald M. Loeb.
我是说，关于投资的书，有一本算一本，我全都读了，但我那时候做得一点都不好。
I mean, I read every book there was on investments, and I didn't do well at all.
而且我当时并没有真正成型的投资哲学。
And I had no real investment philosophy.
我只是尝试了很多不同的东西。
I had a lot of things I tried.
不过我玩得很开心。
I was having a lot of fun.
我那时候赚不到钱。
I wasn't making any money.
后来我在一九四九年或者五零年，准确说是一九四九年，我在 University of Nebraska 的时候，读了 Ben 的书。
And I read Ben's book in 1949 or '50, '49, when I was at the University of Nebraska.
那本书实际上彻底改变了我对投资的整个看法。
And, and that actually just changed my whole view of investing.
说到底，它基本上是在告诉我，要把股票看成一家企业的一部分。
And really, that basically told me to think about a stock as a part of a business.
现在听起来这好像太 obvious 了，你可能会说，你知道，为什么要把这件事看成什么 Rosetta Stone 呢？
Now, that seems so obvious, you can say, you know, that, that why should you regard that as a, as, as the Rosetta Stone?
但从某种意义上说，它还真就是那块 Rosetta Stone。
But it is the Rosetta Stone in a sense.
一旦你在自己的思维系统里真正装进这样一个观念：你看的不是那些在图表上上下波动的东西，也不是别人塞给你的小消息，说什么买这个吧，因为它下周要涨了，或者要拆股了，或者股息要提高了，诸如此类；而是你买的是一家企业，那你就已经为今后用理性的方式去思考投资打下了基础。
It, uh, once you crank into your mental apparatus that you're not looking at things that wiggle up and down on charts or that people send you little missives on, you know, saying buy this because it's going up next week or it's going to split or the dividend's going to get increased or whatever, but instead, you're buying a business, that you've now set a foundation for going on and thinking rationally about investing.
而且这么做并不需要你有特别高的 IQ。
And there's no reason why you need a high IQ to do that.
也没有什么理由说你非得天生就具备某种特质。
There's no reason why you have to be born in some way.
不过我确实觉得，有些跟 temperament 有关的东西，可能是天生的。
I do think there's certain matters of temperament that may be innate.
当然它们也可能是后天学来的，也可能会随着你的经历不断被强化；一部分是天生的，但在人生过程中，又会被你的各种经验进一步加强。
And they may be learned, they may be intensified by experience as you go on, partially innate but then reinforced in various ways by your experience as you go through life.
但这一点极其重要。
But that's enormously important.
我的意思是，你必须得现实。
I mean, you have to be realistic.
你得非常准确地界定自己的能力圈。
You have to just define your circle of competence accurately.
你得知道自己不知道什么，而且不要被那些东西诱惑。
You have to know what you don't know and not get enticed by it.
你不能——我觉得你得对钱有兴趣，不然你不可能擅长投资。
You can't be— You have to have an interest in money, I think, or you won't be good at investing.
但我也觉得，如果你太贪，那就会变成一场灾难，因为贪婪会压倒理性。
But I think if you're very greedy, it'll be a disaster because that will overcome rationality.
不过我认为，我当年读的那些书，确实塑造了我——塑造了我看待企业和投资的方式，我觉得它们现在依然同样有效。
But I think, I think the same books I read, uh, and really molded what I— how I thought about businesses and investing, I think that they're just as valid now.
我是说，在过去二十五年里，我没看到什么新东西——反正大多数书我都会随手翻一翻。
I mean, I haven't seen anything in the last 25 years, and I read— I glance through most of the books anyway.
就投资的基本方法来说，也就是把股票当成企业来思考，再去想什么样的企业才是好企业，在这一点上，我还没见过有什么能比 Graham 和 Fisher 更进一步的。
I've seen nothing to improve on Graham and Fisher in terms of the basic approach of going about investing, which is to think about stocks as businesses and then think about what makes a good business.
实际上，投资也就这些东西，再加上 Ben 讲的 safety margin，等等。
And really, that's all there is to investing and having a margin of safety, which Ben talks about, and so on.
它——它不是一个复杂的过程，但它绝对需要纪律。
It's— it's not a complicated process, but it definitely requires discipline.
它要求你把自己和大众意见隔离开来。
It requires insulating yourself from popular opinion.
你就是不能——你根本不能去在意那些东西。
You just, you simply cannot, you can't pay any attention to it.
那些东西根本没有任何意义。
It just doesn't mean anything.
所以你不能老想着去听一大堆人告诉你这个那个，那纯粹是在浪费时间。
So you can't, the idea of listening to lots of people tell you things and all that, it's just a waste of time.
而且说真的，你还不如就安安静静坐下来，自己稍微想一想。
And then, you know, you'd be better off just sitting and thinking a little bit.
我的意思是，你知道，那些做定制相框的公司，根本就没有什么 analyst report。
I mean, there were, there were no analyst reports on custom frame makers, you know.
而且就算有，也不会有什么用。
It just doesn't— and they wouldn't have been any good anyway.
你就是得自己思考。
You just have to think.
但你得从企业本身的商业特性去想这些问题，比如它们投入资本能赚多少钱，诸如此类的东西。
But you have to think about them in terms of their business characteristics and what they can earn on capital employed and that sort of thing.
我会去读，你知道，我会去读 Graham 和 Phil Fisher 的书，然后再读很多年报，去思考这些企业，并且尽量想清楚，哪些企业是你看得懂的，哪些是你看不懂的。
I would just read the, you know, I would read the Graham and the Phil Fisher books and then read lots of annual reports, think about businesses, and try and think about which businesses you understand and which you don't understand.
而且你没必要把它们全都搞懂。
And you don't have to understand them all.
那些你看不懂的，干脆就别碰。
Just forget about the ones that you don't understand.
Charlie？
Charlie?
对，更深一层、更抽象一点来说，如果你对搞清楚事情为什么会发生有一种强烈的兴趣，你就会一直试着去弄明白这个世界，去想为什么这件事会发生，或者为什么那件事没有发生。
Yeah, at a deeper level of generality, if you have a passionate interest in knowing why things are happening, you always are trying to figure out the world in terms of why is this happening or why is this not happening.
这种思维方式如果长期保持下来，会一点一点地提升你应对现实的能力。
That cast of mind kept over long periods gradually improves your ability to cope with reality.
如果你没有这种思维方式，我觉得你大概率注定会失败，哪怕你的 IQ 相当高。
And if you don't have that cast of mind, I think you're destined probably for failure, even if you've got a pretty high IQ.
对，我会说，我们看到投资结果和 IQ 之间的相关性其实相当小。
Yeah, I would say we've seen relatively little correlation between investment results and IQ.
我的意思不是说，外面有一大堆 IQ 只有八十的人，表现好得不得了；但确实有各种各样 IQ 很高的人，最后也一事无成。
I mean, not that there are a whole bunch of people out there with 80 IQs that are knocking, you know, the cover off the ball, but there are all kinds of people with high IQs that get no place.
而且从某种意义上说，去研究那些高 IQ 的人为什么没有成功，可能更有意思；然后把那些因素一项项剔除掉，再看看你能不能也把自己身上的这些因素剔除掉，最后留下真正有效的那部分。
And you have— it's probably, in a sense, it's more interesting to look at why people with high IQs don't succeed, and then sort of cast out those factors and see if you can cast them out in yourself and leave a residual that will work.
因为如果你，你知道，就像 Charlie 老说的那样，我只想知道我会死在哪儿，这样我就永远不去那个地方。
Because if you, you know, it's like Charlie always says, you know, all I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there.
所以，对。
So, yeah.
如果你去研究那些在财务上死掉的人，你知道，明明 IQ 很高，却还是失败了，然后去问，他们为什么会死？
If you study the people who die financially, you know, with high IQs and say, why do they die?
你就会发现，在大多数案例里，都有一些压倒性的共同特征。
You know, you'll see certain overwhelming characteristics that are present in most of the cases.
你只需要确保，要么你本身没有这些特征；要么如果你有，那你得能把它们去掉，或者以某种方式控制住。
And you just got to make sure that either you don't possess them, or if you do possess them, that you can get rid of them or control them in some manner.
第三区。
Area 3.