M10:20
你可能很难相信这一点，但 Charlie 和我从来不会对市场有任何看法，因为那种看法根本没什么用，而且还可能干扰我们那些真正有用的判断。
You may have trouble believing this, but Charlie and I never have an opinion about the market because it wouldn't be any good, and it might interfere with the opinions we have that are good.
如果我们对一家企业的判断是对的，如果我们觉得一家企业很有吸引力，那我们要是因为猜市场接下来会怎么走，或者类似这种事情，而不去采取行动，那就太愚蠢了，因为我们根本不知道。
If we're right about a business, if we think a business is attractive, it would be very foolish for us to not take action on that because we thought something about what the market was going to do or anything of that sort, because we just don't know.
把你真正知道、而且能赚钱的东西放弃掉，去换一个你不知道、而且也不可能知道的东西，这对我们来说根本——根本讲不通，而且对我们也真的没什么影响。
And to give up something that you do know and that is profitable for something that you don't know and won't know because of that, it just doesn't— it doesn't make any sense to us, and it doesn't really make any difference to us.
我是说，我买的第一只股票，我想，大概是在一九四二年四月，那时候我十一岁。
I mean, I bought my first stock, I think, in probably April of 1942 when I was 11.
然后，呃，从那以后——我是说，事实上，在那个时候，World War II 的形势看起来可不怎么好。
And, uh, since then— I mean, actually, World War II didn't look so good at that time.
我是说，前景确实不怎么样。
I mean, the prospects, they really didn't.
我是说，你知道，当时我们在 Pacific 战场打得并不好，而且我也不确定，我买那三股的时候有没有把这个算进去。
I mean, you know, we were not doing well in the Pacific, and I'm not sure I calculated that into my purchase of my 3 shares.
但是——我是说，你想想从那以后发生了多少事情，atomic weapons、重大战争、总统辞职，还有各种各样的事，在某些时候还出现过严重的通货膨胀。
But they— I mean, just think of all the things that have happened since then, you know, atomic weapons and major wars and presidents resigning and all kinds of things, massive inflation at certain times.
因为去猜某种宏观层面会发生什么，就放弃你本来做得很好的事情，这对我们来说实在是没有道理。
To give up what you're doing well, because of guesses about what's going to happen in some macro way just doesn't make any sense to us.
从 Berkshire 的角度来说，随着时间推移，最好的情况其实是——我们不是希望别人这样——但就是市场出现大幅下跌。
The best thing that can happen from Berkshire's standpoint— we don't wish this on anybody— but over time, is to have markets that go down a tremendous amount.
我是说，长期来看，我们会一直是买东西的人。
I mean, we are going to be buyers of things over time.
如果你长期都要买 groceries，那你当然希望食品杂货的价格往下走。
If you're going to be buyers of groceries over time, you like grocery prices to go down.
如果你长期都要买车，那你当然希望车价往下走。
If you're going to be buying cars over time, you like car prices to go down.
我们买企业，我们买企业的一部分，也就是股票；如果我们能用有吸引力的价格买到这些东西，那我们的处境会比买不到便宜货要好得多。
We buy businesses, we buy pieces of businesses, stocks, and we're going to be much better off if we can buy those things at an attractive price than if we can't.
所以我们完全不害怕。
So we don't have any fear at all.
我是说，我们真正担心的是一种非理性的牛市，而且这种牛市还持续很长一段时间。
I mean, what we fear is an irrational bull market that's sustained for some long period of time.
你们作为 Berkshire 的股东，除非你们是借钱买的股票，或者准备在很短时间内把它卖掉，否则如果股价更便宜，对你们反而更有利，因为那意味着我们能代表你们做出比其他情况下更聪明的投资决策。
You, as shareholders of Berkshire, unless you own your shares on borrowed money or are going to sell them in a very short period of time, are better off if stocks get cheaper, because it means that we can be doing more intelligent things on your behalf than would be the case otherwise.
所以我——不过我们根本不知道会怎么样——而且我们也不在乎别人是怎么想的。
So I— but we have no idea what— and we wouldn't care what anybody thought about it.
我是说，最不在乎的其实就是我们自己怎么想。
I mean, most of all ourselves.
我是说，这——。
I mean, that's—.