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1998年股东大会 · 年轻人问巴芒:我应该什么时候买房子?

40 段 · 3 位说话人 · 原片 3:31
M1
M10:00

你好,我叫 Nelson Arata。

Hello, my name is Nelson Arata.

我来自 Southern California,有一个问题想问。

I'm from Southern California and I have a question.

这其实和内在价值,或者那些股票方面的东西没太大关系,主要是想问问房子的事。

It's not really related to intrinsic value or any of that stock stuff, but more on houses.

我现在还比较年轻,还没有房子,但我在考虑,也许很快有一天会买一套房。

I'm still quite young, I don't have a house yet, and I'm thinking about buying a house someday soon.

而要买房的话,我得先付一笔首付款。

And in order to do that, I'm going to have to put a down payment.

这就意味着,我可能得卖掉手里的股票。

Which means I might have to sell my shares.

所以我想请问,你们能不能谈谈,什么时候是买房的最佳时机?首付款应该付多少?这要怎么结合利率、手头可用现金,还有股市的情况来考虑?

And I was wondering if you can provide some insight on when is the best time to buy a house and how much down payment you should be putting down in relation to interest rates and also in relation to available cash and the stock market.
M2
M20:48

好,Charlie 马上就会回答你这个问题。

Well, Charlie's going to give you an answer to that in a second.

我先讲个故事吧。那是我结婚的时候,当时我们手里大概有一万美元作为起点。

I'll just relate one story, which was when I got married. We did have about $10,000 starting off.

我对 Susie 说,好,你知道,我们有两个选择。

And I told Susie, I said, now, you know, there's two choices.

由你来决定。

It's up to you.

我们可以要么买一套房,那会用光我所有的资本,让我一无所有,就像一个木匠被人拿走了工具一样;要么你就让我继续用这些钱去做投资,说不定将来,谁知道呢,我甚至能买一套比原本买得起的更大一点的房子。

You can—we can either buy a house, which will use up all my capital and clean me out, and it'll be like a carpenter who's had his tools taken away from him, or you can let me work on this and someday, who knows, maybe I'll even buy a little bit larger house than would otherwise be the case.

所以在这一点上,她非常通情达理。

So she was very understanding on that point.

我们一直等到了 1956 年。

And we waited until 1956.

我们是 1952 年结的婚。

We got married in 1952.

后来我决定买房,那时首付款大概只占我净资产的百分之十左右,因为我确实觉得,手里的资本应该拿去做其他事情。不过,那时候能买到什么房子,和现在完全是两种环境。

And I decided to buy a house when the down payment was about 10% or so of my net worth because I really felt I wanted to use the capital for other purposes, but that was a way different environment in terms of what was available to buy.

实际上,如果你已经找到了自己想买的房子,我绝对相信,直接去把这件事办成就好。不过从某种意义上说,你这样做可能相当于获得了百分之七到百分之八左右的回报。

In effect, if you have the house you want to buy, I definitely believe in just going out and probably getting the job done, but in effect, you're probably making something in the area of a 7 or 8% return.

好。

Okay.

也就是说,你买房这件事本身,实际上就相当于一项投资。

Investment implicitly when you do it.

所以,你得根据这些因素,自己算出适合你的答案。

So, you know, you'll have to figure out your own equation from that.

Charlie 在这方面可能有更好的建议。

Charlie probably has better advice on that.

不管从哪个意义上说,他都是个重量级的房主。

He's a big homeowner in both senses of the word.

我觉得,买房的时机就是你需要房子的时候。

I think the time to buy a house is when you need one.

那什么时候才算需要房子呢?

And when do you need one?

这个问题上,我的想法也比较老派。

Well, I have very old-fashioned ideas on that too.

单身的人,我不在乎他们这辈子买不买房。

The single people, I don't care if they ever get a house.

Charlie,如果你结婚了,什么时候才算需要房子?

When do you need one if you're married, Charlie?

我再补充一句。

I'll follow up here for a minute.

就是你太太想要房子的时候。

You need one when your wife wants one.

对,没错,我觉得你说得完全正确。

Yeah, yes, I think you've got that exactly right.
M3
M33:04

Crawford 先生?

Mr. Crawford?

哎。

Yeah.

我可以播报一则通知吗?

May I make an announcement?

当然可以。

Sure.

请 Gregory Crawford 到保安办公室,有紧急消息找他。

Gregory Crawford needs to go to the security office, please, for an emergency message.

请 Gregory Crawford 到保安办公室,有紧急消息找他。

Gregory Crawford to the security office for an emergency message.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好。

Okay.
M2
M23:20

希望不是什么 margin call。

Hope it isn't a margin call.

好,接下来请到一区。

Okay, we'll go to Zone 1, please.