M10:00
就在这个美妙的梦想一步步实现的时候，大概进行到三分之一的时候，我们面临了一个真正需要做出抉择的时刻。
While this marvelous dream was being played out, roughly a third of the way through it, we faced this real moment of decision.
然后我们进入了一场较量——如果切到下一张幻灯片的话。
And we entered into a contest that— if we'll go to the next slide.
好。
Okay.
我做了一个估算。
I made an estimate.
他们实际上让这个国家十八岁到六十岁之间的男性，大约有百分之六被杀死了。
They literally killed roughly 6% of the males in the country who were between 18 and 60.
我这里假设，这场战争的死亡人数超过了六十万。
I'm assuming that there were more than 600,000 deaths in the war.
我觉得这样估算是合理的，就是说，那个十八岁到六十岁的群体里，男性显然占了绝大多数。
And I think it's a reasonable estimate that, that, uh, that 18 to 60 group was— males were by far the great proportion.
所以你想象一下，一个国家正处在劳动黄金年龄段的男性，有百分之六被彻底抹掉了。
So imagine 6% of your working prime-age, uh, males in the country are wiped out.
对。
Yeah.
就在四年里。
In 4 years.
所以，当我们回头看这个国家的发展，再想想我们现在自己的问题时，我只是想请大家认真想一想，然后我们切到下一张幻灯片。
So when we look at the progress of this country and we think of our own problems now, uh, I just, uh, ask you to ponder, and we'll move to the next slide.
这放到今天，相当于有四百万同样年龄段的男性
That would be equivalent today to having 4 million males in that same age group
以类似的方式被消灭掉。
similarly wiped out.
所以，这是一次令人难以置信的中断，但这个国家还是挺过来了，同时继续构筑着这个 American dream。它是世界奇迹之一，也许从很多意义上说，就是这个世界上的奇迹。
So that was one incredible interruption which this country nevertheless worked through while compiling this American dream that is one of the wonders of the world, perhaps the wonder of the world in many senses.
那么，呃，我们再来看另一场以不同形式冲击这个国家的危机。
So, uh, let's move on to another crisis of a different sort that hit the country.
这当然就是一九二九年的股灾，随后引发了 Great Depression。
And this, of course, is the 1929 crash, which led to the Great Depression.
这里，呃，我们会一直用 Dow Jones Average 来看——因为在那个时候，大家关注的就是这个指数。
And, um, here, um, the Dow Jones Average, which we'll use through this— at that time, that's the one everybody paid attention to.
其实，在当时如果你去看报纸，第二重要的平均指数是 New York Times Average，不过现在已经消失了。
Actually, the second most important average at that time, if you look at the papers, was the New York Times Average, which has disappeared.
当然，Standard & Poor's 大概会认为他们的指标是更好的衡量尺度。
And of course, Standard & Poor's has, uh, probably regarded this as a superior, uh, yardstick.
不过，Dow Jones 也是一个完全够用的衡量标准。
But the Dow Jones is a perfectly adequate yardstick.
到一九二九年九月三日，Dow Jones Average 收在三百八十一点一七，人们当时都非常开心。
And on September 3rd, 1929, the Dow Jones Average closed at 381.17, and people were very happy.
而且在咆哮的二十年代，用保证金买股票效果好得不得了；再加上汽车时代成熟起来了，航空旅行的时代也开始到来，还有各种各样的新家电，电话也越来越普及，这一切都让人感觉特别好。
And buying stocks on margin had worked wonderfully in the Roaring '20s, had a good feeling to it with the auto coming of age and the day of air travel coming along and all kinds of new appliances and the telephone getting wider use.
信不信由你，在那之前，电话其实还没有真正那么普及，不过电影开始兴起了。
Believe it or not, it hadn't really, uh, caught on that much, uh, prior thereto, but the movies were coming on.
那是一个让人觉得很愉快的时代。
It was a happy place.